Eastern Michigan beats Massachusetts 38-14
Team pages: Eastern Michigan · Massachusetts
Eastern Michigan beat Massachusetts 38-14. Share this game
We had Massachusetts favored. Eastern Michigan won.
How it swung
The turning point: Kim 27-yd TD pass to Isaac, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 7-0 (Q1, 5:38). Eastern Michigan went from 37% to 52% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Eastern Michigan a 21% chance, and the closing betting line (Eastern Michigan was a 5.5-point underdog) put it at 33%.
Eastern Michigan won by 24, after dipping to 24% in the first quarter.
Up to 76% in the first quarter, then Massachusetts lost it.
Eastern Michigan 38-14 Massachusetts
Eastern Michigan wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Massachusetts 14-38 Eastern MichiganMassachusetts lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 5:38Kim 27-yd TD pass to Isaac, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 7-0Eastern Michigan 37% → 52% (+15)
- 2Q3 10:10Kim 2-yd TD pass to Long, Eastern Michigan leads 21-7Eastern Michigan 74% → 87% (+13)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 5:38Kim 27-yd TD pass to Isaac, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 7-0Massachusetts 63% → 48% (−15)
- 2Q3 10:10Kim 2-yd TD pass to Long, Eastern Michigan leads 21-7Massachusetts 26% → 13% (−13)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Massachusetts -5.5), at 24% for Eastern Michigan (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Eastern Michigan scored on 6 of its 9 drives; Massachusetts on 2 of its 8.
Eastern Michigan’s drives are teal, Massachusetts’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Massachusetts’s side
Massachusetts’s best moment: Watson 34-yd TD pass to Dowling, cuts it to 14-7 (Q2 0:28). It lifted Massachusetts’s win chance by 13 points.
What it cost
Massachusetts’s chance to win the conference fell from 8% to 4%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Eastern Michigan 38, Massachusetts 14
Eastern Michigan covered +5.5 by 29.5. The total, 52, went over 49.5.
| Team totals | Eastern Michigan | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 411 | 316 |
| Passing | 21 of 30, 219 yds | 20 of 27, 210 yds |
| Rushing | 39 for 192 yds | 25 for 106 yds |
| First downs | 26 | 18 |
| Third down | 11 of 14 | 6 of 10 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Penalties | 6 for 70 yds | 6 for 59 yds |
| Time of possession | 34:35 | 25:25 |
Eastern Michigan leaders
- Passing Noah Kim 21 of 30, 219 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Amareon Blue 11 for 66 yds, 1 TD; Joey Mattord 8 for 54 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Harold Mack 3 for 49 yds; Santonyo Isaac 3 for 41 yds, 1 TD
Massachusetts leaders
- Passing William Watson III 20 of 27, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Curtis Kimmons IV 14 for 73 yds, 1 TD; Elijah Faulkner 5 for 19 yds
- Receiving Jabari Lewis 6 for 102 yds; Max Dowling 3 for 48 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
72° at kickoff · no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Chicopee/westover airport, 13 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Eastern Michigan · 2-3
Rated 92nd in our preseason ratings, 147th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last 4 games
Massachusetts · 4-0
Rated 258th in our preseason ratings, 135th now, up 123 spots.
4 straight wins, including a 16-point win over Rutgers as a 29.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Massachusetts
- Wk 1Wat Rutgers37-21
- Wk 2Wvs Sacred Heart37-10
- Wk 3Wvs Stonehill36-14
- Wk 4Wat Sacramento State35-6
Eastern Michigan
- Wk 1Wvs Sacramento State28-17
- Wk 1Lvs San José State21-27
- Wk 2Lat Michigan State7-35
- Wk 3Lat Wisconsin10-54
- Wk 4Wvs Lindenwood29-3
Power rating by week
Massachusetts is rated 1.0 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Eastern Michigan’s explosive plays against Massachusetts, 58 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Eastern Michigan’s explosive plays against Massachusetts’s defense
Eastern Michigan offense, 26th percentile · Massachusetts defense, 84th
Eastern Michigan’s EPA/play against Massachusetts’s defense
Eastern Michigan offense, 21st percentile · Massachusetts defense, 72nd
Massachusetts’s passing EPA against Eastern Michigan’s defense
Massachusetts offense, 62nd percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 14th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Eastern Michigan leads the series 4-2
6 meetings since 2014 · Eastern Michigan has won the last 4
- 2024Eastern Michigan 28-14
- 2023Eastern Michigan 19-17
- 2022Eastern Michigan 20-13
- 2021Eastern Michigan 42-28
- 2015Massachusetts 28-17
Each line is Massachusetts’s chance to win through that meeting. Massachusetts is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Eastern Michigan fans are in a better mood than Massachusetts fans (95th vs 83rd among FBS fanbases), even with Massachusetts favored.
- Model · 79%
- Line · 67%
- Massachusetts fans · 83rd
- Eastern Michigan fans · 95th
Massachusetts favored by 5.5 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
Massachusetts by 5.5, on the usual path until Q2 10:21
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Massachusetts.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −2.5 → −5.5 · Total: 48.5 → 49.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Mild and dry. Feels like 67° at kickoff.
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium, Hadley
- 67°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 9 kickoff times
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 9 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's nine kickoff times. At Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium that day, a 6 pm, 7:30 pm or 8 pm kickoff would have scored 95, against 100 at 3:30 pm.
- 11 am: 100, Ideal
- noon: 100, Ideal
- 12:45 pm: 99, Comfortable
- 2 pm: 98, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
- 4:15 pm: 97, Comfortable
- 6 pm: 95, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
- 8 pm: 95, Comfortable
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Massachusetts is worth +4.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 60th percentile.
12% at home, 10% on the road against FBS opponents (4-30 home, 5-45 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.0 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 567 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Massachusetts4th1-0
- Eastern Michigan5th1-0