Temple at Navy
Temple (2‑6) at Navy (2‑6) — Navy is favored by 7.5. Navy’s offense is at the 76th percentile on success rate; Temple’s defense is at the 8th.
How they got here
Last three games
Temple · 2-6
Rated 90th in our preseason ratings, 121st now.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Navy · 2-6
Rated 72nd in our preseason ratings, 76th now.
Three straight losses.
Biggest mismatch: Navy’s success rate against Temple, 68 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Navy’s success rate against Temple’s defense
Navy offense, 76th percentile · Temple defense, 8th
Navy’s passing EPA against Temple’s defense
Navy offense, 87th percentile · Temple defense, 19th
Temple’s explosive plays against Navy’s defense
Temple offense, 45th percentile · Navy defense, 6th
What’s at stake
Temple
- Temple is 3 games back in American Athletic with 3 left to make it up.
- Temple hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2019.
Navy
- Navy is 3 games back in American Athletic with 3 left to make it up.
- Brian Newberry is behind Ken Niumatalolo’s year-4 pace (2-6 vs. 5-3) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
The series
Navy leads the series 11-9
20 meetings since 1988 · Navy has won the last 2
- 2025Navy 32-31
- 2024Navy 38-11
- 2023Temple 32-18
- 2022Navy 27-20
- 2021Navy 38-14
Each line is Navy’s chance to win through that meeting. Navy is 3-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Temple
The chip · vs the national mediaFans are sick of being the program everyone treats as a coaching stepping-stone — the place a Rhule or an Addazio uses to get to the next job. They want Keeler's refusal to be realistic to mean Temple finally keeps a winner instead of exporting one.
What this game touches
The post-Rhule freefall. After Rhule's 2016 AAC title and the program's late-2010s peak, Temple fell apart — a string of two- and three-win seasons that gutted the roster and the relevance, until K.C. Keeler arrived in 2025, went 5-7 in year one, and notably lost zero starters to the transfer portal afterward.
Navy
The chip · vs the national mediaFans hear the option offense called a relic every December — and then watch the Midshipmen, with players half the size of their opponents, go 11-2 and beat a ranked Army team, and wait for the analysts to admit the constraints are the point, not the excuse.
What this game touches
The recruiting math never changes. Navy can't outbid anyone in a transfer-portal, NIL era — every recruit must qualify for the Naval Academy and owe years of active service. The Midshipmen win in spite of constraints no other FBS program faces, and a down year is always one roster crunch away.
Best players
Temple
- Curly Ordonez (LB) · 75 tackles
- Saboor Karriem (S) · 53 tackles
- Keveun Mason (RB) · 564 rushing yards
Navy
- Jackson Gutierrez (QB) · 982 rushing yards
- Coleman Cauley (LB) · 63 tackles
- MarcAnthony Parker (LB) · 57 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Temple: Ajani Sheppard (1,245 passing yards) and Keveun Mason (564 rushing yards); Navy: Jackson Gutierrez (982 rushing yards).
The total has moved up 2.0 points since opening (52.5 → 54.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Temple fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (67th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 27%
- Line · 73%
- Navy fans · 15th
- Temple fans · 67th
Navy favored by 7.5 · Total 54.5
Navy by 7.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Navy’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 450 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Mild. No coat needed.
Temple at Navy · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
- 60°feels like
- 5%average rain chance
- 17 mphwind gusts
- 99weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 11 TV games with a forecast
- Cincinnati at Houston: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Baylor: 100, Ideal
- Penn State at Washington: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: 99, Comfortable
- Temple at Navy: 99, Comfortable
- Hawai'i at UTEP: 98, Comfortable
- UCF at Kansas: 95, Comfortable
- Liberty at New Mexico State: 94, Comfortable
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: 93, Comfortable
- UCLA at Minnesota: 88, Mixed
- Iowa at Northwestern: 87, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm 91, 7:30 pm 94.
- noon: 93, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 91, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Navy is worth +1.6 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 12th percentile.
56% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (23-18 home, 18-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.5 at home vs. away over 91 games — inside the ±6.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 95 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Navy
- Wk 5Lat Air Force9-14
- Wk 6Wvs Tulsa34-26
- Wk 7Lat UTSA34-38
- Wk 8Lvs North Texas39-49
- Wk 9Lvs Notre Dame13-35
Temple
- Wk 4Lvs Army17-21
- Wk 5Wat South Florida17-13
- Wk 6Lvs UConn20-34
- Wk 7Lvs Charlotte31-38
- Wk 9Lat East Carolina9-17
Power rating by week
Navy is rated 3.6 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The total rose 2 points.
Total: 52.5 → 54.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Temple 34, Navy 10American Athletic Championship · Dec 3, 2016