Buffalo beats UAlbany 21-17
Buffalo beat UAlbany 21-17. Share this game
We had Buffalo favored. It won.
Next: UAlbany beat Long Island University 35-13, Sat Sep 12
Next: Buffalo lost to Florida International 33-20, Sat Sep 12
How it swung
The turning point: K.Colón pass complete short middle to T.Groves for 14 yards to the end zone touchdown (Q1, 3:02). Buffalo went from 88% to 73% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Buffalo a 72% chance, and the closing betting line (Buffalo was a 18.5-point favorite) put it at 93%.
Favored the whole way: Buffalo never fell below 53%.
UAlbany never had better than a 47% chance.
Buffalo 21-17 UAlbany
Buffalo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.UAlbany 17-21 BuffaloUAlbany lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:02K.Colón pass complete short middle to T.Groves for 14 yards to the end zone touchdownBuffalo 88% → 73% (−15)
- 2Q4 6:43PenaltySpecial teams45-yd punt, Greer returns it 8, holding on UAlbanyBuffalo 55% → 70% (+15)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:02K.Colón pass complete short middle to T.Groves for 14 yards to the end zone touchdownUAlbany 12% → 27% (+15)
- 2Q4 6:43PenaltySpecial teams45-yd punt, Greer returns it 8, holding on UAlbanyUAlbany 45% → 30% (−15)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Buffalo -18.5), at 90% for Buffalo (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Buffalo scored on 3 of its 15 drives; UAlbany on 3 of its 14.
Buffalo’s drives are teal, UAlbany’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From UAlbany’s side
UAlbany’s best moment: K.Colón pass complete short middle to T.Groves for 14 yards to the end zone touchdown (Q1 3:02). It lifted UAlbany’s win chance by 15 points.
“This announcer has lost track of who has how many points.”
How fans reacted
Box score
Buffalo 21, UAlbany 17
UAlbany covered +18.5 by 14.5. The total, 38, stayed under 47.5.
UAlbany leaders
- Passing Kai Coln 16 of 36, 191 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Joey Koch 8 for 40 yds; Rahshan La Mons 11 for 32 yds
- Receiving BJ Norman 6 for 67 yds; Jordan Rae 2 for 35 yds
Buffalo leaders
- Passing Elijah Holmes 26 of 47, 189 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Messiah Burch 8 for 74 yds; Terrance Shelton Jr. 14 for 46 yds
- Receiving Chance Morrow 7 for 48 yds, 3 TD; Clint Walker 5 for 41 yds
Kickoff came 2 hours 43 minutes late
72° at kickoff · no rain during play; another 0.9 in fell before the late kickoff · wind 3 mph from the north-northeast, gusts to 8
Thunder was reported at Buffalo International Airport (4.5 miles away) from 6:46 p.m. to 8:38 p.m., around the delay.
September game-day temperatures at UB Stadium
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Buffalo International Airport, 4.5 miles away, and Niagara Falls International airport, 11 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
UAlbany · 2-10
Rated 222nd in our preseason ratings, 222nd now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Monmouth as a 29.5-point underdog.
W 31-24 @ Monmouth #127 of 667
won by 7 as a 29.5-point underdog
L 19-36 vs Towson #183 of 667
lost by 17 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 24-27 vs Bryant #240 of 667
lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 7-37 @ William & Mary #175 of 667
lost by 30 as a 19-point underdog
L 16-29 @ Villanova #125 of 667
lost by 13 as a 31.5-point underdog
L 17-58 vs Rhode Island #124 of 667
lost by 41 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 12-47 vs Stony Brook #151 of 667
lost by 35 as a 7-point underdog
L 6-24 @ New Hampshire #156 of 667
lost by 18 as a 13-point underdog
W 13-10 vs Cornell #240 of 667
won by 3 as a 3-point underdog
L 17-24 vs New Haven #264 of 667
lost by 7 as a 19.5-point favorite
L 32-37 @ Delaware State #245 of 667
lost by 5 as a 12.5-point favorite
L 7-34 @ IowaTop 25 #46 of 667
lost by 27 as a 39.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Buffalo · 5-7
Rated 134th in our preseason ratings.
L 26-31 vs Ohio #76 of 667
lost by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 20-37 vs Miami (OH) #88 of 667
lost by 17 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 19-38 @ Central Michigan #93 of 667
lost by 19 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 28-3 @ Bowling Green #164 of 667
won by 25 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 16-24 vs Akron #162 of 667
lost by 8 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 28-21 @ Massachusetts #230 of 667
won by 7 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 31-30 vs Eastern Michigan #175 of 667
won by 1 as a 9.5-point favorite
L 17-20 vs UConn #75 of 667
lost by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 17-21 vs Troy #82 of 667
lost by 4 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 31-28 @ Kent State #225 of 667
won by 3 as a 24.5-point favorite
W 45-6 vs Saint Francis #224 of 667
won by 39 as a 37.5-point favorite
L 10-23 @ Minnesota #24 of 667
lost by 13 as a 16.5-point underdog
The series
The series is tied 1-1
2 meetings since 2015 · UAlbany won the last meeting
- 2016UAlbany 22-16
- 2015Buffalo 51-14
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Buffalo’s chances here.
Buffalo favored by 18.5 · Total 47.5
How games like this usually go
Buffalo by 18.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 6 points toward UAlbany.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −24.5 → −18.5 · Total: 48.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Buffalo is worth +4.0 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 49th percentile.
55% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (22-18 home, 23-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.1 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 252 miles to get here.