Youngstown State beats Northern Iowa 35-22

Team pages: Northern Iowa · Youngstown State

Northern Iowa3-322
Youngstown State6-235Final
Sat, Oct 17 · Stambaugh Stadium, Youngstown, Ohio · Crowd 10,284ESPN+

Youngstown State beat Northern Iowa 35-22.

We had Youngstown State favored. It won.

Next: Northern Iowa at Southern Illinois, Sat Oct 24 · 2:00 PM ET

Next: Youngstown State vs North Dakota, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Youngstown State an 86% chance, and the closing betting line (Youngstown State was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.

Favored the whole way: Youngstown State never fell below 94%.

Northern Iowa never had better than a 5% chance.

TargetingQ3 5:12
FinalYoungstown State 35-22 Northern IowaYoungstown State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won35-22ScoresTargeting
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won35-22ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost22-35ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost22-35ScoresTargeting

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Youngstown State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Youngstown State -20.5), at 97% for Youngstown State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Youngstown State scored on 5 of its 9 drives; Northern Iowa on 4 of its 8.

Youngstown State’s drives are teal, Northern Iowa’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Youngstown State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: Missed field goal, from 70 yards out to 5Missed FGYoungstown State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: Punt, from 75 yards out to 36PuntYoungstown State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Northern Iowa: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80PuntYoungstown State: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Iowa: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownYoungstown State: End of half, from 90 yards out to 40End of halfQ3Northern Iowa: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownYoungstown State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntNorthern Iowa: Field goal, from 37 yards out to 28Field goalYoungstown State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Northern Iowa: Turned over on downs, from 86 yards out to 30DownsYoungstown State: Punt, from 70 yards out to 46PuntNorthern Iowa: Touchdown, from 87 yards out to 0TouchdownYoungstown State: End of game, from 49 yards out to 11End of game

Box score

Youngstown State 35, Northern Iowa 22

Northern Iowa covered +20.5 by 7.5. The total, 57, stayed under 60.5.

Northern Iowa leaders

  • Passing Jaxon Dailey 28 of 49, 318 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Ben Gordon 4 for 45 yds; Christian Collins 4 for 14 yds
  • Receiving Kai Black 3 for 74 yds, 1 TD; Ben Gordon 6 for 70 yds

Youngstown State leaders

  • Passing Beau Brungard 23 of 27, 240 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Beau Brungard 17 for 80 yds, 1 TD; Antuan Gardner 4 for 37 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Lynn Wyche-El 8 for 106 yds, 1 TD; Jaden Gilbert 6 for 55 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Northern Iowa · 3-2

Rated 176th in our preseason ratings, 162nd now, up 14 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over North Dakota as a 13.5-point underdog.

W 24-17 vs North Dakota #115 of 668

won by 7 as a 13.5-point underdog

Northern Iowa won 24-17 vs North Dakota. Chance to win started at 26%, low 12%, high better than 99%.

W 28-21 vs Illinois State #111 of 668

won by 7 as a 19.5-point underdog

Northern Iowa won 28-21 vs Illinois State. Chance to win started at 13%, low 13%, high better than 99%.

L 0-55 @ IowaTop 25 #19 of 668

lost by 55 as a 37.5-point underdog

Northern Iowa lost 0-55 at Iowa. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

W 56-14 vs Drake #226 of 668

won by 42 as an 11.5-point favorite

Northern Iowa won 56-14 vs Drake. Chance to win started at 82%, low 82%, high better than 99%.

L 24-34 @ Eastern Washington #186 of 668

lost by 10 as a 7-point underdog

Northern Iowa lost 24-34 at Eastern Washington. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 58%.

Last three games

Youngstown State · 5-2

Rated 147th in our preseason ratings, 100th now, up 47 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 57-24 @ Indiana State #221 of 668

won by 33 as a 19.5-point favorite

Youngstown State won 57-24 at Indiana State. Chance to win started at 82%, low 75%, high better than 99%.

W 28-16 @ Southern Illinois #162 of 668

won by 12 as a 4-point favorite

Youngstown State won 28-16 at Southern Illinois. Chance to win started at 50%, low 33%, high better than 99%.

W 47-28 vs South Dakota #118 of 668

won by 19 as a 1.5-point favorite

Youngstown State won 47-28 vs South Dakota. Chance to win started at 63%, low 56%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Youngstown State

Wk 2: W 70-13 vs Duquesne▲57DuquesneWk 3: L 20-27 at South Dakota State▼7S. Dakot…Wk 4: W 47-28 vs South Dakota▲19S. DakotaWk 5: W 28-16 at Southern Illinois▲12S. Illin…Wk 6: W 57-24 at Indiana State▲33Indiana…
  • Wk 2Wvs Duquesne70-13
  • Wk 3Lat South Dakota State20-27
  • Wk 4Wvs South Dakota47-28
  • Wk 5Wat Southern Illinois28-16
  • Wk 6Wat Indiana State57-24

Northern Iowa

Wk 1: L 24-34 at Eastern Washington▼10E. Washi…Wk 2: W 56-14 vs Drake▲42DrakeWk 3: L 0-55 at Iowa▼55IowaWk 4: W 28-21 vs Illinois State▲7Illinois…Wk 6: W 24-17 vs North Dakota▲7N. Dakota
  • Wk 1Lat Eastern Washington24-34
  • Wk 2Wvs Drake56-14
  • Wk 3Lat Iowa0-55
  • Wk 4Wvs Illinois State28-21
  • Wk 6Wvs North Dakota24-17

Power rating by week

Youngstown State is rated 4.7 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-0-5-9Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Youngstown StateNorthern Iowa

The series

Northern Iowa leads the series 14-5

19 meetings since 2003 · Youngstown State has won the last 2

Youngstown State wonNorthern Iowa won2003: Northern Iowa by 382004: Northern Iowa by 22005: Northern Iowa by 142006: Northern Iowa by 82007: Northern Iowa by 12008: Northern Iowa by 12009: Northern Iowa by 212010: Northern Iowa by 42011: Northern Iowa by 42012: Youngstown State by 72013: Northern Iowa by 22016: Youngstown State by 42017: Northern Iowa by 52018: Youngstown State by 212019: Northern Iowa by 72021: Northern Iowa by 272023: Northern Iowa by 32024: Youngstown State by 12025: Youngstown State by 320032025
  • 2025Youngstown State 35-32
  • 2024Youngstown State 39-38
  • 2023Northern Iowa 44-41
  • 2021Northern Iowa 34-7
  • 2019Northern Iowa 21-14

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Youngstown State’s chances here.

50-50Model · 86%Line · 95%Northern IowaYoungstown State

Youngstown State favored by 20.5 · Total 60.5

How games like this usually go

Youngstown State by 20.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Youngstown State.

opened −18.5now −20.5

The total rose 1 point.

opened 59.5now 60.5

Spread: −18.5 → −20.5 · Total: 59.5 → 60.5

The books’ cut: 5.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Youngstown State is worth +5.3 points (±12.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 72nd percentile.

50% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (2-2 home, 0-12 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.0 at home vs. away over 56 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 616 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.