CMU Central Michigan 2-2 3 MIA No. 6 Miami4-0 52 Final No. 6 Miami routed Central Michigan 52-3. Share this game
We had Miami favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
ACC refs are like no other
Q3 8:34 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26 How it swung Watch the plays Drives What it cost Box score Weather Before kickoff How it swung Before kickoff, our ratings gave Miami a 97% chance, and the closing betting line (Miami was a 41.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.
Miami led by 4 after the first quarter and by 32 at the half.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0 +49 +49 Fumble return TD Miami · Q3 6:00Final Miami 52-3 Central Michigan Miami won Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. Final Central Michigan 3-52 Miami Central Michigan lost Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. 50% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Miami Won 52-3 Scores Fumble return TD Miami C. 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Michigan Miami Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 1 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute Central Michigan fans: 0 comments a 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See it from Central Michigan’s side No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 11:23 Miami fans panic over offensive line struggles after a three-and-out drive Only one drive but starting to panic about that offensive line. r/CFB game thread This team better shape up or conference play will not be kind to us. r/CFB game thread Q1 5:56 Central Michigan scores a field goal to take a 3-0 lead over Miami In my very non-biased opinion, I think we've seen enough and the game should be called. r/CFB game thread Q1 1:58 Mallory runs for a touchdown as Miami fans mock Central Michigan There’s the TD r/CFB game thread Q2 3:22 Miami fans celebrate the 28-3 lead and look ahead to Clemson Well next week is Clemson r/CFB game thread thank you duke. incredible trade this off-season. r/CFB game thread Q3 8:34 Miami fans rage at phantom OPI call on Mensah pass to Jacobs Quoted at the top of the page. Do these refs get paid per flag? r/CFB game thread Miami’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chart Starts from the pregame line (Miami -41.5), at 99% for Miami (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Miami or Central Michigan flair (281 and 25); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to. Watch the plays The bar and the arrow show Miami’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Play all in order Q1, 13:18 Mensah sacked for a 10-yd loss Q1, 13:18 · Miami 0, Central Michigan 0 0-0 score after the play 0-0 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playACC Digital Network Q1, 1:58 Mallory 4-yd TD run Miami goes ahead 7-3 Q1, 1:58 · Miami 7, Central Michigan 3 7-3 score after the play 7-3 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playACC Digital Network Q2, 12:47 Mensah 11-yd TD pass to Upshaw Miami leads 14-3 Q2, 12:47 · Miami 14, Central Michigan 3 14-3 score after the play 14-3 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playACC Digital Network Q2, 9:45 Mensah 8-yd TD pass to Toney Miami leads 21-3 Q2, 9:45 · Miami 21, Central Michigan 3 21-3 score after the play 21-3 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playACC Digital Network Q2, 3:22 Mensah 13-yd TD pass to Barkate Miami leads 28-3 Q2, 3:22 · Miami 28, Central Michigan 3 28-3 score after the play 28-3 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playACC Digital Network Q2, 0:06 Mensah 5-yd TD run Miami leads 35-3 Q2, 0:06 · Miami 35, Central Michigan 3 35-3 score after the play 35-3 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playACC Digital Network Q3, 9:42 Glasser sacked for a 8-yd loss, fumbles; personal foul on Canes touchdown nullified Q3, 9:42 · Miami 35, Central Michigan 3 35-3 score after the play 35-3 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playACC Digital Network Q3, 6:00 Lyle fumbles, Meriweather returns it for a TD Miami leads 42-3 Q3, 6:00 · Miami 42, Central Michigan 3 42-3 score after the play 42-3 score after the play ▶ Watch the playACC Digital Network Q4, 10:29 Wheatley-Humphrey 35-yd TD run Miami leads 52-3 Q4, 10:29 · Miami 52, Central Michigan 3 52-3 score after the play 52-3 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playACC Digital Network Q4, 3:06 Glasser intercepted by Jennings at the CANES07 returned 24 yards Q4, 3:06 · Miami 52, Central Michigan 3 52-3 score after the play 52-3 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playACC Digital Network
Every drive Miami scored on 7 of its 10 drives; Central Michigan on 1 of its 10.
Miami’s drives are teal, Central Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
own goal goal line Q1 Miami: Punt, from 75 yards out to 65 Punt Central Michigan: Field goal, from 71 yards out to 31 Field goal Miami: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0 Touchdown Central Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70 Punt Q2 Miami: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0 Touchdown Central Michigan: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 73 Fumble Miami: Touchdown, from 27 yards out to 0 Touchdown Central Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80 Punt Miami: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0 Touchdown Central Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 50 Punt Miami: Touchdown, from 97 yards out to 0 Touchdown Central Michigan: End of half, from 75 yards out to 72 End of half Q3 Central Michigan: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 37 Fumble Miami: Fumble Return returned for a touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0 Fumble Return TD Central Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72 Punt Miami: Field goal, from 49 yards out to 15 Field goal Q4 Central Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73 Punt Miami: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0 Touchdown Central Michigan: Interception, from 75 yards out to 30 Interception Miami: End of game, from 69 yards out to 47 End of game “Honestly best part of this thread is just FireUpChips247 holding it down for his whole team. Good for him. Respect.” A Miami fan When fans got loud Roaring
The biggest reaction came in the third quarter.
Jump to the loudest stretch
The jump was roaring; the crowd was quiet.
A large share of the loudest stretch was about the officiating.
First Second Third Fourth Miami fans Central Michigan fans usual Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.
“Will they show us the penalty?” A Miami fan What it cost Miami’s chance to make the playoff fell from 70% to 68%.
