Eastern Michigan beats Akron 25-23

Team pages: Eastern Michigan · Akron

Eastern Michigan4-325
Akron1-523Final
Sat, Oct 10 · InfoCision Stadium, Akron, Ohio · Crowd 9,038ESPN+

Eastern Michigan beat Akron 25-23.

We had Eastern Michigan favored. It won.

Next: Eastern Michigan lost to Toledo 34-14, Sat Oct 17

Next: Akron lost to Miami (OH) 34-14, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Kim 1-yd TD run, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 10-7 (Q2, 12:07). Eastern Michigan went from 49% to 65% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Eastern Michigan a 55% chance, and the closing betting line (Eastern Michigan was a 4.5-point favorite) put it at 64%.

Down to 31% in the third quarter, Eastern Michigan came back to win.

Up to 69% in the third quarter, then Akron lost it.

FinalEastern Michigan 25-23 AkronEastern Michigan wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q445% at halfEastern MichiganAkronLowest 31%Won25-2312+16−13Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q445% at halfAkronLowest 31%Won25-2312Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q455% at halfAkronEastern MichiganHigh 69%Lost23-2512−16+14Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q455% at halfAkronHigh 69%Lost23-2512Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 12:074th and 1Kim 1-yd TD run, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 10-7Eastern Michigan 49% → 65% (+16)
  2. 2Q4 11:40Roggow 24-yd pass to BurrisEastern Michigan 74% → 61% (−13)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 12:074th and 1Kim 1-yd TD run, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 10-7Akron 51% → 35% (−16)
  2. 2Q4 11:40Roggow 24-yd pass to BurrisAkron 26% → 40% (+14)
Eastern Michigan’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Eastern Michigan -4.5), at 57% for Eastern Michigan (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Eastern Michigan scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Akron on 4 of its 11.

Eastern Michigan’s drives are teal, Akron’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Eastern Michigan: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 5Field goalAkron: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Michigan: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Akron: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Michigan: Field goal, from 92 yards out to 4Field goalAkron: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67PuntEastern Michigan: Interception, from 78 yards out to 74InterceptionAkron: Punt, from 41 yards out to 40PuntEastern Michigan: Punt, from 90 yards out to 58PuntAkron: End of half, from 98 yards out to 98End of halfQ3Akron: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 22Field goalEastern Michigan: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 45FumbleAkron: Punt, from 55 yards out to 62PuntEastern Michigan: Field goal, from 22 yards out to 15Field goalAkron: Punt, from 83 yards out to 84PuntEastern Michigan: Touchdown, from 59 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Akron: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntEastern Michigan: Punt, from 66 yards out to 52PuntAkron: Touchdown, from 92 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Michigan: Field goal, from 73 yards out to 31Field goalAkron: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 29Missed FGEastern Michigan: End of game, from 71 yards out to 72End of game

From Akron’s side

Akron’s best moment: Roggow 24-yd pass to Burris (Q4 11:40). It lifted Akron’s win chance by 13 points.

6 lead changes. Too close to call on 75% of plays.

What it cost

Eastern Michigan’s chance to win the conference rose from 9% to 13%.

Win the conference

Eastern Michigan · won9% → ▲13%9%▲ 13%
Akron · lost1% → ▼0%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Eastern Michigan 25, Akron 23

Akron covered +4.5 by 2.5. The total, 48, stayed under 51.5.

Eastern MichiganAkronTotal yardsEastern Michigan 413Akron 372413372Passing yardsEastern Michigan 277Akron 229277229Rushing yardsEastern Michigan 136Akron 143136143First downsEastern Michigan 25Akron 192519TurnoversEastern Michigan 2Akron 020Time of possessionEastern Michigan 35:35Akron 24:2535:3524:25
Team totalsEastern MichiganAkron
Total yards413372
Passing26 of 46, 277 yds17 of 24, 229 yds
Rushing33 for 136 yds34 for 143 yds
First downs2519
Third down8 of 185 of 12
Fourth down1 of 10 of 0
Turnovers20
Penalties7 for 65 yds9 for 82 yds
Time of possession35:3524:25

Eastern Michigan leaders

  • Passing Noah Kim 26 of 46, 277 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Joey Mattord 18 for 73 yds; Braydon Bennett 9 for 50 yds
  • Receiving Joshua Long 9 for 114 yds; Ben Prosper 4 for 50 yds

Akron leaders

  • Passing Brayden Roggow 17 of 24, 229 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Jordan Gant 22 for 117 yds; Sean Patrick 6 for 26 yds
  • Receiving Marcel Williams 5 for 89 yds, 2 TD; Miles Burris 3 for 42 yds

No rain and calm

67° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 15

October game-day temperatures at InfoCision Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Akron favoredEastern Michigan favored0%Win chanceAkronRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Akron favoredEastern Michigan favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:38 left6:46 p.m.
Eastern Michigan 25, Akron 23 · Akron 24% to win
no rain · wind 2 mph from the southeast · 64°
Roggow 8-yd pass to Williams

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Akron airport, 3.2 miles away, and Akron / Canton airport, 11 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Eastern Michigan · 3-3

Rated 92nd in our preseason ratings, 127th now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 24-point win over Massachusetts as a 5.5-point underdog.

W 38-14 @ Massachusetts #141 of 668

won by 24 as a 5.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan won 38-14 at Massachusetts. Chance to win started at 24%, low 24%, high better than 99%.

W 29-3 vs Lindenwood #202 of 668

won by 26 as a 24.5-point favorite

Eastern Michigan won 29-3 vs Lindenwood. Chance to win started at 96%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

L 10-54 @ Wisconsin #81 of 668

lost by 44 as a 23.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan lost 10-54 at Wisconsin. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 17%.

