The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Brian Newberry

Followed Ken Niumatalolo. Brian Newberry moved Navy from Regional Program I to National Program III in 4 seasons.

26–12

2023–now · 1 stint

Navy

← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 3rd career season — faster than 25% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #454 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Navy, 4 seasons (active)

+3.8

Regional Program I → National Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Navy5.6pt#220 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

4–2 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Marcus Freeman.

Rivalry record

4–2

66.7% · 2 rivals

One-score games

6–3

66.7% · margin ≤8

Rivalry ledger

Air Force2–167%

Army2–167%

The toughest matchup

vs. Marcus Freeman0–3

3 meetings, 2023–2025

’23 L’24 L’25 L

0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Power Program

1–3 25.0%

National Program

2–4 33.3%

Regional Program

14–4 77.8%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

-0.01

#161 of 319 · a typical amount

Defense marginal impact

+0.35

#29 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2023–now

Navycaretaker

Regional Program I → National Program III

Brian Newberry moved Navy from Regional Program I to National Program III in 4 seasons.

11th-best Navy tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+13.4 pts

#55 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

+54.5 pts

#1 of 208 · more than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Ken Niumatalolo (2007–2022).

Season	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	5–7	10–3	11–2	0–0
Postseason	—	W bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#129	#134	#131	#137
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	26.6	23.3	22.1	21.0
Coordinators
OC	Grant Chesnut	Drew Cronic	Drew Cronic	Drew Cronic
DC	P. J. Volker	P. J. Volker	P. J. Volker	Eric Lewis / Ricky Brown
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	3	75	83	74
Defense	84	80	48	36
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	18.8	19.7	20.1	16.3
Red-zone pass%	27.9	12.3	17.6	0.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	30.8	37.9	50.0	—

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-17

#185 of 187 FBS stints

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

0.0

position-weighted

Talent lost

33.6

position-weighted

Net

-33.6

arrivals minus departures

Biggest loss: Elias Larry (CB) to Colorado State

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Grant Chesnut → Drew Cronic · 2024

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 18.8% → 19.7% (+0.9 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 57% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: P. J. Volker → Eric Lewis / co-Ricky Brown · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

203 lbs

6′2″ avg · #652 of 767 · less than most

Running back

202 lbs

5′11″ avg · #578 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

190 lbs

5′11″ avg · #523 of 791 · a typical amount

Tight end

231 lbs

6′2″ avg · #699 of 731 · less than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Linebacker

214 lbs

6′1″ avg · #767 of 772 · less than most

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows K from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2024: Beat Oklahoma 21–20 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl2025: Beat Cincinnati 35–13 AutoZone Liberty Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Rayuan Lane III (2025), Landon Robinson (2026), Eli Heidenreich (2026)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Landon Robinson (2025)

26–12