Fan take
Ole Miss fans
Louisville fans
What’s at stake
Ole Miss
- Ole Miss sits at 31% to make the CFP field — 34% with a win here, 20% with a loss.
- Ole Miss is the program that finally figured out how to win the SEC by not pretending to be Alabama.
Louisville
- Louisville is ranked #24, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- A win would be one of Louisville’s biggest of the season — a 51-spot gap in the power ratings.
The series
Ole Miss leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2021 · Ole Miss has won the last 2
- 2026 · neutral siteOle Miss 41–38
- 2021 · neutral siteOle Miss 43–24
Best players
Ole Miss
- Deuce Alexander (WR) · 159 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 37th (+10000)
- Trinidad Chambliss (QB) · 336 passing yards — Heisman odds: 7th (+1100)
- Keaton Thomas (LB) · 8 tackles
Louisville
- Lincoln Kienholz (QB) · 307 passing yards — Heisman odds: 32nd (+5500)
- T.J. Capers (LB) · 7 tackles
- Koen Entringer (DB) · 7 tackles
The line, and the room
Louisville fans are feeling better about their season (71st percentile) than Ole Miss fans are (0th) — even with Ole Miss favored here.
- Model · 77%
- Market · 70%
- Ole Miss fans · 0th
- Louisville fans · 71st
Home −6.5 · O/U 55.5
Conditions
88°F · 9 mph wind · Clear
Louisville 38 – Ole Miss 41
Called it — picked Ole Miss to win.
16 lead changes. The winner fell to 13%.
The thread's loudest minute was 00:33 — 83 comments, 27.7× its usual pace.
comments / minutehome win probabilitymoment
Comments per minute in the r/CFB game thread, 22:30–00:34 UTC (679 collected). The chart ends where the collected thread ends.
- Q4The turn
51 points to Louisville — 35% to 87%.
Lincoln Kienholz 7 Yd Run (Carson Hilbert Kick) - Q4The answer
45 points to Ole Miss — 13% to 58%.
#6 T.Chambliss pass complete short right to #1 D.Alexander caught at Miss39, for 15 yards to the Miss40, End Of Play - BoxThe line
Deuce Alexander (Ole Miss): 5 rec · 159 yds · 2 TD
Top 1% receiving yards game since 2021. - AsideThe other thingWhat the hell is happening with this centerr/CFB game thread · ▲ 4The center had multiple high snaps during the game.AI-assisted
Win-probability model: CollegeFootballData. Fan comments are quoted verbatim; the one-line description of the aside is AI-assisted.
Trajectory
Players to watch
Ole Miss
- Deuce Alexander WR159 Receiving yards
- Trinidad Chambliss QB336 Passing yards
- Keaton Thomas LB8 Tackles
- Jaylon Braxton CB8 Tackles
- Tah'j Butler LB6 Tackles
Louisville
- Lincoln Kienholz QB307 Passing yards
- T.J. Capers LB7 Tackles
- Koen Entringer DB7 Tackles
- Tre Richardson WR83 Receiving yards
- Stanquan Clark LB6 Tackles
The market
Book hold: 4.3%
Ole Miss beat Louisville 41-38 — exactly what the pregame pick had.