Regular season ·

Miami beat Florida State

No. 3 Miami5-028
No. 18 Florida State3-222Final
Sat, Oct 4 · Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Fla. · Crowd 67,277 · 82°, cloudyABC

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

No. 3 Miami beat No. 18 Florida State by 6 points.

How the game turned

Miami aheadFlorida State aheadBiggest swingLow: 34%
1234

Q2 11:25 Miami 14, Florida State 3

Miami 86% to win

Beck 44-yd TD pass to Toney, Miami leads 14-3

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 10:02 · Miami 0, Florida State 3Miami's win chance fell from 45% to 38%.Weinberg 23-yd field goal, Florida State goes ahead 3-0
  2. 2Q1 0:50 · Miami 7, Florida State 3Miami's win chance rose from 47% to 65%.Beck 4-yd TD pass to Daniels, Miami goes ahead 7-3
  3. 3Q2 11:25 · Miami 14, Florida State 3Miami's win chance rose from 66% to 86%.Beck 44-yd TD pass to Toney, Miami leads 14-3
  4. 4Q3 9:09 · Miami 21, Florida State 3Miami's win chance rose from 84% to 95%.Beck 40-yd TD pass to Toney, Miami leads 21-3

Miami's lowest chance to win was 34 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 11:25 left in the 2nd quarter, Miami's chance to win went from 66 percent to 86 percent when Miami scored a touchdown.

The score went from Miami 7, Florida State 3 to Miami 14, Florida State 3.

The play: Beck 44-yd TD pass to Toney, Miami leads 14-3.

What happened next

  1. Florida State's next game: L 31-34 vs Pittsburgh, Oct 11

    7 days later

  2. Miami's next game: L 21-24 vs Louisville, Oct 17

    13 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Oct 4, 2025: Miami 43, Florida State 35, Oct 17, 2026

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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