Marcus Freeman

Head coach · Notre Dame
5th season · since 2022

At Notre Dame50-13since 2022 · 7-1 this seasonHot seatCool0% · 128th of 132 jobsLast gameW 35-13vs Navy · Oct 31Nextvs MiamiSat Nov 7 · 7:30 pm ET · NBC
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

7-1, on track for 10-2 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerNotre DameUSCUSCMichiganMichiganDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNotre Dame when he took over: 62.3 (Power Program I), its final 2021 readingtook overNotre Dame, 2022: 9-4, Power Program INotre Dame, 2022: 9-4, Power Program I20229-4Notre Dame, 2023: 10-3, Power Program I202310-3Notre Dame, 2024: 14-2, Power Program I202414-2Notre Dame, 2025: 10-2, Power Program I202510-2Notre Dame, 2026: 7-1, Power Program INotre Dame, 2026: 7-1, Power Program I20267-1+3.1best: 2024bracket: consecutive-win streak · gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes16-game win streak (2025-26)

Bowls and playoffs: 5-2 · won 0 of 1 national title game

2021Fiesta BowlL 35-372022Gator BowlW 45-382023Sun BowlW 40-82024CFP first roundW 27-172024 QFSugar BowlW 23-102024 semiOrange BowlW 27-242024CFP title gameL 23-34

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 35-13 vs. Navy Sat Oct 31
  • This season7-1
  • On track for10-2 regular season
  • Nextvs. Miami Sat Nov 7
  • Stature7th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll #5 → #4 up one
  • Playoff odds 70% → 69% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Miami

Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET NBC · No. 1 Miami is 8-0 · Freeman vs. Mario Cristobal: 0-1 · Notre Dame’s chance to win: 65% (the site’s model)

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 5th of 138 per play. Defense: 14th.

Offense, per play5thRunning offense10thDefense, per play14thDefense, opponents' starting field position2ndWorstBest
Offense, per play5th of 138Running offense10th of 138Defense, per play14th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position2nd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Notre Dame. The other two rows are where Notre Dame stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Miami (8-0)NBC65%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Boston College (4-4)NBC99%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. SMU (6-2)NBC87%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Syracuse (4-4)96%

Percent: Notre Dame’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Notre Dame has held at 7th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 35-13 vs. Navy36 headlines · 17th of 138Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman accomplishes impressive feat after big win vs. Navy Yahoo Sports
  2. Oct 19–25No game9 headlines · 45th of 138Marcus Freeman won't blame Big 12 officiating in controversial loss: 'Not what we do' USA Today
  3. Oct 12–18L 24-28 at BYU19 headlines · 21st of 138Marcus Freeman gets completely honest on coaching Notre Dame Fighting Irish Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11W 58-7 vs. Stanford13 headlines · 32nd of 138‘They want to play the best’: What Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman said about turning page to BYU On3“They want to play the best”What Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman said about turning page to BYU, Oct 11
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 37-26 at North Carolina21 headlines · 24th of 138Marcus Freeman may have uncovered Notre Dame's next difference-maker USA Today
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 49-10 at Purdue15 headlines · 27th of 138Notre Dame Cruises To Victory Over Purdue To Complete Marcus Freeman's First Perfect September Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Notre Dame’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Top-quarter on both sides of the ball — 87th percentile offense, 88th percentile defense.

Notre Dame, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

A
of which —87th
efficiency — 87th percentile success rate, 2022–25
A83rd
Standard-downs success
A84th
Passing-downs success
B+75th
Trench push (line yards)
B-52nd
Red-zone scoring rate
C+48th
Power-success (short yardage)
B+70th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

A
of which —88th
88th percentile SP+ defense, 2022–25
A80th
Front-7 havoc
A81st
Secondary havoc
B-52nd
Stuff rate (run defense)
B+73rd
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

12%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobNoticed11th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Age 40 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 27.0 points a game · AP-ranked
  • ▲ Higher
    24-4 over his previous two seasons here
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.