Before kickoff, our ratings gave Miami a 94% chance, and the closing betting line (Miami was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.
A tight one: Miami bottomed out at 40% and won.
Florida State never had better than a 60% chance.
TargetingQ1 6:2175-yard TD passFlorida State · Q4 2:39
FinalMiami 43-35 Florida StateMiami wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.1 in of rain
FinalFlorida State 35-43 MiamiFlorida State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.1 in of rain
The two plays that swung it
1Q4 0:3545-yd puntMiami 86% → 68% (−18)
2OTMallory 25-yd TD run, ties it 35-35Miami 56% → 83% (+27)
The two plays that swung it
1Q4 0:3545-yd puntFlorida State 14% → 32% (+18)
2OTMallory 25-yd TD run, ties it 35-35Florida State 44% → 17% (−27)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 3:56Florida State fans rip Mike Norvell for running Kromah on fourth down instead of kickingHow many times is Norvell going to get stuffed at the goal line on fourth down??? Kick both FGs and you’re down by 1. Come on dude how are you so bad at your job?r/CFB game threadI'm so tired of the incompetence of Florida State.r/CFB game thread
Q3 4:09Daniels throws touchdown pass to Wisner as fans celebrate chaos dayQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 14:14Fans mock Michael Irvin for acting like a clown on the Miami sidelinesMichael Irvin still acting like a clown on the sidelinesr/CFB game threadMichael Irvin in doggystyle on the sideline wtf😭r/CFB game thread
Q4 10:14A player named Malachi Toney made a big run.Second play tonight that was almost great defense and turned into huge gain for canesr/CFB game thread
Q4 8:57Wisner fumbles, Miami recovers; fans debate holding penalty and mock Michael IrvinCouldn't find Irvin on a sideline when Miami sucked.r/CFB game thread
Q4 2:49Daniels throws 75-yard touchdown pass to Robinson, tying the gameGenerational mog off between Norvell and Mario with each passing TD lolr/CFB game thread
Miami’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Miami -20.5), at 95% for Miami (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Miami or Florida State flair (765 and 1,235); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.1 in of rain is more than fell in 97% of games since 2018. Measured at Hollywood/n. Perry airport, 2.9 miles away. Full conditions below.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Miami’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Miami scored on 6 of its 14 drives; Florida State on 5 of its 15.
Miami’s drives are teal, Florida State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Florida State’s side
Florida State’s best moment: 45-yd punt (Q4 0:35). It lifted Florida State’s win chance by 18 points.
How Florida State fans took it: “The call on the final play wasn't even the job. It was the weak holding call when Mialmi had been committing holding atrocities for the whole quarter” r/CFB game thread
“Man I can't do these commercials anymore please god”
A Miami fan
When fans got loud
Firestorm
The jump was firestorm; the crowd was firestorm.
Two crowds, one game
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Miami fans
mallory“Been working out with Mallory’s high school coach lately (says Boca something), he is incredibly bullish on this kid”
Florida State fans
norvell“That’s ballgame. I have zero faith in Norvell being able to get a touchdown and a 2 point conversion.”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: call, ball, every, field.
What it cost
Miami’s chance to make the playoff rose from 79% to 80%.
Make the playoff
Florida State · lost0% → 0%
Miami · won79% → ▲80%
Win the conference
Florida State · lost0% → 0%
Miami · won69% → ▲70%
Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Miami plays vs Pittsburgh on Sat Oct 24 with an 80% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
Miami 43, Florida State 35
Florida State covered +20.5 by 12.5. The total, 78, went over 57.5.
Team totals
Florida State
Miami
Total yards
443
583
Passing
16 of 30, 305 yds
23 of 34, 326 yds
Rushing
34 for 138 yds
44 for 257 yds
First downs
19
26
Third down
5 of 12
8 of 15
Fourth down
0 of 3
0 of 2
Turnovers
2
1
Penalties
5 for 35 yds
6 for 68 yds
Time of possession
22:40
37:20
Florida State leaders
Passing Ashton Daniels 15 of 28, 298 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Tre Wisner 9 for 63 yds; Ousmane Kromah 14 for 44 yds
Receiving Duce Robinson 5 for 113 yds, 2 TD; Tre Wisner 4 for 56 yds, 1 TD
Miami leaders
Passing Darian Mensah 23 of 34, 326 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Javian Mallory 13 for 108 yds, 2 TD; Mark Fletcher Jr. 16 for 66 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Malachi Toney 11 for 154 yds, 2 TD; Daylyn Upshaw 4 for 91 yds
Rain for part of the game
76° at kickoff · 0.05 to 0.1 in of rain at two airports · wind 9 mph from the north, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 20
0.1 in of rain is more than fell in 97% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
no rain · wind 13 mph from the north, mostly at an angle to the field · 76°
Mallory 25-yd TD run, ties it 35-35
Jump to
The same game in two conditions
Heavier rain
Light rain or none
Runs and passes
30
108
Share that were passes
37%
50%
Yards per play
6.5
7.2
Turnovers
0
3
The numbers are small: read it as a description, not a result. How this is countedHeavier rain means 0.02 inch or more in 10 minutes at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Hollywood/n. Perry airport, 2.9 miles away, and Miami/opa Locka airport, 4.3 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
This is FSU-Miami — see the full head-to-head history →
Recent games
Last three games
Florida State · 3-3
Rated 82nd in our preseason ratings, 63rd now, up 19 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 31-point win over Virginia as a 1.5-point underdog.
Miami is rated 10.6 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Miami’s EPA/play against Florida State, 85 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Miami’s EPA/play against Florida State’s defense
Miami offense, 100th percentile · Florida State defense, 15th
Miami’s passing EPA against Florida State’s defense
Miami offense, 100th percentile · Florida State defense, 24th
Miami’s explosive plays against Florida State’s defense
Miami offense, 68th percentile · Florida State defense, 23rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Florida StateMiami
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Miami leads the series 37-33
70 meetings since 1951 · Miami has won the last 2
2025Miami 28-22
2024Miami 36-14
2023Florida State 27-20
2022Florida State 45-3
2021Florida State 31-28
Each line is Miami’s chance to win through that meeting. Miami is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Miami fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (72nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Miami favored by 20.5 · Total 57.5
How games like this usually go
Miami by 20.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward Miami.
The total rose 4 points.
Spread: −16.5 → −20.5 · Total: 53.5 → 57.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Miami has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +1.0 points (±4.0), home against road — 6th percentile of FBS.
70% at home, 60% on the road against FBS opponents (33-14 home, 26-17 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.7 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 396 miles to get here.
Florida State · Q4 2:39
Miami 43-35 Florida State