Oregon State 56-26 Colorado State (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Oregon State · Colorado State

Oregon State3-256

Colorado State2-326Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, Colo. · Crowd 41,000

Oregon State routed Colorado State 56-26.

We had Oregon State favored. It won.

Next: Oregon State beat San Diego State 66-14, Sat Oct 10

Next: Colorado State lost to Texas State 66-27, Thu Oct 15

How it swung

The turning point: Brown 17-yd TD run, cuts it to 14-7 (Q1, 0:24). Oregon State went from 87% to 36% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oregon State a 54% chance, and the closing betting line (Oregon State was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.

Last play we haveOregon State 56-26 Colorado StatePlay-by-play ends earlyMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 0:24Brown 17-yd TD run, cuts it to 14-7Oregon State 87% → 36% (−51)
2Q2 11:514th and 1Farrar 1-yd TD runOregon State 36% → 73% (+37)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 0:24Brown 17-yd TD run, cuts it to 14-7Colorado State 13% → 64% (+51)
2Q2 11:514th and 1Farrar 1-yd TD runColorado State 64% → 27% (−37)

What fans said, play by play

Q2 3:11A block was made that surprised people.WHATA BLOCKr/CFB game thread

Oregon State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Oregon State -7), at 62% for Oregon State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Colorado State or Oregon State flair (152 and 349); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

Oregon State scored on 8 of its 11 drives; Colorado State on 4 of its 10.

Oregon State’s drives are teal, Colorado State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Colorado State’s side

Colorado State’s best moment: Brown 17-yd TD run, cuts it to 14-7 (Q1 0:24). It lifted Colorado State’s win chance by 51 points.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Colorado State fans

summers“Can we get the student section to start chanting "Hey! Ho! Tyson Summers has got to go!"”

fire“Fire every person on our defensive staff, players included. This is so hard to watch every week”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: call, back, new, fun.

What it cost

Oregon State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 6% to 8%.

Make the playoff

Oregon State · won6% → ▲8%

Colorado State · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

Oregon State · won16% → ▲20%

Colorado State · lost3% → ▼1%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Oregon State 56, Colorado State 26

Oregon State covered −7 by 23. The total, 82, went over 60.5.

Team totals	Oregon State	Colorado State
Total yards	525	359
Passing	28 of 32, 330 yds	14 of 23, 172 yds
Rushing	27 for 195 yds	28 for 187 yds
First downs	29	19
Third down	5 of 6	5 of 9
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 2
Turnovers	1	1
Penalties	6 for 70 yds	2 for 20 yds
Time of possession	41:01	12:43

Oregon State leaders

Passing Braden Atkinson 30 of 33, 404 yds, 5 TD
Rushing AJ Newberry 15 for 90 yds; Cornell Hatcher Jr. 7 for 51 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Jesse Legree 5 for 156 yds, 3 TD; D.C. Temple 5 for 69 yds

Colorado State leaders

Passing Ksaan Farrar 17 of 26, 183 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Durell Robinson 21 for 117 yds, 1 TD; Jayden Brown 3 for 63 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Reginald Vick Jr 5 for 99 yds; Tommy Maher 4 for 29 yds

No rain through the game

82° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 61°, with about 7 in 10 games between 46° and 72°.

October game-day temperatures at Canvas Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 0:24 left4:44 p.m.

Oregon State 14, Colorado State 7 · Colorado State 64% to win

no rain · 80°

Brown 17-yd TD run, cuts it to 14-7

Measured at Fort Collins (awos) airport, 9.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Oregon State · 2-2

Rated 69th in our preseason ratings, 52nd now, up 17 spots.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 33-7 @ UTEP #197 of 668

won by 26 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 52-17 vs Montana #115 of 668

won by 35 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 24-35 vs Texas TechTop 25 #8 of 668

lost by 11 as a 25.5-point underdog

L 20-33 @ HoustonTop 25 #22 of 668

lost by 13 as a 21-point underdog

Last 4 games

Colorado State · 2-2

Rated 79th in our preseason ratings, 72nd now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 45-59 @ UTSA #17 of 668

lost by 14 as a 14.5-point underdog

L 23-41 vs BYUTop 25 #10 of 668

lost by 18 as a 17.5-point underdog

W 58-24 vs Southern Utah #150 of 668

won by 34 as a 19.5-point favorite

W 35-13 vs Wyoming #112 of 668

won by 22 as a 2.5-point favorite

Week by week

Colorado State

Wk 1Wvs Wyoming35-13
Wk 2Wvs Southern Utah58-24
Wk 3Lvs BYU23-41
Wk 4Lat UTSA45-59

Oregon State

Wk 1Lat Houston20-33
Wk 2Lvs Texas Tech24-35
Wk 3Wvs Montana52-17
Wk 4Wat UTEP33-7

Power rating by week

Oregon State is rated 2.3 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oregon State’s EPA/play against Colorado State, 93 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Oregon State’s EPA/play against Colorado State’s defense
Oregon State offense, 95th percentile · Colorado State defense, 2nd
Oregon State’s passing EPA against Colorado State’s defense
Oregon State offense, 94th percentile · Colorado State defense, 3rd
Oregon State’s explosive plays against Colorado State’s defense
Oregon State offense, 87th percentile · Colorado State defense, 61st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Oregon StateColorado State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

The series is tied 2-2

4 meetings since 1962 · Oregon State won the last meeting

2024Oregon State 39-31
2017Colorado State 58-27
1975Colorado State 17-8
1962Oregon State 25-14

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Oregon State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (74th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Oregon State favored by 7 · Total 60.5

The market

The spread moved 3.5 points toward Oregon State.

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 78° at kickoff.

Oregon State at Colorado State · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins

78°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
91weather score, Comfortable
2ndbest of the day's 4 kickoff times

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 4 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's four kickoff times. At Canvas Stadium that day, a 5:30 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 91 at 4 pm.

10 am: 85, Mixed
2 pm: 76, Mixed
4 pm: 91, Comfortable (this game)
5:30 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Colorado State is worth +3.8 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 44th percentile.

40% at home, 21% on the road against FBS opponents (17-25 home, 9-34 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.3 at home vs. away over 91 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

5,014 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 964 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Oregon State 39, Colorado State 31Oct 5, 2024

How it swung

Every drive

From Colorado State’s side

Two crowds, one game

What it cost

Box score

Oregon State leaders

Colorado State leaders

No rain through the game

Jump to

Before kickoff

Recent games

Week by week

Colorado State

Oregon State

Power rating by week

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oregon State’s EPA/play against Colorado State, 93 points

Season profile

The series

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

The market

Weather at kickoff

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Oregon State routs Colorado State 56-26

How it swung

Every drive

From Colorado State’s side

Two crowds, one game

What it cost

Box score

Oregon State leaders

Colorado State leaders

No rain through the game

Jump to

Before kickoff

Recent games

Week by week

Colorado State

Oregon State

Power rating by week

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oregon State’s EPA/play against Colorado State, 93 points

Season profile

The series

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

The market

Weather at kickoff

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next