UTSA beats Navy 38-34
UTSA beat Navy 38-34. Share this game
We had UTSA favored. It won.
Next: Navy vs North Texas, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Navy underdog by 2.5
Next: UTSA at Tulane, Sat Oct 24 · 8:00 PM ET · UTSA favored by 2.5
How it swung
The turning point: Henderson 31-yd TD run, UTSA goes ahead 31-27 (Q4, 8:17). UTSA went from 46% to 75% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave UTSA a 79% chance, and the closing betting line (UTSA was a 5.5-point favorite) put it at 67%.
UTSA came back from 14 down, at one point just a 26% chance in the second quarter.
Navy led by 14, was as high as 74% in the second quarter, and still lost.
UTSA · Q2 3:5692-yard TD pass
Navy · Q4 12:47UTSA 38-34 NavyUTSA wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Navy 34-38 UTSANavy lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The five plays that swung it
- 1Q2 5:55McCown 14-yd TD pass to Young, ties it 14-14UTSA 54% → 76% (+22)
- 2Q4 12:47Gutierrez 92-yd TD pass to Collins, Navy goes ahead 27-24UTSA 76% → 51% (−25)
- 3Q4 8:17Henderson 31-yd TD run, UTSA goes ahead 31-27UTSA 46% → 75% (+29)
- 4Q4 4:50Woodson 7-yd TD run, Navy goes ahead 34-31UTSA 71% → 48% (−23)
- 5Q4 2:24McCown 41-yd TD pass to Peterson, UTSA goes ahead 38-34UTSA 50% → 79% (+29)
The five plays that swung it
- 1Q2 5:55McCown 14-yd TD pass to Young, ties it 14-14Navy 46% → 24% (−22)
- 2Q4 12:47Gutierrez 92-yd TD pass to Collins, Navy goes ahead 27-24Navy 24% → 49% (+25)
- 3Q4 8:17Henderson 31-yd TD run, UTSA goes ahead 31-27Navy 54% → 25% (−29)
- 4Q4 4:50Woodson 7-yd TD run, Navy goes ahead 34-31Navy 29% → 53% (+24)
- 5Q4 2:24McCown 41-yd TD pass to Peterson, UTSA goes ahead 38-34Navy 50% → 21% (−29)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (UTSA -5.5), at 72% for UTSA (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
UTSA scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Navy on 5 of its 12.
UTSA’s drives are teal, Navy’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Navy’s side
Navy’s best moment: Gutierrez 92-yd TD pass to Collins, Navy goes ahead 27-24 (Q4 12:47). It lifted Navy’s win chance by 25 points.
5 lead changes.
What it cost
UTSA’s chance to make the playoff rose from 10% to 11%.
Make the playoff
Before the game (October 17, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
UTSA plays at Tulane on Sat Oct 24 with an 11% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
UTSA 38, Navy 34
Navy covered +5.5 by 1.5. The total, 72, went over 52.5.
| Team totals | Navy | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 477 | 469 |
| Passing | 4 of 8, 183 yds | 28 of 38, 359 yds |
| Rushing | 48 for 294 yds | 32 for 110 yds |
| First downs | 17 | 22 |
| Third down | 4 of 9 | 5 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | 10 for 71 yds | 7 for 60 yds |
| Time of possession | 28:15 | 31:45 |
Navy leaders
- Passing Jackson Gutierrez 3 of 7, 120 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Jackson Gutierrez 21 for 139 yds, 2 TD; Braxton Woodson 5 for 73 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Jordan Collins 2 for 117 yds, 2 TD; Jackson Gutierrez 1 for 63 yds
UTSA leaders
- Passing Owen McCown 28 of 38, 359 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Will Henderson III 16 for 78 yds, 1 TD; A'Marion Peterson 6 for 17 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving David Amador 7 for 71 yds; Mekhi Anderson 3 for 68 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Navy · 2-3
Rated 72nd in our preseason ratings, 73rd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
UTSA · 5-1
Rated 18th in our preseason ratings, 26th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Week by week
UTSA
- Wk 2Wat Texas State31-26
- Wk 3Lat Texas6-30
- Wk 4Wvs Colorado State59-45
- Wk 5Wat Rice16-14
- Wk 6Wvs South Florida31-24
Navy
- Wk 1Wvs Towson42-15
- Wk 2Lat Florida Atlantic30-38
- Wk 4Lat UAB20-24
- Wk 5Lat Air Force9-14
- Wk 6Wvs Tulsa34-26
Power rating by week
UTSA is rated 6.7 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Navy’s rushing EPA against UTSA, 76 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Navy’s rushing EPA against UTSA’s defense
Navy offense, 90th percentile · UTSA defense, 14th
UTSA’s EPA/play against Navy’s defense
UTSA offense, 77th percentile · Navy defense, 35th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
UTSA fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (70th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 79%
- Line · 67%
- UTSA fans · 70th
- Navy fans · 49th
UTSA favored by 5.5 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
UTSA by 5.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Navy.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: −7 → −5.5 · Total: 55.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
UTSA is worth +7.8 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.
73% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (35-13 home, 22-28 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.1 at home vs. away over 105 games — outside the ±5.6 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 1,414 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.