No. 1 Texas beats UTSA 30-6

UTSA2-16
No. 1 Texas3-030Final
Sat, Sep 19 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas · Crowd 103,753SECN+

No. 1 Texas beat UTSA 30-6.

We had Texas favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

These commentators are so anti Texas it’s insane lmao. “Great coverage” and it’s literally UTSA tackling Coleman while the ball is in the air

Q3 8:05 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Texas a 72% chance, and the closing betting line (Texas was a 29.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Texas led by 7 after the first quarter and by 17 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+24+24

Favored the whole way: Texas never fell below 98%.

UTSA never had better than a 2% chance.

FinalTexas 30-6 UTSATexas wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4TexasWon30-6ScoresTexasUTSATexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 8 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 8 comments a minuteTexas fans: 12 comments a minuteTexas fans: 8 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 10 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 7 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 9 comments a minuteTexas fans: 10 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 3 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 3 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4TexasWon30-6ScoresTexasUTSATexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 8 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 8 comments a minuteTexas fans: 12 comments a minuteTexas fans: 8 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 10 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 7 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 9 comments a minuteTexas fans: 10 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 3 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 3 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4TexasLowest 0%Lost6-30ScoresUTSATexasUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 3 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 3 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 8 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 8 comments a minuteTexas fans: 12 comments a minuteTexas fans: 8 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 10 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 7 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 9 comments a minuteTexas fans: 10 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4TexasLowest 0%Lost6-30ScoresUTSATexasUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 3 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 3 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 8 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 5 comments a minuteTexas fans: 8 comments a minuteTexas fans: 12 comments a minuteTexas fans: 8 comments a minuteTexas fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas fans: 10 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 4 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 7 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 9 comments a minuteTexas fans: 10 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 6 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas fans: 1 comments a minute

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 11:26Manning throws touchdown pass to Coleman as Texas extends lead to 17-3I love Cam Coleman.r/CFB game thread
  2. Q3 8:05Texas fans argue commentators are biased after no pass interference call on Manning pass to ColemanQuoted at the top of the page.Being a Texas fan is absolutely exhausting.. lmaor/CFB game thread
  3. Q3 4:39Fans mock officials for throwing excessive flags during Texas driveHonestly I wouldn't mind if Texas got bumped in the rankings, they haven't looked good and I feel like the longhorns play better when they feel disrespected.r/CFB game threadUTSA is so good they’re making Texas look bad, can we all just agree to that narrative? Please!r/CFB game thread
  4. Q3 0:12Texas fans criticize Manning's incomplete pass and uncalled pass interferenceback in my day they threw flags for pass interferencer/CFB game threadAm I dumb and not understand pass interference?r/CFB game thread
  5. Q4 11:55Fans call a roughing penalty on Texas soft and terribleI’m with Traylor. Wtf was that roughing call? Soft af.r/CFB game threadAbsolutely awful flagr/CFB game thread
  6. Q4 8:57Texas fans worry about Arch Manning's health after a hitThat TD felt dirty considering the penalty that aided Texas.r/CFB game thread
Texas’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Texas -29.5), at 98% for Texas (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Texas or UTSA flair (678 and 144); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

Texas scored on 6 of its 13 drives; UTSA on 2 of its 11.

Texas’s drives are teal, UTSA’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1UTSA: Interception, from 75 yards out to 75InterceptionTexas: Touchdown, from 37 yards out to 0TouchdownUTSA: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 16Field goalTexas: Field goal, from 84 yards out to 34Field goalUTSA: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntQ2Texas: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownUTSA: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntTexas: Turned over on downs, from 55 yards out to 51DownsUTSA: Punt, from 49 yards out to 48PuntTexas: Punt, from 92 yards out to 63PuntUTSA: Punt, from 75 yards out to 85PuntTexas: Field goal, from 52 yards out to 16Field goalTexas: Kickoff, from 65 yards out to 65KickoffQ3Texas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 86PuntUTSA: Field goal, from 35 yards out to 25Field goalTexas: Punt, from 92 yards out to 73PuntUTSA: Punt, from 79 yards out to 75PuntTexas: Field goal, from 39 yards out to 5Field goalUTSA: Punt, from 77 yards out to 78PuntTexas: Turned over on downs, from 51 yards out to 14DownsUTSA: Punt, from 86 yards out to 73PuntQ4Texas: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownUTSA: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntTexas: End of game, from 73 yards out to 31End of game
“Arch completely rattled against UTSA.”
A Texas fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The loudest stretch came in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

A large share of the loudest stretch was about the officiating.

FirstSecondThirdFourthTexas fansUTSA fansusual

What it cost

Texas’s chance to make the playoff rose from 70% to 73%.

Make the playoff

UTSA · lost0% → 0%
Texas · won70% → ▲73%70%▲ 73%

Before the game (September 19, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Texas 30, UTSA 6

UTSA covered +29.5 by 5.5. The total, 36, stayed under 58.5.

