Army at Tulsa
Tulsa (4‑3) hosts Army (4‑2). The market has Tulsa favored by 1.5. The model gives Tulsa a 74% shot. Army’s offense is at the 5th percentile on explosive plays; Tulsa’s defense is at the 74th.
How they got here
Last three games
Army · 4-2
Rated 39th in our preseason ratings, 45th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Tulsa · 4-3
Rated 107th in our preseason ratings, 97th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Army’s explosive plays against Tulsa, 69 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Army’s explosive plays against Tulsa’s defense
Army offense, 5th percentile · Tulsa defense, 74th
Army’s success rate against Tulsa’s defense
Army offense, 98th percentile · Tulsa defense, 42nd
Tulsa’s rushing EPA against Army’s defense
Tulsa offense, 69th percentile · Army defense, 11th
What’s at stake
Army
- Army needs 2 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 97% to get there with a win here, 79% with a loss.
- Army is coming off a 32-point win.
Tulsa
- Tulsa needs 2 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 97% to get there with a win here, 78% with a loss.
- Tulsa hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2020.
The series
Tulsa leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 2007 · Tulsa won the last meeting
- 2025Tulsa 26-25
- 2024Army 49-7
- 2007Tulsa 49-39
Each line is Tulsa’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Army
The chip · vs the national mediaBlack Knights fans say the sport treats Army as a quaint December novelty — a parade of cadets and a salute — and forgets that those same cadets went 12-2 and won the Trophy a year ago; they say the respect never arrives until the scoreboard forces it.
Tulsa
The chip · vs the national mediaTulsa fans are tired of being the program everyone forgets is in the FBS — the 4,000-student private school nobody schedules out of respect. They'll remind you it has more bowl history than schools five times its size.
What this game touches
The long slide from the Graham/Blankenship peak. From the 2010 Conference USA title and Bill Blankenship's 11-3 in 2012, Tulsa has had one truly memorable team since (a 2020 AAC title-game run) and otherwise churned coaches and losing records — a 4-8 (1-7) first year under Tre Lamb in 2025 the latest reminder the offense isn't humming the way it once did.
Best players
Army
- Cale Hellums (QB) · 719 rushing yards
- Elijah Walton (LB) · 41 tackles
- Stephen Nnadozie (S) · 33 tackles
Tulsa
- Chris Thompson Jr. (LB) · 66 tackles
- Dax Collins (LB) · 60 tackles
- Oran Singleton Jr. (WR) · 474 receiving yards
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Army: Cale Hellums (719 rushing yards).
The total has moved up 4.0 points since opening (50.5 → 54.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Tulsa fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (70th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 74%
- Line · 55%
- Tulsa fans · 70th
- Army fans · 28th
Tulsa favored by 1.5 · Total 54.5
Tulsa by 1.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Tulsa’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Chapman Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 91, 3:30 pm Saturdays 83
Army at Tulsa · Friday, Oct. 23 · 8:30 pm ET · Chapman Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Chapman Stadium: noon Saturdays score 85, 3:30 pm 83, 7:30 pm 91.
- noon: 85, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 83, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 91, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Tulsa is worth +1.4 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 9th percentile.
40% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (17-25 home, 17-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.0 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,234 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Tulsa
- Wk 3Wvs East Texas A&M42-0
- Wk 4Lat Arkansas6-34
- Wk 5Lvs North Texas44-45
- Wk 6Lat Navy26-34
- Wk 7Wat Rice38-17
Army
- Wk 2Lvs South Florida24-28
- Wk 4Wat Temple21-17
- Wk 5Lat Louisiana Tech29-31
- Wk 6Wvs Tulane20-17
- Wk 7Wvs Florida Atlantic56-24
Power rating by week
Army is rated 5.2 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The total rose 4 points.
Total: 50.5 → 54.5
The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Tulsa 26, Army 25Nov 22, 2025