Georgia at Ole Miss
Georgia (#2, 7‑1) at Ole Miss (#12, 6‑2) — Georgia is favored by 3.5. Georgia’s offense is at the 92nd percentile on efficiency; Ole Miss’s defense is at the 35th.
How they got here
Last three games
Georgia · 7-1
Rated 2nd in our preseason ratings, 4th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Alabama as a 2.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Ole Miss · 6-2
Rated 12th in our preseason ratings, 9th now.
2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: Georgia’s EPA/play against Ole Miss, 57 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Georgia’s EPA/play against Ole Miss’s defense
Georgia offense, 92nd percentile · Ole Miss defense, 35th
Georgia’s passing EPA against Ole Miss’s defense
Georgia offense, 92nd percentile · Ole Miss defense, 45th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Ole Miss projected #9 seed · Georgia projected #1 seed
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
The series
Georgia leads the series 34-15-1
50 meetings since 1940 · Ole Miss won the last meeting
- 2025 · neutral siteOle Miss 39-34
- 2025Georgia 43-35
- 2024Ole Miss 28-10
- 2023Georgia 52-17
- 2016Ole Miss 45-14
Each line is Ole Miss’s chance to win through that meeting. Ole Miss is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Georgia
The chip · vs the national mediaThe growing take that the regular-season machine can't close in January anymore — that the Smart dynasty peaked at two. The fanbase has heard it three straight winters, and it stings precisely because it isn't yet refutable.
What this game touches
The can't-finish-it stretch since the back-to-back. After closing a 41-year title loop in 2021-22, three straight seasons of SEC dominance have ended short of the mountaintop — the 2024 quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame, then a 39-34 Sugar Bowl loss to Ole Miss in 2025.
Ole Miss
The chip · vs the blue bloodsFor decades the fanbase heard that Oxford was a tailgate with a football team attached — a beautiful place that didn't win enough to deserve the Grove. They point now at a 13-2 Playoff team and dare anyone to say it again.
Best players
Georgia
- Raylen Wilson (LB) · 51 tackles
- Chris Cole (LB) · 49 tackles
- Gunner Stockton (QB) · 1,671 passing yards — Heisman odds: 10th (+2400)
Ole Miss
- Deuce Alexander (WR) · 669 receiving yards
- Trinidad Chambliss (QB) · 2,189 passing yards — Heisman odds: 5th (+1200)
- Keaton Thomas (LB) · 51 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Gunner Stockton (QB) — Georgia’s leading passer (1,671 passing yards) takes on Ole Miss’s pass defense (45th percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Ole Miss fans are in a better mood than Georgia fans (50th percentile vs 7th among FBS fanbases), even with Georgia favored.
Georgia favored by 3.5 · Total 56.5
Georgia by 3.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Georgia’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 94, 3:30 pm Saturdays 87
Georgia at Ole Miss · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 7:30 pm ET · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium: noon Saturdays score 88, 3:30 pm 87, 7:30 pm 94.
- noon: 88, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Ole Miss is worth +5.4 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 70th percentile.
75% at home, 46% on the road against FBS opponents (40-13 home, 18-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.5 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 353 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Ole Miss
- Wk 4Lat Florida28-52
- Wk 6Wat Vanderbilt52-17
- Wk 7Wvs Missouri31-3
- Wk 8Lat Texas27-34
- Wk 9Wvs Auburn45-15
Georgia
- Wk 4Wvs Oklahoma41-13
- Wk 5Wvs Vanderbilt38-14
- Wk 6Wat Alabama20-17
- Wk 7Lvs Auburn24-27
- Wk 9Wvs Florida27-8
Power rating by week
Georgia is rated 2.1 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Ole Miss.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +4.5 → +3.5 · Total: 55.5 → 56.5
The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Georgia 43, Ole Miss 35Oct 18, 2025
Our History pages cover 4 of their meetings since 2016.