Central Michigan beats Akron 41-17
Team pages: Akron · Central Michigan
Central Michigan beat Akron 41-17. Share this game
We had Central Michigan favored. It won.
How it swung
The turning point: 38-yd punt (Q1, 10:16). Central Michigan went from 55% to 78% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Central Michigan a 55% chance, and the closing betting line (Central Michigan was a 6.5-point favorite) put it at 70%.
Central Michigan won by 24, after dipping to 47% in the second quarter.
Akron never had better than a 53% chance.
Central Michigan · Q2 7:32Central Michigan 41-17 Akron
Central Michigan wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Akron 17-41 Central MichiganAkron lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:1638-yd puntCentral Michigan 55% → 78% (+23)
- 2Q2 10:374th and 1Flores 55-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Central Michigan 48% → 71% (+23)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:1638-yd puntAkron 45% → 22% (−23)
- 2Q2 10:374th and 1Flores 55-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Akron 52% → 29% (−23)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Central Michigan -6.5), at 78% for Central Michigan (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Central Michigan scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Akron on 3 of its 12.
Central Michigan’s drives are teal, Akron’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Akron’s side
Akron’s best moment: Gant 9-yd TD run, Akron goes ahead 7-0 (Q2 13:59). It lifted Akron’s win chance by 13 points.
What it cost
Akron’s chance to win the conference fell from 3% to 1%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Central Michigan 41, Akron 17
Central Michigan covered −6.5 by 17.5. The total, 58, went over 47.5.
| Team totals | Akron | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 340 | 481 |
| Passing | 15 of 32, 180 yds | 8 of 17, 149 yds |
| Rushing | 36 for 160 yds | 45 for 332 yds |
| First downs | 20 | 20 |
| Third down | 6 of 14 | 3 of 9 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Penalties | 6 for 58 yds | 7 for 77 yds |
| Time of possession | 30:40 | 29:20 |
Akron leaders
- Passing Brayden Roggow 15 of 32, 180 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Rushing Jordan Gant 17 for 102 yds, 1 TD; Sean Patrick 6 for 31 yds
- Receiving Marcel Williams 2 for 36 yds; Miles Burris 2 for 35 yds
Central Michigan leaders
- Passing Angel H Flores 7 of 14, 78 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Angel H Flores 18 for 154 yds, 1 TD; Jayden Clerveaux 12 for 82 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Langston Lewis 1 for 71 yds, 1 TD; Shawn Foster 2 for 53 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
64° at kickoff · no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Mount Pleasant airport, 3.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Akron · 1-3
Rated 58th in our preseason ratings, 91st now.
1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last 4 games
Central Michigan · 2-2
Rated 120th in our preseason ratings, 130th now.
2-2 in its last 4, including a 14-point win over Wyoming as a 1.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Central Michigan
- Wk 1Lat New Mexico7-38
- Wk 2Wvs Colgate13-10
- Wk 3Wvs Wyoming24-10
- Wk 4Lat Miami3-52
Akron
- Wk 1Lat Wake Forest16-38
- Wk 2Wvs Robert Morris45-10
- Wk 3Lat Minnesota7-41
- Wk 4Lvs UNLV10-38
Power rating by week
Akron is rated 3.2 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Akron’s explosive plays against Central Michigan, 80 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Akron’s explosive plays against Central Michigan’s defense
Akron offense, 12th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 92nd
Akron’s rushing EPA against Central Michigan’s defense
Akron offense, 56th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 15th
Akron’s success rate against Central Michigan’s defense
Akron offense, 39th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 8th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Central Michigan leads the series 18-8-1
27 meetings since 1977 · Akron won the last meeting
- 2025Akron 28-22
- 2023Central Michigan 17-10
- 2022Central Michigan 28-21
- 2019Central Michigan 45-24
- 2018Akron 17-10
Each line is Central Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting. Central Michigan is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Central Michigan fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (75th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 55%
- Line · 70%
- Central Michigan fans · 75th
- Akron fans · 58th
Central Michigan favored by 6.5 · Total 47.5
How games like this usually go
Central Michigan by 6.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Central Michigan.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −5.5 → −6.5 · Total: 46.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Mild and dry. Feels like 64° at kickoff.
Akron at Central Michigan · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant
- 64°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 9 kickoff times
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 9 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's nine kickoff times. At Kelly/Shorts Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm or 8 pm kickoff would have scored 94, against 100 at 3:30 pm.
- 11 am: 100, Ideal
- noon: 100, Ideal
- 12:45 pm: 100, Ideal
- 2 pm: 100, Ideal
- 3:30 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
- 4:15 pm: 98, Comfortable
- 6 pm: 95, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
- 8 pm: 94, Comfortable
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Central Michigan is worth +7.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 96th percentile.
56% at home, 27% on the road against FBS opponents (22-17 home, 13-36 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.7 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 240 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Central Michigan7th0-0
- Akron8th0-0