Ole Miss 41-38 Louisville (Sep 6, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Louisville · Ole Miss

Liberty Mutual Music City Kickoff

No. 24 Louisville0-138

No. 9 Ole Miss1-041Final

Sun, Sep 6 · Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tenn. (neutral site) · Crowd 57,390

No. 9 Ole Miss beat No. 24 Louisville 41-38.

We had Ole Miss favored. It won.

Next: Louisville beat Villanova 59-13, Fri Sep 11

Next: Ole Miss beat Charlotte 41-9, Sat Sep 12

Top comment in the game thread

A lot of time left, even without any timeouts. Ole Miss on their heels. Gotta play all 60:01.

Q4 3:09 · r/CFB game thread · Sun, Sep 6

How it swung

The turning point: Chambliss 18-yd pass to Odom (Q4, 0:42). Ole Miss went from 69% to 86% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ole Miss a 77% chance, and the closing betting line (Ole Miss was a 6.5-point favorite) put it at 70%.

Favored the whole way: Ole Miss never fell below 52%.

Louisville never had better than a 48% chance.

FinalOle Miss 41-38 LouisvilleOle Miss wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 0:42Chambliss 18-yd pass to OdomOle Miss 69% → 86% (+17)
2Q4 0:00Carneiro 48-yd field goal, Ole Miss goes ahead 41-38Ole Miss 83% → 100% (+17)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 0:42Chambliss 18-yd pass to OdomLouisville 31% → 14% (−17)
2Q4 0:00Carneiro 48-yd field goal, Ole Miss goes ahead 41-38Louisville 17% → 0% (−17)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 7:19The center kept making high snaps during the game.What the hell is happening with this centerr/CFB game thread
Q3 1:01Fans argue over cameraman focusing on Kienholz's mother in the crowdLet’s circle back to that blonde smoke show in the crowdr/CFB game thread
Q4 10:34Fans argue a roughing the kicker call on Louisville's field goal attempt is a bad penaltyCollege football is just refs doing whatever they can to make sure the big ten and SEC winr/CFB game threadWhy are you even risking a flag like that on a 57 yard attempt? Just stay away from the kickerr/CFB game thread
Q4 4:42Louisville fans panic over lack of timeouts after Kienholz connects with McCoy for a 54-yard touchdownKienholz is going to be fine. This is a huge game for his first start and he’s been getting steadier throughout the game. Kids got guts.r/CFB game thread
Q4 3:09Fans criticize ESPN for showing field goal range and mock Ole Miss tacklingQuoted at the top of the page.Ole miss is doing some of the worst tackling ive ever seenr/CFB game thread
Q4 3:09Louisville ties the game 38-38 with 1:28 left, sending fans into overtime speculationMan I would've accepted and gone for twor/CFB game thread

Ole Miss’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Ole Miss -6.5), at 77% for Ole Miss (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Ole Miss or Louisville flair (1,022 and 791); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Ole Miss’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Ole Miss scored on 7 of its 13 drives; Louisville on 7 of its 14.

Ole Miss’s drives are teal, Louisville’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Louisville’s side

Louisville’s best moment: Richardson 30-yd TD run, Louisville goes ahead 13-10 (Q3 10:51). It lifted Louisville’s win chance by 16 points.

How Louisville fans took it: “bittersweet to lose that but fun game. ggs rebs” r/CFB game thread

“All the hate watchers who celebrated our demise for like 5 minutes can shut up again for now”

An Ole Miss fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The final stretch is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was loud.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Louisville fans

brohm““No more concerns for Jeff Brohm in the FG game” SHUT UP ANNOUNCERS. But I’m glad he’s done good so far tonight”

timeouts“Remember how we started the half with three timeouts? Be really cool if we had those now.”

start“The delay of game and false start were so they could get the Liberty Mutual logo in view”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, ball, half, don.

What it cost

Ole Miss’s chance to make the playoff fell from 43% to 34%.

Make the playoff

Louisville · lost6% → ▼2%

Ole Miss · won43% → ▼34%

Win the conference

Louisville · lost4% → ▼2%

Ole Miss · won8% → ▼4%

Win the title

Louisville · lost0% → 0%

Ole Miss · won3% → ▼2%

Before the game (September 5, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Ole Miss 41, Louisville 38

Louisville covered +6.5 by 3.5. The total, 79, went over 54.5.

