Buffalo beats Massachusetts 25-18 in overtime
Team pages: Massachusetts · Buffalo
Buffalo beat Massachusetts 25-18 in overtime. Share this game
We had Buffalo favored. It won.
Next: Massachusetts at UConn, Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET · Massachusetts underdog by 14.5
Next: Buffalo vs Bowling Green, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Buffalo favored by 3.5
How it swung
The turning point: Hautanen 29-yd field goal, ties it 18-18 (Q4, 0:02). Buffalo went from 40% to 70% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Buffalo a 56% chance, and the closing betting line (Buffalo was a 6.5-point favorite) put it at 70%.
Down to 30% in the fourth quarter, Buffalo came back to win.
Up to 70% in the fourth quarter, then Massachusetts lost it.
Buffalo · Q2 9:06Buffalo 25-18 Massachusetts
Buffalo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Massachusetts 18-25 BuffaloMassachusetts lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 1:32Faulkner 2-yd TD run, Massachusetts goes ahead 15-8Buffalo 68% → 43% (−25)
- 2Q4 0:02Hautanen 29-yd field goal, ties it 18-18Buffalo 40% → 70% (+30)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 1:32Faulkner 2-yd TD run, Massachusetts goes ahead 15-8Massachusetts 32% → 57% (+25)
- 2Q4 0:02Hautanen 29-yd field goal, ties it 18-18Massachusetts 60% → 30% (−30)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Buffalo -6.5), at 74% for Buffalo (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Buffalo scored on 5 of its 14 drives; Massachusetts on 3 of its 13.
Buffalo’s drives are teal, Massachusetts’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Massachusetts’s side
Massachusetts’s best moment: Faulkner 2-yd TD run, Massachusetts goes ahead 15-8 (Q2 1:32). It lifted Massachusetts’s win chance by 25 points.
Too close to call on 58% of plays.
What it cost
Massachusetts’s chance to win the conference fell from 1% to 0%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Massachusetts plays at UConn on Fri Oct 23 with a 0% chance to win the conference. Buffalo plays vs Bowling Green on Sat Oct 24 with a 2% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Buffalo 25, Massachusetts 18
Buffalo covered −6.5 by 0.5. The total, 43, stayed under 43.5.
| Team totals | Massachusetts | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 339 | 351 |
| Passing | 14 of 25, 168 yds | 16 of 35, 134 yds |
| Rushing | 47 for 171 yds | 44 for 217 yds |
| First downs | 17 | 19 |
| Third down | 5 of 15 | 8 of 19 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Penalties | 8 for 57 yds | 4 for 32 yds |
| Time of possession | 31:30 | 28:30 |
Massachusetts leaders
- Passing Logan Inagawa 14 of 25, 168 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Elijah Faulkner 23 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Logan Inagawa 19 for 66 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Kezion Dia-Johnson 5 for 79 yds; Jabari Lewis 3 for 33 yds
Buffalo leaders
- Passing Jason Wright 16 of 35, 134 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Messiah Burch 28 for 172 yds; Nino Hill 6 for 22 yds
- Receiving Clint Walker 7 for 45 yds, 2 TD; Dwayne Early Jr. 3 for 33 yds
No rain and calm
44° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 9 mph from the northwest, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 17
The usual here around this date is 56°, with about 7 in 10 games between 46° and 68°.
October game-day temperatures at UB Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Buffalo International Airport, 4.5 miles away, and Niagara Falls International airport, 11 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Massachusetts · 4-2
Rated 258th in our preseason ratings, 144th now, up 114 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Buffalo · 3-3
Rated 134th in our preseason ratings, 134th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 15-point win over Toledo as an 18.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Buffalo
- Wk 2Lat Florida International20-33
- Wk 3Lat Penn State13-55
- Wk 4Wvs Robert Morris31-28
- Wk 5Lvs Western Michigan17-20
- Wk 6Wat Toledo23-8
Massachusetts
- Wk 2Wvs Sacred Heart37-10
- Wk 3Wvs Stonehill36-14
- Wk 4Wat Sacramento State35-6
- Wk 5Lvs Eastern Michigan14-38
- Wk 6Lvs Miami (OH)19-20
Power rating by week
Buffalo is rated 0.5 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Buffalo’s passing EPA against Massachusetts, 60 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Buffalo’s EPA/play against Massachusetts’s defense
Buffalo offense, 14th percentile · Massachusetts defense, 72nd
Buffalo’s passing EPA against Massachusetts’s defense
Buffalo offense, 10th percentile · Massachusetts defense, 70th
Buffalo’s explosive plays against Massachusetts’s defense
Buffalo offense, 33rd percentile · Massachusetts defense, 84th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Buffalo leads the series 10-2
12 meetings since 1964 · Buffalo has won the last 3
- 2025Buffalo 28-21
- 2024Buffalo 34-3
- 2022Buffalo 34-7
- 2015Massachusetts 31-26
- 2014Buffalo 41-21
Each line is Buffalo’s chance to win through that meeting. Buffalo is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Massachusetts fans are in a better mood than Buffalo fans (90th vs 14th among FBS fanbases), even with Buffalo favored.
- Model · 56%
- Line · 70%
- Buffalo fans · 14th
- Massachusetts fans · 90th
Buffalo favored by 6.5 · Total 43.5
How games like this usually go
Buffalo by 6.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Buffalo.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: −3.5 → −6.5 · Total: 47.5 → 43.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Buffalo is worth +4.0 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 49th percentile.
55% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (22-18 home, 23-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.1 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 320 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Buffalo 28, Massachusetts 21Oct 18, 2025
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Buffalo5th1-1
- Massachusetts10th1-2