Rice at Florida Atlantic
Rice (1‑6) travels to Florida Atlantic (4‑2), with Florida Atlantic favored by 8.5. The model gives Florida Atlantic a 69% shot. Rice’s passing offense is at the 1st percentile; Florida Atlantic’s pass defense is at the 61st.
How they got here
Last three games
Rice · 1-6
Rated 181st in our preseason ratings, 152nd now, up 29 spots.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Florida Atlantic · 4-2
Rated 108th in our preseason ratings, 115th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 66-10 vs Texas Southern #228 of 668
won by 56 as a 47.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: Rice’s passing EPA against Florida Atlantic, 60 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Rice’s passing EPA against Florida Atlantic’s defense
Rice offense, 1st percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 61st
Florida Atlantic’s EPA/play against Rice’s defense
Florida Atlantic offense, 70th percentile · Rice defense, 24th
Rice’s explosive plays against Florida Atlantic’s defense
Rice offense, 27th percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 4th
What’s at stake
Rice
- Rice is 3 games back in American Athletic with 4 left to make it up.
- Rice hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2020.
Florida Atlantic
- Florida Atlantic needs 2 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 93% to get there with a win here, 69% with a loss.
- Florida Atlantic is still shaking off a 32-point loss.
The series
The series is tied 3-3
6 meetings since 2013 · Florida Atlantic won the last meeting
- 2025Florida Atlantic 27-21
- 2023Rice 24-21
- 2022Florida Atlantic 17-14
- 2016Florida Atlantic 42-25
- 2015Rice 27-26
Each line is Florida Atlantic’s chance to win through that meeting. Florida Atlantic is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Rice
The chipRice fans carry less of a grudge than a knowing smile: they will tell you their Owls graduate, beat schools ten times their size on a good Saturday, and answer to a standard nobody else in the sport even attempts.
What this game touches
The shrinking — from SWC charter to the smallest room in the AAC. Rice helped found the Southwest Conference and was a national name in the 1940s-50s; the league dissolved in 1996 and the Owls have spent the years since as the smallest enrollment in every conference they join. The 2025 reset under first-year coach Scott Abell went 5-7, reaching the Armed Forces Bowl only because bowl-eligible teams declined, then losing it 41-10 to Texas State.
Florida Atlantic
The chip · vs the national mediaOwls fans know how the program gets framed — a sunny pit stop where good coaches audition for bigger jobs. They believe Boca is worth building at, not just leaving from, and they're tired of being treated like a launchpad.
What this game touches
The post-Kiffin drift. After Kiffin left for Ole Miss in 2019, FAU cycled through coaches and slid back into the pack; Zach Kittley's first year in 2025 went 4-8 (3-5 American), a reminder that the 2017 high was a flash, not a foundation.
Best players
Rice
- AJ Brown (S) · 52 tackles
- Austin Harnetiaux (LB) · 50 tackles
- Stone Combs (LB) · 47 tackles
Florida Atlantic
- Kelby Valsin (WR) · 601 receiving yards
- Easton Messer (WR) · 540 receiving yards
- Caden Veltkamp (QB) · 1,743 passing yards
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Rice: Jacurri Brown (668 rushing yards); Florida Atlantic: Caden Veltkamp (1,743 passing yards).
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward Rice since opening (−10.5 → −8.5).
The total has moved down 6.0 points since opening (58.5 → 52.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Florida Atlantic fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (71st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Florida Atlantic favored by 8.5 · Total 52.5
Florida Atlantic by 8.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Florida Atlantic’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 387 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Warm and windy. No coat needed.
Rice at Florida Atlantic · Saturday, Oct. 24 · noon ET · ESPNU · FAU Stadium. Forecast rain: about 0.03 inch.
- 83°feels like
- 0.03 inforecast rain
- 22%average rain chance
- 29 mphwind gusts
- 85weather score, Mixed
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the lowest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at FAU Stadium: noon Saturdays score 61, 3:30 pm 68, 7:30 pm 88.
- noon: 61, Rough
- 3:30 pm: 68, Rough
- 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Florida Atlantic is worth +4.2 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 52nd percentile.
56% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (24-19 home, 14-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.8 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±7.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 961 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Florida Atlantic
- Wk 2Wvs Navy38-30
- Wk 3Wvs Florida International16-10
- Wk 4Wat UL Monroe45-17
- Wk 5Wvs Texas Southern66-10
- Wk 7Lat Army24-56
Rice
- Wk 3Lvs Western Michigan21-28
- Wk 4Lat Fresno State24-38
- Wk 5Lvs UTSA14-16
- Wk 6Lat East Carolina12-28
- Wk 7Lvs Tulsa17-38
Power rating by week
Florida Atlantic is rated 2.9 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Rice.
The total fell 6 points.
Spread: −10.5 → −8.5 · Total: 58.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Florida Atlantic7th1-1
- Rice14th0-3