UTSATexasTotal yardsUTSA 142Texas 400142400Passing yardsUTSA 70Texas 17270172Rushing yardsUTSA 72Texas 22872228First downsUTSA 9Texas 27927TurnoversUTSA 1Texas 010Time of possessionUTSA 23:09Texas 36:5123:0936:51
Team totalsUTSATexas
Total yards142400
Passing14 of 23, 70 yds18 of 35, 172 yds
Rushing24 for 72 yds48 for 228 yds
First downs927
Third down1 of 117 of 17
Fourth down0 of 00 of 2
Turnovers10
Penalties12 for 115 yds8 for 88 yds
Time of possession23:0936:51

UTSA leaders

  • Passing Owen McCown 14 of 23, 70 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Will Henderson III 10 for 38 yds; Brandon High 5 for 16 yds
  • Receiving Brandon High 3 for 20 yds; DJ Allen 2 for 15 yds

Texas leaders

  • Passing Arch Manning 17 of 33, 164 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Daylan Smothers 10 for 54 yds; Arch Manning 9 for 50 yds
  • Receiving Cam Coleman 4 for 59 yds, 2 TD; Emmett Mosley V 3 for 28 yds

No rain and calm

93° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the southeast, gusts to 14

September game-day temperatures at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Texas favoredUTSA favored100%Win chanceTexasRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Texas favoredUTSA favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:51 left7:03 p.m.
UTSA 0, Texas 0 · Texas 98% to win
no rain · wind 7 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 14 · 92°
McCown intercepted by Biles at the UTSA 30, unsportsmanlike conduct on Texas
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Austin - City/camp Mabry airport, 3.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

UTSA · 2-0

Rated 18th in our preseason ratings, 14th now.

Two straight wins, capped by a 5-point win over Texas State as a 1.5-point underdog.

Last two games

Texas · 2-0

Rated 5th in our preseason ratings, 4th now.

Two straight wins, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.

Week by week

Texas

Wk 1: W 59-7 vs Texas State▲52Texas StateWk 2: W 24-23 vs Ohio State▲1Ohio State
  • Wk 1Wvs Texas State59-7
  • Wk 2Wvs Ohio State24-23

UTSA

Wk 1: W 45-16 vs UT Rio Grande Valley▲29UT Rio Grande ValleyWk 2: W 31-26 at Texas State▲5Texas State
  • Wk 1Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45-16
  • Wk 2Wat Texas State31-26

Power rating by week

Texas is rated 5.8 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

16117Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2TexasUTSA

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UTSA’s explosive plays against Texas, 82 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. UTSA’s explosive plays against Texas’s defense

    82 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UTSA offense, 16th percentile · Texas defense, 98th

  2. UTSA’s passing EPA against Texas’s defense

    27 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UTSA offense, 47th percentile · Texas defense, 74th

  3. UTSA’s success rate against Texas’s defense

    16 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UTSA offense, 71st percentile · Texas defense, 87th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

UTSATexas
EPA/play, offense
UTSA · 77Texas · 20
EPA/play, defense
UTSA · 34Texas · 76
Success rate, offense
UTSA · 71Texas · 45
Success rate, defense
UTSA · 37Texas · 87
Explosive-play rate, offense
UTSA · 16Texas · 28
Explosive-play rate, defense
UTSA · 54Texas · 98
Rush EPA, offense
UTSA · 82Texas · 10
Rush EPA, defense
UTSA · 14Texas · 78
Pass EPA, offense
UTSA · 47Texas · 54
Pass EPA, defense
UTSA · 32Texas · 74

The series

Texas leads the series 2-0

2 meetings since 2022 · Texas has won the last 2

  • 2024Texas 56-7Texas won 56-7 vs UTSA. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.
  • 2022Texas 41-20Texas won 41-20 vs UTSA. Chance to win started at 83%, low 42%, high better than 99%.

Each line is Texas’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

UTSA fans are in a better mood than Texas fans (73rd vs 37th among FBS fanbases), even with Texas favored.

  • Model · 72%
  • Line · 99%
  • Texas fans · 37th
  • UTSA fans · 73rd

Texas favored by 29.5 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

Texas by 29.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The total rose 1 point.

opened 57.5now 58.5

Total: 57.5 → 58.5

The books’ cut: 3.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 92° at kickoff.

UTSA at Texas · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin

  • 92°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 74weather score, Rough
  • Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium that day, a 2:30 pm kickoff would have scored 49, against 74 at 7 pm.

  • 11 am: 57, Rough
  • 11:45 am: 53, Rough
  • 1 pm: 52, Rough
  • 2:30 pm: 49, Harsh
  • 3:30 pm: 51, Rough
  • 6 pm: 66, Rough
  • 6:30 pm: 72, Rough
  • 7 pm: 74, Rough (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Texas is worth +7.3 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 95th percentile.

81% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (44-10 home, 22-13 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.4 at home vs. away over 89 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 75 miles to get here.

Where next