Last three games

Akron · 1-4

Rated 58th in our preseason ratings, 116th now.

Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.

L 17-41 @ Central Michigan #119 of 668

lost by 24 as a 6.5-point underdog

Akron lost 17-41 at Central Michigan. Chance to win started at 22%, low under 1%, high 53%.

L 10-38 vs UNLV #97 of 668

lost by 28 as a 13.5-point underdog

Akron lost 10-38 vs UNLV. Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 43%.

L 7-41 @ Minnesota #45 of 668

lost by 34 as a 22.5-point underdog

Akron lost 7-41 at Minnesota. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 4%.

W 45-10 vs Robert Morris #172 of 668

won by 35 as a 26.5-point favorite

Akron won 45-10 vs Robert Morris. Chance to win started at 97%, low 95%, high better than 99%.

L 16-38 @ Wake ForestTop 25 #79 of 668

lost by 22 as a 27.5-point underdog

Akron lost 16-38 at Wake Forest. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 4%.

Week by week

Akron

Wk 1: L 16-38 at Wake Forest▼22Wake For…Wk 2: W 45-10 vs Robert Morris▲35Robert M…Wk 3: L 7-41 at Minnesota▼34MinnesotaWk 4: L 10-38 vs UNLV▼28UNLVWk 5: L 17-41 at Central Michigan▼24C. Michi…
  • Wk 1Lat Wake Forest16-38
  • Wk 2Wvs Robert Morris45-10
  • Wk 3Lat Minnesota7-41
  • Wk 4Lvs UNLV10-38
  • Wk 5Lat Central Michigan17-41

Eastern Michigan

Wk 1: L 21-27 vs San José State▼6S. José…Wk 2: L 7-35 at Michigan State▼28Michigan…Wk 3: L 10-54 at Wisconsin▼44WisconsinWk 4: W 29-3 vs Lindenwood▲26Lindenwo…Wk 5: W 38-14 at Massachusetts▲24Massachu…
  • Wk 1Lvs San José State21-27
  • Wk 2Lat Michigan State7-35
  • Wk 3Lat Wisconsin10-54
  • Wk 4Wvs Lindenwood29-3
  • Wk 5Wat Massachusetts38-14

Power rating by week

Akron is rated 0.9 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

3-2-7Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5AkronEastern Michigan

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Akron’s explosive plays against Eastern Michigan, 48 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Akron’s explosive plays against Eastern Michigan’s defense

    48 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Akron offense, 12th percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 60th

  2. Akron’s success rate against Eastern Michigan’s defense

    16 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Akron offense, 39th percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 23rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Eastern MichiganAkron
EPA/play, offense
Eastern Michigan · 21Akron · 28
EPA/play, defense
Eastern Michigan · 21Akron · 10
Success rate, offense
Eastern Michigan · 19Akron · 39
Success rate, defense
Eastern Michigan · 23Akron · 20
Explosive-play rate, offense
Eastern Michigan · 26Akron · 12
Explosive-play rate, defense
Eastern Michigan · 60Akron · 14
Rush EPA, offense
Eastern Michigan · 24Akron · 56
Rush EPA, defense
Eastern Michigan · 58Akron · 17
Pass EPA, offense
Eastern Michigan · 29Akron · 24
Pass EPA, defense
Eastern Michigan…Akron · 19

The series

Akron leads the series 18-14

32 meetings since 1976 · Akron won the last meeting

Akron wonEastern Michigan won1976: Akron by 361977: Eastern Michigan by 141978: Eastern Michigan by 111979: Akron by 121980: Akron by 111981: Akron by 71982: Akron by 71983: Akron by 131985: Akron by 41986: Eastern Michigan by 31987: Akron by 11992: Akron by 181993: Akron by 121994: Eastern Michigan by 241995: Eastern Michigan by 201996: Eastern Michigan by 31997: Eastern Michigan by 451998: Akron by 31999: Eastern Michigan by 212001: Akron by 32002: Eastern Michigan by 82003: Akron by 72008: Akron by 72009: Akron by 72011: Eastern Michigan by 82014: Akron by 252015: Akron by 262018: Eastern Michigan by 202019: Eastern Michigan by 282022: Eastern Michigan by 62023: Eastern Michigan by 32024: Akron by 419762024
  • 2024Akron 25-21Akron won 25-21 vs Eastern Michigan. Chance to win started at 38%, low 19%, high better than 99%.
  • 2023Eastern Michigan 30-27
  • 2022Eastern Michigan 34-28Akron lost 28-34 vs Eastern Michigan. Chance to win started at 32%, low 2%, high 42%.
  • 2019Eastern Michigan 42-14Akron lost 14-42 vs Eastern Michigan. Chance to win started at 18%, low under 1%, high 22%.
  • 2018Eastern Michigan 27-7Akron lost 7-27 at Eastern Michigan. Chance to win started at 28%, low under 1%, high 37%.

Each line is Akron’s chance to win through that meeting. Akron is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Akron fans are in a better mood than Eastern Michigan fans (58th vs 5th among FBS fanbases), even with Eastern Michigan favored.

  • Model · 45%
  • Line · 36%
  • Akron fans · 58th
  • Eastern Michigan fans · 5th

Eastern Michigan favored by 4.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Eastern Michigan by 4.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward Akron.

opened +7now +4.5

Spread: +7 → +4.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Akron is worth +3.4 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 34th percentile.

19% at home, 13% on the road against FBS opponents (7-30 home, 7-46 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.2 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 137 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Mid-American standings