No. 12 Ole Miss routs Auburn 45-15

Auburn4-415
No. 12 Ole Miss6-245Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Miss. · Crowd 67,041SEC Network

No. 12 Ole Miss routed Auburn 45-15.

We had Ole Miss favored. It won.

Next: Auburn vs Arkansas, Sat Nov 7 · 12:45 PM ET · Auburn favored by 10.5

Next: Ole Miss vs Georgia, Sat Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET · Ole Miss underdog by 3.5

Ah yes give me more AI gambling Mr. beast slop ads
An Auburn fan

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ole Miss an 80% chance, and the closing betting line (Ole Miss was a 10.5-point favorite) put it at 80%.

Defensive lineman touchdownOle Miss · Q2 14:57
FinalOle Miss 45-15 AuburnOle Miss wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q482% at halfOle MissWon45-151+11ScoresOle MissAuburnOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: loudOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: loudOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: loudOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: loudest stretchAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quiet
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q482% at halfOle MissWon45-151ScoresOle MissAuburnOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: loudOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: loudOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: loudOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: loudest stretchAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quiet
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q418% at halfOle MissLowest 0%Lost15-451−11ScoresAuburnOle MissAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: loudest stretchAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: loudOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: loudOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: loudOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steady
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q418% at halfOle MissLowest 0%Lost15-451ScoresAuburnOle MissAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: loudest stretchAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: loudAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: steadyAuburn fans: quietAuburn fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: loudOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: loudOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: loudOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: steadyOle Miss fans: quietOle Miss fans: steady

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 14:57Echoles 1-yd TD run, Ole Miss goes ahead 7-0Ole Miss 80% → 91% (+11)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 14:57Echoles 1-yd TD run, Ole Miss goes ahead 7-0Auburn 20% → 9% (−11)

congrats ole miss. you were probably gonna win anyways but the refs wanted to give an assist

Q3 1:51 · An Auburn fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 4:00Ole Miss fans lament Deuce Alexander dropping a perfect pass from T.RayI was not told Cam Coleman would be suiting up for Ole Miss todayr/CFB game thread
  2. Q2 8:17Auburn scores but blocks extra point, leaving fans stunned by the near missThis game is so unserious lolr/CFB game thread
  3. Q2 7:50Auburn's Brown fumbles after contact, Ole Miss recovers the ballOle Miss will rue the day that they hired Pete Golding’s drunk ass to lead their programr/CFB game threadWhy follow your blockers when you can run into five Ole Miss players and fumble amiriter/CFB game thread
  4. Q3 3:35Fans condemn a false fair catch penalty on Auburn's punt returnDL hit the QB in the face, no call. Kick returner puts his hands out, somehow a false fair catch?r/CFB game threadHitting the qb in the face isn't a penalty now? This is beyond ridiculousr/CFB game thread
  5. Q3 1:51Fans claim officials missed a hands to the face penalty on Ole MissIt’s just not even enjoyable watching football now because of how ridiculous these refs have gottenr/CFB game thread
Ole Miss’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Ole Miss -10.5), at 83% for Ole Miss (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Ole Miss or Auburn flair (654 and 741); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Ole Miss’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q2, 14:57Echoles 1-yd TD runOle Miss goes ahead 7-0Q2, 14:57 · Ole Miss 7, Auburn 0▲11%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 80% to 91%▲11%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 80% to 91%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q2, 7:59Brown 21-yd TD pass to Nimrod, blockedcuts it to 7-6Q2, 7:59 · Ole Miss 7, Auburn 6▼2%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 85% to 83%▼2%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 85% to 83%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q2, 7:38Chambliss intercepted by Fegans at the Ole Miss 35Q2, 7:38 · Ole Miss 7, Auburn 6▼8%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 84% to 76%▼8%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 84% to 76%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 2:26Mills-Knight 1-yd TD runOle Miss leads 14-6Q2, 2:26 · Ole Miss 14, Auburn 6▲6%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 85% to 91%▲6%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 85% to 91%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q3, 6:20Brown 7-yd TD runcuts it to 17-15Q3, 6:20 · Ole Miss 17, Auburn 15▼6%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 87% to 81%▼6%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 87% to 81%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q3, 3:25Chambliss 26-yd TD runOle Miss leads 24-15Q3, 3:25 · Ole Miss 24, Auburn 15▲9%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 85% to 94%▲9%Ole Miss’s chance to win, 85% to 94%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q4, 12:12Brown sacked for a 10-yd lossQ4, 12:12 · Ole Miss 31, Auburn 1531-15score after the play31-15score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  8. Q4, 10:23Chambliss 28-yd TD pass to Fields; leverage on Auburn (declined)Ole Miss leads 38-15Q4, 10:23 · Ole Miss 38, Auburn 1538-15score after the play38-15score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  9. Q4, 3:27Knight 17-yd TD runOle Miss leads 45-15Q4, 3:27 · Ole Miss 45, Auburn 1545-15score after the play45-15score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Ole Miss scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Auburn on 3 of its 11.