Team totals	Louisville	Ole Miss
Total yards	469	488
Passing	18 of 29, 307 yds	21 of 37, 336 yds
Rushing	39 for 162 yds	41 for 152 yds
First downs	20	24
Third down	7 of 16	6 of 16
Fourth down	0 of 1	1 of 2
Turnovers	0	2
Penalties	9 for 82 yds	6 for 60 yds
Time of possession	30:58	29:02

Louisville leaders

Passing Lincoln Kienholz 18 of 29, 307 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Lincoln Kienholz 14 for 69 yds, 1 TD; Keyjuan Brown 7 for 56 yds
Receiving Tre Richardson 4 for 83 yds, 1 TD; Treyshun Hurry 4 for 67 yds

Ole Miss leaders

Passing Trinidad Chambliss 21 of 36, 336 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Kewan Lacy 17 for 61 yds, 1 TD; Trinidad Chambliss 9 for 60 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Deuce Alexander 5 for 159 yds, 2 TD; Caleb Odom 3 for 66 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

86° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 10 mph from the north-northeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 22

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 8:53 left8:54 p.m.

Louisville 13, Ole Miss 17 · Ole Miss 82% to win

no rain · wind 10 mph from the north-northeast, mostly at an angle to the field · 81°

Chambliss 62-yd TD pass to Alexander, Ole Miss goes ahead 17-13

Measured at Nashville Metro airport, 5.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Louisville · 9-4

Rated 61st in our preseason ratings.

W 27-22 vs Toledo #29 of 667

won by 5 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 41-0 vs Kentucky #56 of 667

won by 41 as a 1.5-point underdog

L 6-38 @ SMUTop 25 #11 of 667

lost by 32 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 19-20 vs ClemsonTop 25 #28 of 667

lost by 1 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 26-29 vs California #83 of 667

lost by 3 as an 18.5-point favorite

W 28-16 @ Virginia Tech #80 of 667

won by 12 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 38-24 vs Boston College #99 of 667

won by 14 as a 25.5-point favorite

W 24-21 @ MiamiTop 25 #7 of 667

won by 3 as a 10.5-point underdog

L 27-30 vs VirginiaTop 25 #38 of 667

lost by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 34-27 @ PittsburghTop 25 #63 of 667

won by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 40-17 vs Bowling Green #98 of 667

won by 23 as a 25.5-point favorite

W 28-14 vs James MadisonTop 25 #76 of 667

won by 14 as a 15.5-point favorite

W 51-17 vs Eastern Kentucky #159 of 667

won by 34 as a 37.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Ole Miss · 13-2

Rated 12th in our preseason ratings.

L 27-31 vs MiamiTop 25 #5 of 667

lost by 4 as a 3-point underdog

W 39-34 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #7 of 667

won by 5 as a 6-point underdog

W 41-10 vs TulaneTop 25 #51 of 667

won by 31 as a 16.5-point favorite

W 38-19 @ Mississippi State #61 of 667

won by 19 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 34-24 vs FloridaTop 25 #35 of 667

won by 10 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 49-0 vs The Citadel #212 of 667

won by 49 as a 52.5-point favorite

W 30-14 vs South CarolinaTop 25 #38 of 667

won by 16 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 34-26 @ OklahomaTop 25 #16 of 667

won by 8 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 35-43 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #5 of 667

lost by 8 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 24-21 vs Washington State #92 of 667

won by 3 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 24-19 vs LSUTop 25 #11 of 667

won by 5 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 45-10 vs TulaneTop 25 #54 of 667

won by 35 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 41-35 vs Arkansas #18 of 667

won by 6 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 30-23 @ Kentucky #29 of 667

won by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 63-7 vs Georgia State #101 of 667

won by 56 as a 33.5-point favorite

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Ole Miss’s passing EPA against Louisville, 65 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Louisville’s EPA/play against Ole Miss’s defense
Louisville offense, 93rd percentile · Ole Miss defense, 30th
Louisville’s explosive plays against Ole Miss’s defense
Louisville offense, 97th percentile · Ole Miss defense, 39th
Ole Miss’s passing EPA against Louisville’s defense
Ole Miss offense, 86th percentile · Louisville defense, 21st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

LouisvilleOle Miss

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Ole Miss leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2021 · Ole Miss won the last meeting

2021 · neutral siteOle Miss 43-24

Each line is Ole Miss’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Louisville fans are in a better mood than Ole Miss fans (71st vs 0th among FBS fanbases), even with Ole Miss favored.

Ole Miss favored by 6.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

Ole Miss by 6.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Louisville.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

No. 9 Ole Miss beats No. 24 Louisville 41-38