North Texas 45-44 Tulsa (Oct 1, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: North Texas · Tulsa

North Texas3-245

Tulsa3-244Final

Thu, Oct 1 · Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, Okla. · Crowd 14,938

North Texas beat Tulsa 45-44 in overtime.

We had Tulsa favored. North Texas won.

Next: North Texas beat Charlotte 50-10, Sat Oct 10

Next: Tulsa lost to Navy 34-26, Sat Oct 10

Top comment in the game thread

WE HAD 30 SECONDS AND A TIMEOUT TO GET INTO FG RANGE. WTF. WHY ARE YOU NOT EVEN TRYING TO

Q4 0:31 · r/CFB game thread · Thu, Oct 1

How it swung

The turning point: Alston 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 45-44 (OT). North Texas went from 63% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Texas a 48% chance, and the closing betting line (North Texas was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

North Texas came back from 11 down, at one point just a 15% chance in the second quarter.

Tulsa led by 11, was as high as 85% in the second quarter, and still lost.

21 unanswered

North Texas · Q3 8:39

FinalNorth Texas 45-44 TulsaNorth Texas wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The three plays that swung it

1OTWhite 2-yd runNorth Texas 47% → 71% (+24)
2OTAlston run for a 2-yd lossNorth Texas 84% → 63% (−21)
3OTAlston 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 45-44North Texas 63% → 100% (+37)

The three plays that swung it

1OTWhite 2-yd runTulsa 53% → 29% (−24)
2OTAlston run for a 2-yd lossTulsa 16% → 37% (+21)
3OTAlston 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 45-44Tulsa 37% → 0% (−37)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 7:22Tulsa attempted a risky fake play that did not work.good play by Tulsa that’s just too risky even if it almost worked thoughr/CFB game thread
Q4 13:21North Texas fans rip Neal Brown for delay of game and timeout before puntAnd now another wasted timeout in a close game, Neal come onr/CFB game threadShould’ve taken another delay to give more room to pin them deepr/CFB game thread
Q4 8:17The receiver did a backflip after catching a touchdown.Love a good backflip celebrationr/CFB game thread
Q4 7:18Jackson connects with Reese for a 41-yard gain, setting up the quick touchdownI like the TD. I do not like the 6:45 left on clock.r/CFB game thread
Q4 2:38Tulsa fans celebrate Drew's interception as North Texas fans rage over poor tacklingthe other JD Drew may have won a world series but did he ever beat Oklahoma State two years in a row??r/CFB game threadTackled dude to a near 1st downr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:31North Texas fans rip Neal Brown for running out the clock instead of trying to winQuoted at the top of the page.S A B A N would have never let the clock run out.r/CFB game thread

North Texas’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (North Texas -3), at 49% for North Texas (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Tulsa or North Texas flair (124 and 259); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show North Texas’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

North Texas scored on 7 of its 16 drives; Tulsa on 7 of its 15.

North Texas’s drives are teal, Tulsa’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Tulsa’s side

Tulsa’s best moment: Alston run for a 2-yd loss (OT). It lifted Tulsa’s win chance by 21 points.

How Tulsa fans took it: “Please tell me they're out of commercials” r/CFB game thread

“89 point sicko classic! WOOOOOOOOOOOOO”

A North Texas fan

When fans got loud

Roaring

The jump was roaring; the crowd was busy.

The winner fell to 13%.

What it cost

Tulsa’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

North Texas · won1% → 1%

Tulsa · lost1% → ▼0%

Win the conference

North Texas · won8% → ▲12%

Tulsa · lost8% → ▼4%

Before the game (September 30, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

North Texas 45, Tulsa 44

Tulsa covered +3 by 2. The total, 89, went over 56.5.

Team totals	North Texas	Tulsa
Total yards	559	352
Passing	24 of 39, 332 yds	25 of 43, 211 yds
Rushing	45 for 227 yds	37 for 141 yds
First downs	27	22
Third down	8 of 19	3 of 17
Fourth down	3 of 4	5 of 5
Turnovers	3	0
Penalties	9 for 63 yds	3 for 35 yds
Time of possession	34:42	25:18

North Texas leaders

Passing Tayven Jackson 24 of 39, 332 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Jahiem White 32 for 219 yds, 1 TD; TJ Chukwurah 1 for 5 yds
Receiving Max Reese 5 for 101 yds, 1 TD; Justin Stevenson 5 for 50 yds, 2 TD

Tulsa leaders

Passing Baylor Hayes 25 of 43, 211 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Damari Alston 23 for 79 yds, 1 TD; Trequan Jones 6 for 25 yds
Receiving Oran Singleton Jr. 11 for 104 yds; Chris Gacayan II 3 for 32 yds

No rain through the game

73° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Chapman Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Overtime12:05 a.m.

North Texas 45, Tulsa 44 · Tulsa 0% to win

71°

Alston 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 45-44

Measured at Tulsa International Airport(aw) airport, 4.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

North Texas · 2-2

Rated 135th in our preseason ratings, 98th now, up 37 spots.

2-2 in its last 4, including a 38-point win over UNLV as a 3-point underdog.

W 63-14 vs Houston Christian #234 of 668

won by 49 as a 38.5-point favorite

L 35-49 @ Texas State #38 of 668

lost by 14 as a 3-point underdog

W 44-6 vs UNLV #98 of 668

won by 38 as a 3-point underdog

L 16-52 @ IndianaTop 25 #8 of 668

lost by 36 as a 39.5-point underdog

Last 4 games

Tulsa · 3-1

Rated 107th in our preseason ratings, 109th now.

3-1 in its last 4, including a 14-point win over Oklahoma State as a 13.5-point underdog.

L 6-34 @ Arkansas #128 of 668

lost by 28 as a 7-point underdog

W 42-0 vs East Texas A&M #221 of 668

won by 42 as a 41.5-point favorite

W 23-17 @ Sam Houston #156 of 668

won by 6 as a 12.5-point favorite

W 24-10 vs Oklahoma StateTop 25 #260 of 668

won by 14 as a 13.5-point underdog

Week by week

Tulsa

Wk 1Wvs Oklahoma State24-10
Wk 2Wat Sam Houston23-17
Wk 3Wvs East Texas A&M42-0
Wk 4Lat Arkansas6-34

North Texas

Wk 1Lat Indiana16-52
Wk 2Wvs UNLV44-6
Wk 3Lat Texas State35-49
Wk 4Wvs Houston Christian63-14

Power rating by week

North Texas is rated 1.2 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: North Texas’s passing EPA against Tulsa, 53 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

North Texas’s passing EPA against Tulsa’s defense
North Texas offense, 95th percentile · Tulsa defense, 42nd
North Texas’s EPA/play against Tulsa’s defense
North Texas offense, 92nd percentile · Tulsa defense, 54th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

North TexasTulsa

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Tulsa leads the series 17-9

26 meetings since 1957 · North Texas has won the last 3

2024North Texas 52-20
2023North Texas 35-28
2013North Texas 42-10
2011Tulsa 41-24
2008Tulsa 56-26

Each line is Tulsa’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Tulsa fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (86th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

North Texas favored by 3 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

North Texas by 3, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 253 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward North Texas.

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Tulsa is worth +1.4 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 9th percentile.

40% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (17-25 home, 17-34 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.0 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 215 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Tulsa5th0-0
North Texas8th0-0

Full American Athletic standings

North Texas beats Tulsa 45-44 in overtime