Northern Iowa upsets Illinois State 28-21

Team pages: Illinois State · Northern Iowa

Illinois State4-121
Northern Iowa2-228Final
Sat, Sep 26 · UNI-Dome, Cedar Falls, Iowa · Crowd 9,016ESPN+

Northern Iowa beat Illinois State 28-21 as a 19.5-point underdog.

We had Illinois State favored. Northern Iowa won.

Next: Illinois State lost to South Dakota State 31-14, Sat Oct 3

Next: Northern Iowa beat North Dakota 24-17, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Terrell 43-yd TD run, Northern Iowa leads 28-14 (Q3, 5:48). Northern Iowa went from 48% to 75% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Northern Iowa a 25% chance, and the closing betting line (Northern Iowa was a 19.5-point underdog) put it at 6%.

FinalNorthern Iowa 28-21 Illinois StateNorthern Iowa wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q460% at halfNorthern IowaLowest 13%Won28-2112+20+27Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q460% at halfLowest 13%Won28-2112Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q440% at halfNorthern IowaLowest 0%High 87%Lost21-2812−20−27Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q440% at halfLowest 0%High 87%Lost21-2812Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 4:33Dailey 7-yd TD pass to Black, Northern Iowa leads 21-7Northern Iowa 40% → 60% (+20)
  2. 2Q3 5:48Terrell 43-yd TD run, Northern Iowa leads 28-14Northern Iowa 48% → 75% (+27)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 4:33Dailey 7-yd TD pass to Black, Northern Iowa leads 21-7Illinois State 60% → 40% (−20)
  2. 2Q3 5:48Terrell 43-yd TD run, Northern Iowa leads 28-14Illinois State 52% → 25% (−27)
Northern Iowa’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Illinois State -19.5), at 13% for Northern Iowa (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Northern Iowa scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Illinois State on 3 of its 9.

Northern Iowa’s drives are teal, Illinois State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Northern Iowa: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Illinois State: Punt, from 58 yards out to 45PuntNorthern Iowa: Punt, from 94 yards out to 90PuntIllinois State: Turned over on downs, from 46 yards out to 19DownsNorthern Iowa: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois State: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 23FumbleNorthern Iowa: End of half, from 77 yards out to 75End of halfQ3Illinois State: Touchdown, from 92 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntNorthern Iowa: Turned over on downs, from 77 yards out to 3DownsIllinois State: Punt, from 97 yards out to 90PuntQ4Northern Iowa: Missed field goal, from 65 yards out to 35Missed FGIllinois State: Turned over on downs, from 65 yards out to 13DownsNorthern Iowa: Punt, from 87 yards out to 88PuntIllinois State: Touchdown, from 45 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: End of game, from 47 yards out to 36End of game

From Illinois State’s side

Illinois State’s best moment: Dawson 9-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-14 (Q3 7:30). It lifted Illinois State’s win chance by 17 points.

The winner fell to 10%.

Box score

Northern Iowa 28, Illinois State 21

Northern Iowa covered +19.5 by 26.5. The total, 49, stayed under 58.5.

Illinois State leaders

  • Passing Gage Roy 24 of 39, 193 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Tyler Lofton 14 for 72 yds; Chase Kwiatkowski 4 for 23 yds
  • Receiving Dylan Lord 12 for 88 yds, 1 TD; Alex Herrera 3 for 43 yds, 1 TD

Northern Iowa leaders

  • Passing Jaxon Dailey 13 of 17, 217 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Xavier Terrell 8 for 80 yds, 1 TD; Jaxon Dailey 10 for 44 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Taj Hughes 3 for 80 yds; Jaiden Ellis-Lahey 1 for 50 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Illinois State · 4-0

Rated 126th in our preseason ratings, 103rd now, up 23 spots.

4 straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 49-13 vs Eastern Illinois #241 of 668

won by 36 as a 29.5-point favorite

Illinois State won 49-13 vs Eastern Illinois. Chance to win started at 97%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 28-24 @ Northern Illinois #103 of 668

won by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite

Illinois State won 28-24 at Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 48%, low 23%, high 95%.

W 41-10 @ Western Illinois #201 of 668

won by 31 as a 20.5-point favorite

Illinois State won 41-10 at Western Illinois. Chance to win started at 88%, low 87%, high better than 99%.

W 76-0 vs St. Francis (IL)

Last three games

Northern Iowa · 1-2

Rated 176th in our preseason ratings, 160th now, up 16 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 0-55 @ IowaTop 25 #19 of 668

lost by 55 as a 37.5-point underdog

Northern Iowa lost 0-55 at Iowa. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

W 56-14 vs Drake #226 of 668

won by 42 as an 11.5-point favorite

Northern Iowa won 56-14 vs Drake. Chance to win started at 82%, low 82%, high better than 99%.

L 24-34 @ Eastern Washington #186 of 668

lost by 10 as a 7-point underdog

Northern Iowa lost 24-34 at Eastern Washington. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 58%.

Week by week

Northern Iowa

Wk 1: L 24-34 at Eastern Washington▼10E. WashingtonWk 2: W 56-14 vs Drake▲42DrakeWk 3: L 0-55 at Iowa▼55Iowa
  • Wk 1Lat Eastern Washington24-34
  • Wk 2Wvs Drake56-14
  • Wk 3Lat Iowa0-55

Illinois State

Wk 1: W 76-0 vs St. Francis (IL)▲76St. Francis…Wk 1: W 41-10 at Western Illinois▲31W. IllinoisWk 2: W 28-24 at Northern Illinois▲4N. IllinoisWk 3: W 49-13 vs Eastern Illinois▲36E. Illinois
  • Wk 1Wvs St. Francis (IL)76-0
  • Wk 1Wat Western Illinois41-10
  • Wk 2Wat Northern Illinois28-24
  • Wk 3Wvs Eastern Illinois49-13

Power rating by week

Illinois State is rated 3.9 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-2-5-9Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Northern IowaIllinois State

The series

Northern Iowa leads the series 12-10

22 meetings since 1985 · Illinois State has won the last 2

Northern Iowa wonIllinois State won1985: Northern Iowa by 122003: Northern Iowa by 92004: Northern Iowa by 272005: Illinois State by 352006: Northern Iowa by 112007: Northern Iowa by 102008: Northern Iowa by 142009: Illinois State by 22010: Northern Iowa by 282011: Northern Iowa by 32012: Illinois State by 122013: Illinois State by 102014: Northern Iowa by 142014: Illinois State by 202015: Illinois State by 82018: Northern Iowa by 102019: Northern Iowa by 172021: Illinois State by 72022: Illinois State by 22023: Northern Iowa by 32024: Illinois State by 222025: Illinois State by 1519852025
  • 2025Illinois State 31-16
  • 2024Illinois State 31-9
  • 2023Northern Iowa 24-21
  • 2022Illinois State 23-21
  • 2021Illinois State 17-10

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Northern Iowa’s chances here.

50-50Model · 25%Line · 6%Illinois StateNorthern Iowa

Illinois State favored by 19.5 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

Illinois State by 19.5, on the usual path until Q1 15:00

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Northern Iowa is worth +8.2 points (±10.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.

33% at home, 11% on the road against FBS opponents (2-4 home, 2-16 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.8 at home vs. away over 48 games — inside the ±8.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 227 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.