Stonehill at Massachusetts
Massachusetts (2‑0) hosts Stonehill (1‑2). Too early for a market line, but the model likes Massachusetts (77%).
How they got here
Last three games
Stonehill · 1-2
Picked #243 in the preseason · now #240 — about right.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 18-point win over New Haven as a 6.5-point underdog.
L 35–42 @ New Hampshire #202 of 669
lost by 7 as a 13.5-point underdog
W 21–3 @ New Haven #260 of 669
won by 18 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 6–24 vs Bryant #200 of 669
lost by 18 as a 4-point underdog
Last two games
Massachusetts · 2-0
Picked #258 in the preseason · now #208 — better than expected.
Two straight wins, capped by a 16-point win over Rutgers as a 29.5-point underdog.
W 37–10 vs Sacred Heart #215 of 669
won by 27 as a 23.5-point favorite
W 37–21 @ Rutgers #74 of 669
won by 16 as a 29.5-point underdog
What’s at stake
Stonehill
- Stonehill needs 5 more wins in the final 8 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Stonehill is the Skyhawks in their first year of FCS eligibility — overachieving in the Northeast Conference and proving the D-II powerhouse belongs at the FCS level.
Massachusetts
- Joe Harasymiak is ahead of Shane Montgomery’s year-2 pace (2-0 vs. 0-2) — a win tonight widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Stonehill
The chip · vs the national mediaPlenty of skeptics thought Stonehill would get buried in the NEC. Instead, the Skyhawks are 4-8 (3-4 in conference) in year one, overachieving against predictions and proving they belong.
What this game touches
The eligibility wait — finally arriving. After building a strong D-II program, Stonehill had to wait for FCS eligibility. Now that the 2025 season is here, every win and loss in the NEC matters in ways it never could in D-II. The program is proving the wait was worth it with a 4-8 record in year one.
Massachusetts
The chip · vs the national mediaOutsiders ask why UMass is even at this level — and the fanbase answers that running football at a flagship has always meant explaining itself to people who'd rather it disappear, and showing up anyway.
What this game touches
The winless return. UMass went 0-12 in 2025, Joe Harasymiak's first year and the program's first full season back in the MAC after the long independent stretch — a hard floor for a roster rebuilding from the ground up, played in the program's signature small-stadium intimacy at McGuirk.
Best players
Massachusetts
- Khari Bendolph (LB) · 14 tackles
- Timmy Hinspeter (LB) · 13 tackles
- Kendall Bournes (S) · 13 tackles
Conditions
67°F · 2 mph wind
Massachusetts is worth +5.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 69th percentile.
12% at home, 8% on the road against FBS opponents (4–28 home, 4–44 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.1 at home vs. away over 73 games — inside the ±7.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 76 miles to get here.
Recent games
Massachusetts
- Wk 1Wat Rutgers37-21
- Wk 2Wvs Sacred Heart37-10
Stonehill
- Wk 1Lvs Bryant6-24
- Wk 1Wat New Haven21-3
- Wk 2Lat New Hampshire35-42