Ole Miss at Texas
Ole Miss (#7, 5‑1) travels to Texas (#19, 4‑2), with Texas favored by 3.5. The model gives Texas a 61% shot. Ole Miss’s offense is at the 24th percentile on explosive plays; Texas’s defense is at the 98th.
How they got here
Last three games
Ole Miss · 5-1
Rated 12th in our preseason ratings, 12th now.
2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
Texas · 4-2
Rated 5th in our preseason ratings, 6th now.
1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: Ole Miss’s explosive plays against Texas, 74 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Ole Miss’s explosive plays against Texas’s defense
Ole Miss offense, 24th percentile · Texas defense, 98th
Texas’s rushing EPA against Ole Miss’s defense
Texas offense, 10th percentile · Ole Miss defense, 46th
Texas’s success rate against Ole Miss’s defense
Texas offense, 45th percentile · Ole Miss defense, 29th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Texas projected #5 seed · Ole Miss projected #10 seed
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of October 23, 2026
The series
Texas leads the series 6-2
8 meetings since 1912 · Ole Miss won the last meeting
- 2013Ole Miss 44-23
- 2012Texas 66-31
- 1966 · neutral siteTexas 19-0
- 1961 · neutral siteTexas 12-7
- 1957 · neutral siteOle Miss 39-7
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Ole Miss
The chip · vs the blue bloodsFor decades the fanbase heard that Oxford was a tailgate with a football team attached — a beautiful place that didn't win enough to deserve the Grove. They point now at a 13-2 Playoff team and dare anyone to say it again.
Texas
The chip · vs the national mediaEvery flicker of struggle reignites the punchline the program wore for a decade — 'Texas is back?' said with a smirk. The fanbase uses it on itself now, but it wants to bury it for good.
What this game touches
The 2025 letdown — and the decade that made it terrifying. Back-to-back CFP semifinals had Texas all the way back; then Arch Manning's first full year as starter ended outside the Playoff in 2025 (a New Year's bowl win over Michigan the consolation) — a flicker of the decade-long collapse the program spent years clawing out of.
Best players
Ole Miss
- Deuce Alexander (WR) · 523 receiving yards
- Trinidad Chambliss (QB) · 1,676 passing yards — Heisman odds: 5th (+600)
- Luke Ferrelli (LB) · 37 tackles
Texas
- Rasheem Biles (LB) · 49 tackles
- Jelani McDonald (DB) · 42 tackles
- Justin Cryer (LB) · 38 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Ole Miss: Trinidad Chambliss (1,676 passing yards); Texas: Arch Manning (1,298 passing yards).
The spread has moved 5.0 points toward Ole Miss since opening (−8.5 → −3.5).
The betting line, and the fans
Ole Miss fans are in a better mood than Texas fans (30th vs 9th among FBS fanbases), even with Texas favored.
Texas favored by 3.5 · Total 53.5
Texas by 3.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Texas’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Warm. No coat needed.
Ole Miss at Texas · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 7:30 pm ET · ABC · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
- 82°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 15 mphwind gusts
- 95weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 77, 3:30 pm 77, 7:30 pm 93.
- noon: 77, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 77, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Texas is worth +7.3 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 94th percentile.
81% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (44-10 home, 22-13 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.4 at home vs. away over 89 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 555 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Texas
- Wk 2Wvs Ohio State24-23
- Wk 3Wvs UTSA30-6
- Wk 4Wat Tennessee20-17
- Wk 6Lat Oklahoma24-27
- Wk 7Lvs Florida24-27
Ole Miss
- Wk 2Wvs Charlotte41-9
- Wk 3Wvs LSU32-24
- Wk 4Lat Florida28-52
- Wk 6Wat Vanderbilt52-17
- Wk 7Wvs Missouri31-3
Power rating by week
Texas is rated 0.8 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 5 points toward Ole Miss.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −8.5 → −3.5 · Total: 54.5 → 53.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.