Pittsburgh at Miami
Usual during the game: 79°, between 75° and 83° in about 7 in 10 games.
Pittsburgh's home is usually 54° on this date, 25° colder than here.
Airport reading near the stadium36 games since 2016 · How we measure
Pittsburgh (5‑2) travels to Miami (#1, 6‑0), with Miami favored by 19.5. The model gives Miami a 83% shot. Miami’s offense is at the 68th percentile on explosive plays; Pittsburgh’s defense is at the 5th.
How they got here
Last three games
Pittsburgh · 5-2
Rated 47th in our preseason ratings, 48th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 2-point win over Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point underdog.
W 12-7 vs UCF #93 of 668
won by 5 as a 7.5-point favorite
Last three games
Miami · 6-0
Rated 10th in our preseason ratings, 5th now.
Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: Miami’s explosive plays against Pittsburgh, 63 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Miami’s explosive plays against Pittsburgh’s defense
Miami offense, 68th percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 5th
Miami’s passing EPA against Pittsburgh’s defense
Miami offense, 100th percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 45th
Pittsburgh’s EPA/play against Miami’s defense
Pittsburgh offense, 53rd percentile · Miami defense, 87th
What’s at stake
Pittsburgh
- Pittsburgh is ranked #25, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Pittsburgh is the program with nine national titles in football history and a 2021 ACC championship that reminded the country it's still here.
Miami
- Miami is ranked #1 — a loss here would be a real blow to the résumé.
- Miami is the program that invented swagger and is still deciding what it owes that legacy.
The series
Miami leads the series 30-12-1
43 meetings since 1950 · Miami won the last meeting
- 2025Miami 38-7
- 2022Pittsburgh 42-16
- 2021Miami 38-34
- 2020Miami 31-19
- 2019Miami 16-12
Each line is Miami’s chance to win through that meeting. Miami is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Pittsburgh
The chip · vs the national mediaThe fanbase has heard the program written off as an afterthought for two decades and bristles every time, because Pitt was a national power before half the programs dismissing it existed. They don't want sympathy; they want the country to remember the receipts.
What this game touches
The forgotten power. Pitt won a national title in 1976 and produced Tony Dorsett and Dan Marino, then spent the modern era as an overlooked program whose history outweighs its present. The 2021 ACC title under Pat Narduzzi briefly broke the silence; the wound is that the country still acts like Pitt football is a question mark, not a heritage.
Miami
The chip · vs the national mediaFans here believe the take that 'The U' is nostalgia — that the swagger died with the 80s and 90s and Miami has coasted on old highlights for twenty years. The 2025 run was the program's argument that the chip is back; the loss left it unsettled.
What this game touches
The 2025 title game — six points, at home, from The U being back. Miami reached its first national-championship game since 2001 — at Hard Rock Stadium, its own building — and lost 27-21 to undefeated Indiana, an interception at the Hoosiers' 6 with 44 seconds left ending it. The closest The U has come to all the way back, and the cruelest.
Best players
Pittsburgh
- Cruce Brookins (DB) · 46 tackles
- Cataurus Hicks (WR) · 500 receiving yards
- Jeremiah Marcelin (LB) · 39 tackles
Miami
- Malachi Toney (WR) · 758 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 4th (+1250)
- Darian Mensah (QB) · 1,764 passing yards — Heisman odds: 2nd (+325)
- Mohamed Toure (LB) · 30 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Darian Mensah (QB) — Miami’s leading passer (1,764 passing yards) takes on Pittsburgh’s pass defense (45th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 4.0 points toward Pittsburgh since opening (−23.5 → −19.5).
The total has moved down 5.0 points since opening (53.5 → 48.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Miami fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (44th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
- Model · 83%
- Line · 94%
- Miami fans · 44th
- Pittsburgh fans · 33rd
Miami favored by 19.5 · Total 48.5
Miami by 19.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Miami’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Warm and windy. No coat needed.
Pittsburgh at Miami · Saturday, Oct. 24 · noon ET · ESPN · Hard Rock Stadium. Forecast rain: about 0.02 inch.
- 84°feels like
- 0.02 inforecast rain
- 16%average rain chance
- 29 mphwind gusts
- 85weather score, Mixed
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the lowest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Hard Rock Stadium: noon Saturdays score 62, 3:30 pm 68, 7:30 pm 88.
- noon: 62, Rough
- 3:30 pm: 68, Rough
- 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Miami has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +1.0 points (±4.0), home against road — 6th percentile of FBS.
70% at home, 60% on the road against FBS opponents (33-14 home, 26-17 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.7 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,001 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Miami
- Wk 2Wvs Florida A&M77-7
- Wk 3Wat Wake Forest33-20
- Wk 4Wvs Central Michigan52-3
- Wk 5Wat Clemson41-13
- Wk 7Wvs Florida State43-35
Pittsburgh
- Wk 3Wvs Syracuse27-13
- Wk 4Wvs Bucknell59-0
- Wk 5Wat Virginia Tech35-33
- Wk 6Lvs North Carolina17-21
- Wk 7Lat Boston College21-27
Power rating by week
Miami is rated 9.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward Pittsburgh.
The total fell 5 points.
Spread: −23.5 → −19.5 · Total: 53.5 → 48.5
The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Miami1st4-0
- Pittsburgh7th2-2
Last meeting in our History pages
- Pittsburgh 24, Miami 14Nov 24, 2017