Maddux Madsen does not aim for underneath completions. He aims for the end zone and the 20-yard marker, and Boise State's third straight Mountain West title says that philosophy works. The 2026 question is whether a rebuilt receiving corps can keep pace with a quarterback who throws the ball down the field by design.
5′10″ · 207 lb · American Fork, UT · American Fork HS
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
How he plays
Operates within the system without forcing anything.
Interception rate: 94th percentile.
The full scouting readThe numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Best game: 181 pass yds, 3 TD, 5 rush yds, at Oregon
The play that turned itSwung UCF from 43% to 79% to win.UCF at Boise State · 18-16
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Maddux Madsen does not aim for underneath completions. He aims for the end zone and the 20-yard marker, and Boise State's third straight Mountain West title says that philosophy works. The 2026 question is whether a rebuilt receiving corps can keep pace with a quarterback who throws the ball down the field by design.
Aura™ · Him Watch
-50aura tax
67th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=13
— the tape outruns the hype.Buzz vs Tape
His production sits in the 68th percentile among qualified QBs this season, well ahead of 18th-percentile attention — a gap of 50 points between tape and volume.
“I don’t hate the kid, but he ain’t good either Maddux Madsen for QB”
Madsen's 2025 stat line looks modest on the surface — 2,333 yards, 58.3 percent completions, 18 touchdowns, 9 interceptions — but the play-by-play context reframes it. His average depth of target sits at the 78th percentile nationally, and his explosive pass rate (completions of 15-plus yards) ranks 79th. He is not a timing-rhythm quarterback padding completion percentages on three-yard hitches. Every time he drops back he is asking his receivers to beat somebody.
That approach inflates his touchdown rate to the 71st percentile and his EPA per dropback to the 67th — real production, generated by taking shots. The cost is visible: a 31st-percentile completion percentage and a 14th-percentile interception rate. Those are not anomalies to explain away; they are the predictable tradeoff of a vertically-oriented offense. Madsen's sack rate (64th percentile) suggests he moves on quickly when the shot isn't there, which limits the damage on any given play.
The 2026 stakes are concrete. Boise State's top four pass-catchers from 2025 all moved on, leaving Madsen to build chemistry with an essentially new supporting cast. If the Broncos can develop a genuine go-to downfield target, the infrastructure is already in place for a Davey O'Brien watch-list conversation. If the receiver room sputters, the interception rate becomes the loudest number on the page.
His career
Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.
Madsen plays like a quarterback who has decided that short completions are someone else's job. His 78th-percentile average depth of target and 87th-percentile explosive pass rate are not byproducts of receiver separation — they are the plan. He takes the shot, finishes at a 87th-percentile touchdown rate when drives reach the red zone, and limits negative plays with a 64th-percentile sack rate. The completion percentage (31st percentile) and interception rate (20th percentile) are the honest price of that scheme. He is not a game-manager; he is a vertical-first signal-caller who needs talent around him to function at his ceiling.
Written by our staff.
The role got bigger.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-MOUNTAIN WEST
All-Mountain West mention (2025)
FRESHMAN HONORS
Freshman recognition (2023)
2 mention(s)
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2022–2026
2 coachesCoaching transition mid-career: Andy Avalos → Spencer Danielson. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Boise State | 54 | 88 | 61.4% | 610 | 6.9 | 6 | 0 | 142.1 | 45 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Boise State | 176 | 302 | 58.3% | 2,333 | 7.7 | 18 | 9 | 136.9 | 52 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Boise State | 247 | 396 | 62.4% | 3,018 | 7.6 | 23 | 6 | 142.5 | 79 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Boise State | 81 | 132 | 61.4% | 1,191 | 9.0 | 9 | 3 | 155.1 | 67 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Boise State | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | 43 | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 165.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 561 | 922 | 60.8% | 7,195 | 7.8 | 56 | 18 | 142.5 | 65 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Boise State | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 1 | -- |
| 2025 | Boise State | 57 | 81 | 1.4 | 4 | -- |
| 2024 | Boise State | 57 | 221 | 3.9 | 5 | -- |
| 2023 | Boise State | 33 | 120 | 3.6 | 2 | -- |
| 2022 | Boise State | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 161 | 457 | 2.8 | 12 | -- |
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 27-34@ Oregon | 15/29 | 181 | 3 | 0 | 6.2 | — | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | W 38-20vs Memphis | 17/28 | 221 | 1 | 0 | 7.9 | 55.0 | Season-high 221 yds |
| Wk 3 | W 38-24vs South Dakota | 22/31 | 208 | 2 | 0 | 6.7 | 77.2 | |
| Total | 54/88 | 610 | 6 | 0 | 6.9 | 66.1 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 3 · 2026
W 38–24
vs South Dakota
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +208 passing yards, +2 passing TD.
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Elite: interception rate (94th percentile). Strength: interceptions (93rd percentile). Concern: explosive rate (28th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
7.7560 of 126 QBsSack rate
4.3%59 of 126 QBsRarely sacked (59 of 126 QBs) and still 60 of 126 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 61.4% completion on 88 attempts · 60% of attempts thrown 0–9 air yds.
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 90 dropbacks45Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
48.5%72th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected points · -2.6% schedule adj.Yards per attempt weight 56%
5.7610th pct of FBS QBssacks excluded · -1.4 schedule adj.Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
3.6%81th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot see · -0.8% schedule adj.Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (2 of 92 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 214 | 1.5 | 7.3 | 0.0 |
| Road1g | 181 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 203 | 2.0 | 6.9 | 0.0 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Spencer Danielson
Pass share
40.7%
88 pass / 128 run
Plays / game
72.0
3 games
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Player standing · 2026
On the two-deep and pushing for snaps.
Recognition
2026 outlook
In the mix for All-Pac-12
Based on 2025: #6 of 14 Mountain West QBs — his program moves to the Pac-12 for 2026
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player. The base rate was measured on players who stayed in the same conference; this estimate is not adjusted for the move to the Pac-12.
Play style
Madsen plays like a quarterback who has decided that short completions are someone else's job. His 78th-percentile average depth of target and 87th-percentile explosive pass rate are not byproducts of receiver separation — they are the plan. He takes the shot, finishes at a 87th-percentile touchdown rate when drives reach the red zone, and limits negative plays with a 64th-percentile sack rate. The completion percentage (31st percentile) and interception rate (20th percentile) are the honest price of that scheme. He is not a game-manager; he is a vertical-first signal-caller who needs talent around him to function at his ceiling.
Our classifier reads him the same way: operates within the system without forcing anything.
Returning starter at quarterback for a 9-5 Boise State team that went -8 in the portal. The No. 1,718 recruit in the country is starting at quarterback in the Pac-12 as a senior.
Player DNA
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
His 2026 production profile sits closest to Mack Leftwich’s 2015 season.
Matches Mack on
Differs from Mack on
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Chris Reynolds’s path through Charlotte.
Matches Chris on
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Chandler Fields's graduate season at Louisiana (2023).
Differs from Chandler on
Player DNA
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #29 this season.
CAREER HONORS Maxwell Award Preseason Watch List (2026) Walter Camp Award Preseason Watch List (2026) Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award Preseason Watch List (2026) Allstate Wuerffel Trophy Preseason Watch List (2026) Allstate AFCA Good Hands Team Nominee (2026) Shiners Children’s East-West Bowl…