Make the playoff
Central Michigan · lost 0% → 0%
Miami · won 70% → ▼ 68% 70% ▼ 68%
Win the conference
Central Michigan · lost 2% → 2%
Miami · won 60% → ▼ 58% 60% ▼ 58%
Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score Miami 52, Central Michigan 3
Miami covered −41.5 by 7.5. The total, 55, went over 52.5.
Central Michigan Miami Total yards Central Michigan 158 Miami 572 158 572 Passing yards Central Michigan 137 Miami 371 137 371 Rushing yards Central Michigan 21 Miami 201 21 201 First downs Central Michigan 10 Miami 31 10 31 Turnovers Central Michigan 3 Miami 0 3 0 Time of possession Central Michigan 28:50 Miami 31:10 28:50 31:10 Team totals Central Michigan Miami Total yards 158 572 Passing 21 of 26, 137 yds 27 of 34, 371 yds Rushing 25 for 21 yds 34 for 201 yds First downs 10 31 Third down 6 of 14 6 of 9 Fourth down 0 of 0 1 of 1 Turnovers 3 0 Penalties 6 for 36 yds 13 for 107 yds Time of possession 28:50 31:10
Central Michigan leaders Passing Jadyn Glasser 13 of 15, 88 yds, 1 INTRushing Nicholas Woodford 6 for 21 yds; Jayden Clerveaux 6 for 13 ydsReceiving Tayte Vanderleest 1 for 24 yds; Langston Lewis 2 for 22 ydsMiami leaders Passing Darian Mensah 23 of 27, 338 yds, 3 TDRushing Chris Wheatley-Humphrey 11 for 104 yds, 1 TD; Girard Pringle Jr. 7 for 38 ydsReceiving Malachi Toney 6 for 120 yds, 1 TD; Cooper Barkate 4 for 47 yds, 1 TDNo rain and calm 83° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the north, gusts to 12
September game-day temperatures at Hard Rock Stadium
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Miami favored Central Michigan favored 100% Win chance Miami Rain inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind mph, average and gusts 20 mph 40 mph Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Miami favored Central Michigan favored Rain · inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind · miles per hour 20 40 Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
First quarter, 14:49 left6:41 p.m.
Central Michigan 0, Miami 0 · Miami 99% to win
no rain · wind 8 mph from the north, gusts to 14 · 83°
Mensah 7-yd pass to Lofton
Previous play Next play
Where this weather comes from Measured at Hollywood/n. Perry airport, 2.9 miles away, and Miami/opa Locka airport, 4.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Matchups Biggest mismatch: Miami’s EPA/play against Central Michigan, 81 points Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Miami’s EPA/play against Central Michigan’s defense
81 points weaker stronger 50th Miami offense, 100th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 19th
Central Michigan’s passing EPA against Miami’s defense
68 points weaker stronger 50th Central Michigan offense, 3rd percentile · Miami defense, 71st
Miami’s explosive plays against Central Michigan’s defense
24 points weaker stronger 50th Miami offense, 68th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 92nd
Season profile, all the rows Season profile Central Michigan Miami
EPA/play, offense
Central Michigan · 25 Miami · 100 EPA/play, defense
Central Michigan · 19 Miami · 87 Success rate, offense
Central Michigan · 11 Miami · 99 Success rate, defense
Central Michigan · 8 Miami · 89 Explosive-play rate, offense
Central Michigan · 56 Miami · 68 Explosive-play rate, defense
Central Michigan · 92 Miami · 59 Rush EPA, offense
Central Michigan · 53 Miami · 58 Rush EPA, defense
Central Michigan… Miami · 93 Pass EPA, offense
Central Michigan · 3 Miami · 100 Pass EPA, defense
Central Michigan · 54 Miami · 71 The series Miami leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2019 · Miami won the last meeting
2019 Miami 17-12 Miami won 17-12 vs Central Michigan. Chance to win started at 96%, low 84%, high 99%. Each line is Miami’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field The betting line, and the fans Miami fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (40th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
50-50 Model 97% · Line 100% Miami fans · 40th Central Michigan fans · 47th Central Michigan Miami Miami favored by 41.5 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go Miami by 41.5, and it went to form 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Half of games 8 in 10 games This game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market The spread moved 1 point toward Central Michigan.
opened −42.5 now −41.5 The total fell 2 points.
opened 54.5 now 52.5 Spread: −42.5 → −41.5 · Total: 54.5 → 52.5
Weather at kickoff Warm and dry. Feels like 82° at kickoff.
Central Michigan at Miami · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens
82°feels like at kickoff Dry no rain at kickoff 92weather score, Comfortable Tied for the best of the day's 8 kickoff times At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Hard Rock Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 94, against 92 at 6 pm.
Rough
Mixed
Comfortable
Ideal (100) 69 Rough 68 Rough 66 Rough 68 Rough 71 Rough 79 Mixed 92 Comfortable 94 Comfortable
noon 12:45 pm 2 pm 3:30 pm 4 pm 5 pm 6 pm 7 pm
noon: 69, Rough 12:45 pm: 68, Rough 2 pm: 66, Rough 3:30 pm: 68, Rough 4 pm: 71, Rough 5 pm: 79, Mixed 6 pm: 92, Comfortable (this game) 7 pm: 94, Comfortable Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field Miami has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +1.0 points (±4.0), home against road — 6th percentile of FBS.
70% at home, 60% on the road against FBS opponents (33-14 home, 26-17 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why ); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.7 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,244 miles to get here.