Regular season ·
Louisville beat Miami
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
Louisville beat No. 2 Miami by 3 points.
Miami was No. 2 in the AP poll before the game; Louisville was not ranked.
How the game turned
Q4 7:37 Louisville 24, Miami 21
Louisville 59% to win
Toney 12-yd TD run, two-point try good, cuts it to 24-21
Big moments
- 1Q1 8:55 · Louisville 7, Miami 0Louisville's win chance rose from 22% to 41%.Moss 1-yd TD run, Louisville goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q1 5:09 · Louisville 14, Miami 0Louisville's win chance rose from 44% to 66%.Moss 35-yd TD pass to Bell, Louisville leads 14-0
- 3Q4 7:37 · Louisville 24, Miami 21Louisville's win chance fell from 99% to 59%.Toney 12-yd TD run, two-point try good, cuts it to 24-21
Louisville's lowest chance to win was 20 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 7:37 left in the 4th quarter, Miami's chance to win went from 1 percent to 41 percent when Miami scored a touchdown.
The score went from Louisville 24, Miami 13 to Louisville 24, Miami 21.
The play: Toney 12-yd TD run, two-point try good, cuts it to 24-21.
What happened next
Louisville's next game: W 38-24 vs Boston College, Oct 25
8 days laterMiami's next game: W 42-7 vs Stanford, Oct 25
8 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.