Northern Colorado beats Cal Poly 28-18
Team pages: Cal Poly · Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado beat Cal Poly 28-18. Share this game
We had Cal Poly favored. Northern Colorado won.
Next: Cal Poly vs Utah Tech, Sat Oct 24 · 5:00 PM ET
Next: Northern Colorado at UC Davis, Sat Oct 24 · 7:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Olsen 15-yd TD run, Northern Colorado leads 28-18 (Q4, 8:38). Northern Colorado went from 72% to 94% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Northern Colorado a 43% chance, and the closing betting line (Northern Colorado was a 3-point underdog) put it at 40%.
A tight one: Northern Colorado bottomed out at 20% and won.
Up to 80% in the first quarter, then Cal Poly lost it.
Northern Colorado 28-18 Cal Poly
Northern Colorado wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Cal Poly 18-28 Northern ColoradoCal Poly lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 6:12McCoy 10-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-18Northern Colorado 81% → 64% (−17)
- 2Q4 8:38Olsen 15-yd TD run, Northern Colorado leads 28-18Northern Colorado 72% → 94% (+22)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 6:12McCoy 10-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-18Cal Poly 19% → 36% (+17)
- 2Q4 8:38Olsen 15-yd TD run, Northern Colorado leads 28-18Cal Poly 28% → 6% (−22)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Cal Poly -3), at 49% for Northern Colorado (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Northern Colorado scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Cal Poly on 3 of its 9.
Northern Colorado’s drives are teal, Cal Poly’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Cal Poly’s side
Cal Poly’s best moment: McCoy 10-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-18 (Q3 6:12). It lifted Cal Poly’s win chance by 17 points.
Box score
Northern Colorado 28, Cal Poly 18
Northern Colorado covered +3 by 13. The total, 46, stayed under 52.5.
Cal Poly leaders
- Passing Anthony Grigsby Jr. 27 of 34, 300 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Jaden Green 16 for 63 yds, 1 TD; Misa Paiau 12 for 35 yds
- Receiving Tayvion McCoy 9 for 128 yds; Don-Ray Hall Jr. 3 for 52 yds
Northern Colorado leaders
- Passing Keegan Patterson 7 of 12, 118 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Justin Guin 12 for 128 yds, 1 TD; Keegan Patterson 17 for 112 yds
- Receiving Trey Olsen 4 for 121 yds, 1 TD; Gavin Lockett 1 for 1 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Cal Poly · 4-3
Rated 199th in our preseason ratings, 206th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 1-point win over Idaho State as a 14.5-point underdog.
W 24-17 vs Central Washington #268 of 668
Last three games
Northern Colorado · 2-5
Rated 255th in our preseason ratings, 241st now, up 14 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 37-13 vs Utah Tech #253 of 668
won by 24 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 23-17 vs Northeastern State #270 of 668
L 23-38 vs South Dakota #125 of 668
lost by 15 as a 20.5-point underdog
L 29-30 vs Weber State #241 of 668
lost by 1 as a 3-point favorite
Week by week
Northern Colorado
- Wk 2Lat Wyoming13-21
- Wk 3Wvs Northeastern State23-17
- Wk 4Wvs Utah Tech37-13
- Wk 5Lat Montana14-36
- Wk 6Lat Eastern Washington22-31
Cal Poly
- Wk 2Lat San José State20-30
- Wk 3Lvs San Diego35-38
- Wk 4Wat Eastern Washington31-27
- Wk 5Lvs Weber State34-42
- Wk 6Wat Idaho State25-24
Power rating by week
Cal Poly is rated 1.9 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Cal Poly leads the series 8-1
9 meetings since 2004 · Cal Poly has won the last 3
- 2024Cal Poly 28-7
- 2023Cal Poly 24-17
- 2019Cal Poly 28-21
- 2017Northern Colorado 42-0
- 2016Cal Poly 55-48
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Northern Colorado’s chances here.
Cal Poly favored by 3 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
Cal Poly by 3, on the usual path until 8:38 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The total fell 1 point.
Total: 53.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Northern Colorado is worth +10.8 points (±5.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-3 home, 0-11 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.0 at home vs. away over 52 games — inside the ±8.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 4,775 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 938 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Northern Colorado11th1-3
- Cal Poly5th3-1