Ole Miss’s drives are teal, Auburn’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Ole Miss: Punt, from 75 yards out to 50PuntAuburn: Punt, from 94 yards out to 54PuntOle Miss: Touchdown, from 89 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Auburn: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownOle Miss: Interception, from 75 yards out to 70InterceptionAuburn: Fumble, from 31 yards out to 14FumbleOle Miss: Touchdown, from 86 yards out to 0TouchdownAuburn: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 11Field goalOle Miss: End of half, from 75 yards out to 77End of halfQ3Auburn: Punt, from 75 yards out to 76PuntOle Miss: Field goal, from 60 yards out to 3Field goalAuburn: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownOle Miss: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAuburn: Punt, from 99 yards out to 93PuntOle Miss: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Auburn: Punt, from 75 yards out to 83PuntOle Miss: Touchdown, from 42 yards out to 0TouchdownAuburn: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 44DownsOle Miss: Touchdown, from 56 yards out to 0TouchdownAuburn: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 41FumbleOle Miss: Turned over on downs, from 59 yards out to 50DownsAuburn: End of game, from 50 yards out to 6End of game

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans peaked in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was busy.

FirstSecondThirdFourthOle Miss fansAuburn fansusual

What it cost

Ole Miss’s chance to make the playoff rose from 41% to 46%.

Make the playoff

Auburn · lost1% → 1%
Ole Miss · won41% → ▲46%41%▲ 46%

Win the conference

Auburn · lost0% → 0%
Ole Miss · won8% → ▲9%8%▲ 9%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Ole Miss plays vs Georgia on Sat Nov 7 with a 46% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Ole Miss 45, Auburn 15

Ole Miss covered −10.5 by 19.5. The total, 60, went over 58.5.

AuburnOle MissTotal yardsAuburn 312Ole Miss 487312487Passing yardsAuburn 249Ole Miss 263249263Rushing yardsAuburn 63Ole Miss 22463224First downsAuburn 24Ole Miss 312431TurnoversAuburn 2Ole Miss 121Time of possessionAuburn 27:22Ole Miss 32:3827:2232:38
Team totalsAuburnOle Miss
Total yards312487
Passing29 of 43, 249 yds22 of 35, 263 yds
Rushing27 for 63 yds49 for 224 yds
First downs2431
Third down7 of 1413 of 16
Fourth down1 of 20 of 1
Turnovers21
Penalties8 for 67 yds8 for 95 yds
Time of possession27:2232:38

Auburn leaders

  • Passing Byrum Brown 25 of 38, 195 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Jeremiah Cobb 7 for 35 yds; Omar Mabson Ii 6 for 14 yds
  • Receiving Chas Nimrod 4 for 62 yds, 1 TD; DeShawn Spencer 4 for 62 yds

Ole Miss leaders

  • Passing Trinidad Chambliss 22 of 34, 263 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Shekai Mills-Knight 16 for 71 yds, 1 TD; Trinidad Chambliss 7 for 65 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Horatio Fields 6 for 73 yds, 1 TD; Deuce Alexander 5 for 59 yds

No rain through the game

73° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 61°, with about 7 in 10 games between 45° and 73°.

October game-day temperatures at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Ole Miss favoredAuburn favored100%Win chanceOle MissRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Ole Miss favoredAuburn favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:53 left11:48 a.m.
Auburn 0, Ole Miss 0 · Ole Miss 83% to win
no rain · 73°
Frazier 4-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Oxford airport, 1.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Auburn · 4-3

Rated 71st in our preseason ratings, 46th now, up 25 spots.

1-2 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Georgia as a 19.5-point underdog.

L 17-38 vs LSUTop 25 No. 6 of 668 teams

lost by 21 as a 7-point underdog

Auburn lost 17-38 vs LSU. Chance to win started at 37%, low under 1%, high 41%.

W 27-24 @ GeorgiaTop 25 No. 4 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 19.5-point underdog

Auburn won 27-24 at Georgia. Chance to win started at 7%, low 1%, high better than 99%.

L 14-24 @ TennesseeTop 25 No. 26 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 6-point underdog

Auburn lost 14-24 at Tennessee. Chance to win started at 25%, low under 1%, high 56%.

L 39-44 vs FloridaTop 25 No. 17 of 668 teams

lost by 5 as a 2.5-point underdog

Auburn lost 39-44 vs Florida. Chance to win started at 49%, low under 1%, high 54%.

W 17-16 vs Baylor No. 36 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 6.5-point favorite

Auburn won 17-16 vs Baylor. Chance to win started at 75%, low 65%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Ole Miss · 5-2

Rated 12th in our preseason ratings, 10th now.

2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 27-34 @ TexasTop 25 No. 8 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 3-point underdog

Ole Miss lost 27-34 at Texas. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 47%.

W 31-3 vs MissouriTop 25 No. 28 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 4-point favorite

Ole Miss won 31-3 vs Missouri. Chance to win started at 67%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

L 28-52 @ FloridaTop 25 No. 11 of 668 teams

lost by 24 as a 4-point underdog

Ole Miss lost 28-52 at Florida. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 27%.

W 32-24 vs LSUTop 25 No. 20 of 668 teams

won by 8 as a 3-point underdog

Ole Miss won 32-24 vs LSU. Chance to win started at 50%, low 38%, high better than 99%.

