CFB Zeitgeist Score
62
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 82nd percentile.
Sire Gaines
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
812 RUSH YDS · 8 RUSH TD · 161 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Boise State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Boise State
Returning around him
- 58% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 1 Boise State player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -8 net (11 in / 19 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Boise State · Last season: 9-5 (AP #25) · Talent rank #81 · 2026 recruiting class #62
RB · BOISE STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Sire Gaines
- 1
- #26
- 6-0 | 209 lb
- Perris, CA
Heisman Heat
#1885
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Boise State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3-star | 0.8731 | No. 821 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8731
#821 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Sire Gaines
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=3
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Sire Gaines
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 14g
812Rush yards
161Carries
8Rush TDs
Per game
58Rush yards
12Carries
1Rush TDs
Final
812Rush yards
161Carries
8Rush TDs
✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 812.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Sire Gaines's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Boise State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
161 93rd
YDS
812 91st
YPC
5.0 62nd
TD
8 93rd
Receiving
REC
11 65th
YDS
72 59th
YPR
6.5 45th
TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 14 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 7-34@ South Florida | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 | 14 | |
| Wk 2 | W 51-14vs Eastern Washington | 14 | 98 | 7.0 | 1 | 46 | |
| Wk 4 | W 49-37@ Air Force | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 5 | W 47-14vs App State | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 | 28 | |
| Wk 6 | L 7-28@ Notre Dame | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 7 | W 41-25vs New Mexico | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 2 | 12 | |
| Wk 8 | W 56-31vs UNLV | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Wk 9 | W 24-3@ Nevada | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 1 | 13 | |
| Wk 10 | L 7-30vs Fresno State | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 12 | L 7-17@ San Diego State | 13 | 78 | 6.0 | 0 | 20 | |
| Wk 13 | W 49-21vs Colorado State | 22 | 149 | 6.8 | 2 | 18 | Season-high 149 yds |
| Wk 14 | W 25-24@ Utah State | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 15 | W 38-21vs UNLV | 9 | 64 | 7.1 | 1 | 35 | |
| Bowl | L 10-38@ Washington | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | |
| Total | 161 | 812 | 5.3 | 8 | 46 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Boise State9-5HC: Spencer Danielson · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boise State | 161 | 812 | 5.0 | 8 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 161 | 812 | 5.0 | 8 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boise State | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 812 | #65/735 | 91st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 8 | #51/739 | 93rd pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.0 | #280/735 | 62nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 11 | #195/552 | 65th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 72 | #223/548 | 59th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.13 | #156/362 | 57th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 143 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 15.9% | #157/738 | 79th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 161 | #55/739 | 93rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 46 | #191/733 | 74th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 20 | #232/540 | 57th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 6.5 | #302/548 | 45th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #60/552 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 28.4% | #140/738 | 81st pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 20.1% | #123/738 | 83rd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 17.8% | #130/738 | 83rd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 15.8% | #212/738 | 71st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 12.5% | #127/738 | 83rd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 7.5% | #323/738 | 56th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 3.3% | #280/738 | 62nd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #205/256 | 20th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 14 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 72.6 | 5.7 | 1.0 |
| Road7g | 43.4 | 4.9 | 0.1 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 66.2 | 5.8 | 0.9 |
| Losses5g | 43.2 | 4.4 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 52.1 | 5.4 | 0.4 |
| Weeks 8+7g | 63.9 | 5.2 | 0.7 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
62Solid starter
Elite: carries (84th). Strength: rush tds (84th). Concern: fumbles lost (13th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.13Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Sire GainesBoise StateJeremiah CobbAuburn· 89% simKamari MoultonIowa· 86% simNate FrazierGeorgia· 86% sim
Carries
Rush TDs
Rush yards
Yards / carry
Long run
Receptions
Rec yards
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Caleb Komolafe’s 2025 season.
Caleb Komolafe
79%match
#2
Jalen Buckley
All-MAC
76%
#3
Khalan Laborn
All-Sun Belt
76%
#4
Makhi Hughes
All-AAC
74%
#5
Kye Robichaux
74%
Matches Caleb on
Rush TD rate
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Differs from Caleb on
Class year (lower)
Recruiting rating (higher)
Height (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Titus Swen's sophomore season at Wyoming (2022).
Titus Swen
71%match
#2
Makhi Hughes
All-AAC
71%
#3
Lunch Winfield
67%
#4
Angel H Flores
66%
#5
Jake Retzlaff
65%
Matches Titus on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Rush TD rate
Height
Differs from Titus on
Class year (lower)
Recruiting rating (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Spencer Danielson
Pass share
46.6%
472 pass / 540 run
Plays / game
72.3
14 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.4%
358 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Spencer Danielson
Boise State
Played his entire career under Spencer Danielson.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownPerris, CA
Height6'0"
Weight209 lb
Class1
PositionRB
Jersey26
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamBoise State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Boise State | RB1 | #1885 | #1687 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boise State | Mountain West | RB | 1 | No. 26 | 6-0 | 209 lb | Perris, CA |
| 2024 | Boise State | Mountain West | RB | 1 | No. 26 | 6-0 | 209 lb | Perris, CA |