Miami at Notre Dame
Usual during the game: 45°, between 34° and 55° in about 7 in 10 games.
Miami's home is usually 77° on this date, 32° warmer than here.
Airport reading near the stadium35 games since 2016 · How we measure
Miami (#1, 8‑0) at Notre Dame (#4, 7‑1) — Notre Dame is favored by 5.5. The model gives Notre Dame a 67% shot. Miami’s passing offense is at the 100th percentile; Notre Dame’s pass defense is at the 37th.
How they got here
Last three games
Miami · 8-0
Rated 10th in our preseason ratings, 5th now.
Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
Notre Dame · 7-1
Rated 1st in our preseason ratings, 1st now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Miami’s passing EPA against Notre Dame, 63 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Miami’s passing EPA against Notre Dame’s defense
Miami offense, 100th percentile · Notre Dame defense, 37th
Notre Dame’s EPA/play against Miami’s defense
Notre Dame offense, 98th percentile · Miami defense, 67th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Notre Dame projected #2 seed · Miami projected #6 seed
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
The series
Notre Dame leads the series 18-9-1
28 meetings since 1955 · Miami has won the last 2
- 2025Miami 27-24
- 2017Miami 41-8
- 2016Notre Dame 30-27
- 2012Notre Dame 41-3
- 2010 · neutral siteNotre Dame 33-17
Each line is Notre Dame’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Miami
The chip · vs the national mediaFans here believe the take that 'The U' is nostalgia — that the swagger died with the 80s and 90s and Miami has coasted on old highlights for twenty years. The 2025 run was the program's argument that the chip is back; the loss left it unsettled.
What this game touches
The 2025 title game — six points, at home, from The U being back. Miami reached its first national-championship game since 2001 — at Hard Rock Stadium, its own building — and lost 27-21 to undefeated Indiana, an interception at the Hoosiers' 6 with 44 seconds left ending it. The closest The U has come to all the way back, and the cruelest.
Notre Dame
The chip · vs the committeeThe fanbase's read is simple and bitter: ten straight wins were worth less than a Week 1 result the committee chose to weight, and a program with no conference title to wave gets judged on a standard the leagues never have to meet. They say the snub wasn't an accident — it was the price of going it alone.
What this game touches
The 2025 Playoff snub. Notre Dame opened 0-2, then won ten straight — many in routs, including a home win over a ranked USC — and finished No. 11 at 10-2. The committee gave the final at-large bid to Miami on the head-to-head from the Week 1 opener; Notre Dame declined a non-Playoff bowl rather than treat the leftover as a reward.
Best players
Miami
- Malachi Toney (WR) · 1,027 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 4th (+300)
- Darian Mensah (QB) · 2,425 passing yards — Heisman odds: 2nd (+150)
- Mohamed Toure (LB) · 44 tackles
Notre Dame
- C.J. Carr (QB) · 1,849 passing yards — Heisman odds: 3rd (+650)
- Drayk Bowen (LB) · 45 tackles
- Jordan Faison (WR) · 497 receiving yards
What to watch
Player to watch: Darian Mensah (QB) — Miami’s leading passer (2,425 passing yards) takes on Notre Dame’s pass defense (37th percentile allowed).
The total has moved up 3.0 points since opening (54.5 → 57.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Notre Dame fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (17th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Notre Dame favored by 5.5 · Total 57.5
Notre Dame by 5.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Notre Dame’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Notre Dame Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 88
Miami at Notre Dame · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 7:30 pm ET · Notre Dame Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Notre Dame Stadium: noon Saturdays score 88, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 86.
- noon: 88, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 86, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Notre Dame is worth +3.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 42nd percentile.
89% at home, 78% on the road against FBS opponents (48-6 home, 29-8 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.1 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,140 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Notre Dame
- Wk 4Wat Purdue49-10
- Wk 5Wat North Carolina37-26
- Wk 6Wvs Stanford58-7
- Wk 7Lat BYU24-28
- Wk 9Wat Navy35-13
Miami
- Wk 4Wvs Central Michigan52-3
- Wk 5Wat Clemson41-13
- Wk 7Wvs Florida State43-35
- Wk 8Wvs Pittsburgh52-23
- Wk 9Wat North Carolina38-35
Power rating by week
Notre Dame is rated 2.6 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Miami.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: −6.5 → −5.5 · Total: 54.5 → 57.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Last meeting in our History pages
- Miami 27, Notre Dame 24Aug 31, 2025
Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2016.