Miami (OH) beats Massachusetts 20-19

Team pages: Miami (OH) · Massachusetts

Miami (OH)3-320
Massachusetts4-219Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium, Hadley, Mass. · Crowd 13,887ESPN+

Miami (OH) beat Massachusetts 20-19.

We had Miami (OH) favored. It won.

Next: Miami (OH) beat Akron 34-14, Sat Oct 17

Next: Massachusetts lost to Buffalo 25-18, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: 41-yd punt (Q2, 9:04). Miami (OH) went from 79% to 63% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Miami (OH) a 51% chance, and the closing betting line (Miami (OH) was a 6-point favorite) put it at 69%.

A tight one: Miami (OH) bottomed out at 38% and won.

Massachusetts never had better than a 62% chance.

FinalMiami (OH) 20-19 MassachusettsMiami (OH) wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q475% at halfMiami (OH)Won20-1912−16−14Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q475% at halfMiami (OH)Won20-1912Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q425% at halfMiami (OH)Lost19-2012+16+14Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q425% at halfMiami (OH)Lost19-2012Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 9:0441-yd puntMiami (OH) 79% → 63% (−16)
  2. 2Q2 2:2037-yd puntMiami (OH) 78% → 64% (−14)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 9:0441-yd puntMassachusetts 21% → 37% (+16)
  2. 2Q2 2:2037-yd puntMassachusetts 22% → 36% (+14)
Miami (OH)’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Miami (OH) -6), at 58% for Miami (OH) (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Miami (OH) scored on 4 of its 13 drives; Massachusetts on 4 of its 12.

Miami (OH)’s drives are teal, Massachusetts’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Massachusetts: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntMiami (OH): Punt, from 68 yards out to 68PuntMassachusetts: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownMiami (OH): Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownMassachusetts: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 66DownsMiami (OH): Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownMassachusetts: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 38Field goalQ2Miami (OH): Punt, from 75 yards out to 52PuntMassachusetts: Punt, from 89 yards out to 61PuntMiami (OH): Punt, from 89 yards out to 37PuntMassachusetts: Punt, from 80 yards out to 66PuntMiami (OH): End of half, from 82 yards out to 83End of halfQ3Miami (OH): Punt, from 75 yards out to 63PuntMassachusetts: Punt, from 83 yards out to 86PuntMiami (OH): Punt, from 61 yards out to 41PuntMassachusetts: Punt, from 92 yards out to 94PuntMiami (OH): Punt, from 48 yards out to 46PuntMassachusetts: Fumble, from 88 yards out to 79FumbleMiami (OH): Field goal, from 21 yards out to 9Field goalMassachusetts: Punt, from 80 yards out to 78PuntQ4Miami (OH): Field goal, from 51 yards out to 28Field goalMassachusetts: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 16Field goalMiami (OH): Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntMassachusetts: Touchdown, from 91 yards out to 0TouchdownMiami (OH): End of game, from 0 yards out to 0End of game

From Massachusetts’s side

Massachusetts’s best moment: 41-yd punt (Q2 9:04). It lifted Massachusetts’s win chance by 16 points.

What it cost

Miami (OH)’s chance to win the conference rose from 4% to 5%.

Win the conference

Miami (OH) · won4% → ▲5%4%▲ 5%
Massachusetts · lost2% → ▼1%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Miami (OH) 20, Massachusetts 19

Massachusetts covered +6 by 5. The total, 39, stayed under 44.5.

Miami (OH)MassachusettsTotal yardsMiami (OH) 260Massachusetts 319260319Passing yardsMiami (OH) 95Massachusetts 25495254Rushing yardsMiami (OH) 165Massachusetts 6516565First downsMiami (OH) 15Massachusetts 171517TurnoversMiami (OH) 0Massachusetts 101Time of possessionMiami (OH) 29:18Massachusetts 30:4229:1830:42
Team totalsMiami (OH)Massachusetts
Total yards260319
Passing6 of 21, 95 yds21 of 35, 254 yds
Rushing36 for 165 yds30 for 65 yds
First downs1517
Third down3 of 134 of 15
Fourth down1 of 12 of 3
Turnovers01
Penalties8 for 64 yds8 for 54 yds
Time of possession29:1830:42

Miami (OH) leaders

  • Passing Caleb Heavner 6 of 20, 95 yds
  • Rushing Caleb Heavner 11 for 54 yds, 1 TD; Rodney Nelson 11 for 52 yds
  • Receiving Maleek Huggins 3 for 47 yds; Scoop Smith 1 for 33 yds

Massachusetts leaders

  • Passing Aedan McCarthy 15 of 29, 171 yds
  • Rushing Curtis Kimmons IV 6 for 35 yds, 1 TD; Elijah Faulkner 8 for 31 yds
  • Receiving Ty Harding 9 for 91 yds; Jabari Lewis 5 for 89 yds

No rain through the game

64° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Massachusetts favoredMiami (OH) favored0%Win chanceMassachusettsRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Massachusetts favoredMiami (OH) favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 9:04 left3:03 p.m.
Miami (OH) 14, Massachusetts 10 · Massachusetts 37% to win
no rain · 64°
41-yd punt

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Chicopee/westover airport, 13 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Miami (OH) · 2-3

Rated 78th in our preseason ratings, 101st now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 20-24 vs Bowling Green #153 of 668

lost by 4 as a 10.5-point favorite

Miami (OH) lost 20-24 vs Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 84%, low under 1%, high 86%.

W 24-21 vs UConn #103 of 668

won by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

Miami (OH) won 24-21 vs UConn. Chance to win started at 58%, low 13%, high 92%.