W 41-38 vs LouisvilleTop 25 No. 58 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite

Ole Miss won 41-38 vs Louisville. Chance to win started at 77%, low 52%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Ole Miss

Wk 3: W 32-24 vs LSU▲8LSUWk 4: L 28-52 at Florida▼24FloridaWk 6: W 52-17 at Vanderbilt▲35Vanderbi…Wk 7: W 31-3 vs Missouri▲28MissouriWk 8: L 27-34 at Texas▼7Texas
  • Wk 3Wvs LSU32-24
  • Wk 4Lat Florida28-52
  • Wk 6Wat Vanderbilt52-17
  • Wk 7Wvs Missouri31-3
  • Wk 8Lat Texas27-34

Auburn

Wk 3: L 39-44 vs Florida▼5FloridaWk 4: W 21-15 vs Vanderbilt▲6Vanderbi…Wk 5: L 14-24 at Tennessee▼10TennesseeWk 7: W 27-24 at Georgia▲3GeorgiaWk 8: L 17-38 vs LSU▼21LSU
  • Wk 3Lvs Florida39-44
  • Wk 4Wvs Vanderbilt21-15
  • Wk 5Lat Tennessee14-24
  • Wk 7Wat Georgia27-24
  • Wk 8Lvs LSU17-38

Power rating by week

Ole Miss is rated 6.7 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

136-2Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Ole MissAuburn

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Ole Miss’s success rate against Auburn, 66 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Ole Miss’s success rate against Auburn’s defense

    66 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ole Miss offense, 95th percentile · Auburn defense, 29th

  2. Auburn’s explosive plays against Ole Miss’s defense

    59 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Auburn offense, 85th percentile · Ole Miss defense, 26th

  3. Ole Miss’s rushing EPA against Auburn’s defense

    61 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ole Miss offense, 91st percentile · Auburn defense, 30th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

AuburnOle Miss
EPA/play, offense
Auburn · 39Ole Miss · 86
EPA/play, defense
Auburn · 45Ole Miss · 35
Success rate, offense
Auburn · 24Ole Miss · 95
Success rate, defense
Auburn · 29Ole Miss · 47
Explosive-play rate, offense
Auburn · 85Ole Miss · 29
Explosive-play rate, defense
Auburn · 75Ole Miss · 26
Rush EPA, offense
Auburn · 64Ole Miss · 91
Rush EPA, defense
Auburn · 30Ole Miss · 50
Pass EPA, offense
Auburn · 24Ole Miss · 78
Pass EPA, defense
Auburn · 50Ole Miss · 45

The series

Auburn leads the series 35-13

48 meetings since 1928 · Ole Miss has won the last 2

Ole Miss wonAuburn won1928: Ole Miss by 191932: Auburn by 71949: Ole Miss by 331951: Ole Miss by 251952: Ole Miss by 131953: Auburn by 131965: Ole Miss by 61970: Auburn by 71972: Auburn by 61973: Auburn by 71976: Auburn by 101977: Auburn by 61984: Auburn by 41985: Auburn by 411990: Auburn by 141991: Auburn by 101992: Ole Miss by 241993: Auburn by 41994: Auburn by 51995: Auburn by 331996: Auburn by 171997: Auburn by 101998: Auburn by 171999: Ole Miss by 72000: Auburn by 82001: Auburn by 62002: Auburn by 72003: Ole Miss by 42004: Auburn by 212005: Auburn by 242006: Auburn by 62007: Auburn by 142008: Ole Miss by 102009: Auburn by 132010: Auburn by 202011: Auburn by 182012: Ole Miss by 212013: Auburn by 82014: Auburn by 42015: Ole Miss by 82016: Auburn by 112017: Auburn by 212018: Auburn by 152019: Auburn by 62020: Auburn by 72021: Auburn by 112022: Ole Miss by 142023: Ole Miss by 719282023
  • 2023Ole Miss 28-21Ole Miss won 28-21 at Auburn. Chance to win started at 70%, low 43%, high 99%.
  • 2022Ole Miss 48-34Ole Miss won 48-34 vs Auburn. Chance to win started at 86%, low 76%, high 99%.
  • 2021Auburn 31-20Ole Miss lost 20-31 at Auburn. Chance to win started at 41%, low 1%, high 41%.
  • 2020Auburn 35-28Ole Miss lost 28-35 vs Auburn. Chance to win started at 36%, low under 1%, high 78%.
  • 2019Auburn 20-14Ole Miss lost 14-20 at Auburn. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 39%.

Each line is Ole Miss’s chance to win through that meeting. Ole Miss is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Ole Miss fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (39th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

50-50Model 80% · Line 80%Ole Miss fans · 39thAuburn fans · 3rdAuburnOle Miss

Ole Miss favored by 10.5 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

Ole Miss by 10.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The total rose 5 points.

opened 53.5now 58.5

Total: 53.5 → 58.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Ole Miss is worth +5.4 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 70th percentile.

75% at home, 46% on the road against FBS opponents (40-13 home, 18-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.5 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 263 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full SEC standings