Youngstown State beats Southern Illinois 28-16
Team pages: Youngstown State · Southern Illinois
Youngstown State beat Southern Illinois 28-16. Share this game
Next: Youngstown State beat Indiana State 57-24, Sat Oct 10
Next: Southern Illinois lost to South Dakota 31-10, Sat Oct 10
How it swung
The turning point: Brungard 1-yd TD run, Youngstown State goes ahead 14-10 (Q3, 4:04). Youngstown State went from 49% to 67% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Youngstown State a 54% chance, and the closing betting line (Youngstown State was a 4-point favorite) put it at 63%.
Down to 33% in the third quarter, Youngstown State came back to win.
Up to 67% in the third quarter, then Southern Illinois lost it.
Youngstown State 28-16 Southern Illinois
Youngstown State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Southern Illinois 16-28 Youngstown StateSouthern Illinois lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 7:57Williams 1-yd TD run, Southern Illinois goes ahead 10-7Youngstown State 60% → 43% (−17)
- 2Q3 4:04Brungard 1-yd TD run, Youngstown State goes ahead 14-10Youngstown State 49% → 67% (+18)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 7:57Williams 1-yd TD run, Southern Illinois goes ahead 10-7Southern Illinois 40% → 57% (+17)
- 2Q3 4:04Brungard 1-yd TD run, Youngstown State goes ahead 14-10Southern Illinois 51% → 33% (−18)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Youngstown State -4), at 50% for Youngstown State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Youngstown State scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Southern Illinois on 3 of its 10.
Youngstown State’s drives are teal, Southern Illinois’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Southern Illinois’s side
Southern Illinois’s best moment: Williams 1-yd TD run, Southern Illinois goes ahead 10-7 (Q2 7:57). It lifted Southern Illinois’s win chance by 17 points.
Too close to call on 67% of plays.
Box score
Youngstown State 28, Southern Illinois 16
Youngstown State covered −4 by 8. The total, 44, stayed under 64.5.
Youngstown State leaders
- Passing Beau Brungard 20 of 29, 219 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Beau Brungard 16 for 69 yds, 1 TD; Antuan Gardner 3 for 44 yds
- Receiving Austin Bray 5 for 78 yds, 1 TD; Lynn Wyche-El 5 for 53 yds
Southern Illinois leaders
- Passing DJ Williams 19 of 35, 288 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Chandler Chapman 11 for 49 yds; Edward Robinson 4 for 23 yds
- Receiving Kyle Thomas 8 for 155 yds; Markell Quick 4 for 52 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Youngstown State · 3-2
Rated 147th in our preseason ratings, 129th now, up 18 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Southern Illinois · 3-2
Rated 141st in our preseason ratings, 156th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 46-6 @ Murray State #261 of 668
won by 40 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 34-20 vs Southeast Missouri State #218 of 668
won by 14 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 22-18 @ Samford #236 of 668
won by 4 as a 20.5-point favorite
L 31-34 @ West Florida #262 of 668
lost by 3 as a 19.5-point favorite
Week by week
Southern Illinois
- Wk 1Lat West Florida31-34
- Wk 1Wat Samford22-18
- Wk 2Wvs Southeast Missouri State34-20
- Wk 3Lat Illinois10-48
- Wk 4Wat Murray State46-6
Youngstown State
- Wk 1Wvs Mercyhurst43-10
- Wk 1Lat Kentucky13-45
- Wk 2Wvs Duquesne70-13
- Wk 3Lat South Dakota State20-27
- Wk 4Wvs South Dakota47-28
Power rating by week
Youngstown State is rated 2.0 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Youngstown State leads the series 12-10
22 meetings since 2003 · Youngstown State won the last meeting
- 2025Youngstown State 48-38
- 2024Southern Illinois 37-33
- 2023Youngstown State 31-3
- 2022Youngstown State 28-21
- 2021Youngstown State 35-18
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Southern Illinois’s chances here.
Youngstown State favored by 4 · Total 64.5
How games like this usually go
Youngstown State by 4, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Youngstown State.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: +3.5 → +4 · Total: 62.5 → 64.5
The books’ cut: 5.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Southern Illinois is worth +6.0 points (±8.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.
33% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (2-4 home, 5-11 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.0 at home vs. away over 53 games — inside the ±9.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 514 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Southern Illinois4th1-0
- Youngstown State5th1-1