L 31-35 @ Cincinnati #101 of 668

lost by 4 as a 14.5-point underdog

Miami (OH) lost 31-35 at Cincinnati. Chance to win started at 29%, low 1%, high 97%.

W 45-7 vs Holy Cross #228 of 668

won by 38 as a 30.5-point favorite

Miami (OH) won 45-7 vs Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 98%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

L 14-59 @ PittsburghTop 25 #45 of 668

lost by 45 as a 16.5-point underdog

Miami (OH) lost 14-59 at Pittsburgh. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 12%.

Last three games

Massachusetts · 4-1

Rated 258th in our preseason ratings, 141st now, up 117 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 14-38 vs Eastern Michigan #127 of 668

lost by 24 as a 5.5-point favorite

Massachusetts lost 14-38 vs Eastern Michigan. Chance to win started at 76%, low under 1%, high 76%.

W 35-6 @ Sacramento State #177 of 668

won by 29 as a 6-point favorite

Massachusetts won 35-6 at Sacramento State. Chance to win started at 63%, low 63%, high better than 99%.

W 36-14 vs Stonehill #233 of 668

won by 22 as a 30.5-point favorite

Massachusetts won 36-14 vs Stonehill. Chance to win started at 98%, low 95%, high better than 99%.

W 37-10 vs Sacred Heart #212 of 668

won by 27 as a 23.5-point favorite

Massachusetts won 37-10 vs Sacred Heart. Chance to win started at 95%, low 95%, high better than 99%.

W 37-21 @ Rutgers #75 of 668

won by 16 as a 29.5-point underdog

Massachusetts won 37-21 at Rutgers. Chance to win started at 2%, low 1%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Massachusetts

Wk 1: W 37-21 at Rutgers▲16RutgersWk 2: W 37-10 vs Sacred Heart▲27Sacred H…Wk 3: W 36-14 vs Stonehill▲22StonehillWk 4: W 35-6 at Sacramento State▲29Sacramen…Wk 5: L 14-38 vs Eastern Michigan▼24E. Michi…
  • Wk 1Wat Rutgers37-21
  • Wk 2Wvs Sacred Heart37-10
  • Wk 3Wvs Stonehill36-14
  • Wk 4Wat Sacramento State35-6
  • Wk 5Lvs Eastern Michigan14-38

Miami (OH)

Wk 1: L 14-59 at Pittsburgh▼45Pittsbur…Wk 2: W 45-7 vs Holy Cross▲38Holy Cro…Wk 3: L 31-35 at Cincinnati▼4Cincinna…Wk 4: W 24-21 vs UConn▲3UConnWk 5: L 20-24 vs Bowling Green▼4Bowling…
  • Wk 1Lat Pittsburgh14-59
  • Wk 2Wvs Holy Cross45-7
  • Wk 3Lat Cincinnati31-35
  • Wk 4Wvs UConn24-21
  • Wk 5Lvs Bowling Green20-24

Power rating by week

Miami (OH) is rated 2.9 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

1-7-14Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5MassachusettsMiami (OH)

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Massachusetts’s passing EPA against Miami (OH), 37 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Massachusetts’s passing EPA against Miami (OH)’s defense

    37 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Massachusetts offense, 62nd percentile · Miami (OH) defense, 25th

  2. Miami (OH)’s success rate against Massachusetts’s defense

    32 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Miami (OH) offense, 32nd percentile · Massachusetts defense, 64th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Miami (OH)Massachusetts
EPA/play, offense
Miami (OH) · 58Massachusetts · 57
EPA/play, defense
Miami (OH) · 41Massachusetts · 72
Success rate, offense
Miami (OH) · 32Massachusetts · 52
Success rate, defense
Miami (OH) · 34Massachusetts · 64
Explosive-play rate, offense
Miami (OH) · 94Massachusetts · 39
Explosive-play rate, defense
Miami (OH) · 29Massachusetts · 84
Rush EPA, offense
Miami (OH) · 66Massachusetts · 51
Rush EPA, defense
Miami (OH) · 74Massachusetts · 79
Pass EPA, offense
Miami (OH) · 68Massachusetts · 62
Pass EPA, defense
Miami (OH) · 25Massachusetts · 70

The series

Miami (OH) leads the series 5-1

6 meetings since 2012 · Miami (OH) has won the last 4

Massachusetts wonMiami (OH) won2012: Miami (OH) by 112013: Massachusetts by 72014: Miami (OH) by 12015: Miami (OH) by 72023: Miami (OH) by 132024: Miami (OH) by 320122024
  • 2024Miami (OH) 23-20
  • 2023Miami (OH) 41-28Massachusetts lost 28-41 vs Miami (OH). Chance to win started at 27%, low 1%, high 27%.
  • 2015Miami (OH) 20-13
  • 2014Miami (OH) 42-41
  • 2013Massachusetts 17-10

Each line is Massachusetts’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Massachusetts fans are in a better mood than Miami (OH) fans (78th vs 47th among FBS fanbases), even with Miami (OH) favored.

  • Model · 49%
  • Line · 31%
  • Massachusetts fans · 78th
  • Miami (OH) fans · 47th

Miami (OH) favored by 6 · Total 44.5

How games like this usually go

Miami (OH) by 6, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3.5 points toward Miami (OH).

opened +2.5now +6

The total fell 2 points.

opened 46.5now 44.5

Spread: +2.5 → +6 · Total: 46.5 → 44.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Massachusetts is worth +4.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 60th percentile.

12% at home, 10% on the road against FBS opponents (4-30 home, 5-45 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.0 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 666 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Mid-American standings