Buffalo upsets Toledo 23-8
Buffalo beat Toledo 23-8 as an 18.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 8%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 8% or less in about 1 of every 14 games since 2018.
We had Toledo favored. Buffalo won.
How it swung
The turning point: Burch 87-yd TD run, Buffalo leads 23-8 (Q4, 4:30). Buffalo went from 76% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Buffalo an 8% chance, and the closing betting line (Buffalo was a 18.5-point underdog) put it at 7%.
Buffalo · Q4 4:30Buffalo 23-8 Toledo
Buffalo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Toledo 8-23 BuffaloToledo lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 9:52Hautanen 31-yd field goal, Buffalo leads 16-0Buffalo 60% → 78% (+18)
- 2Q4 4:30Burch 87-yd TD run, Buffalo leads 23-8Buffalo 76% → 100% (+24)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 9:52Hautanen 31-yd field goal, Buffalo leads 16-0Toledo 40% → 22% (−18)
- 2Q4 4:30Burch 87-yd TD run, Buffalo leads 23-8Toledo 24% → 0% (−24)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Toledo -18.5), at 8% for Buffalo (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Buffalo scored on 5 of its 13 drives; Toledo on 1 of its 11.
Buffalo’s drives are teal, Toledo’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Toledo’s side
Toledo’s best moment: Walendzak 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 16-8 (Q4 4:45). It lifted Toledo’s win chance by 12 points.
The winner fell to 8%.
What it cost
Toledo’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Buffalo 23, Toledo 8
Buffalo covered +18.5 by 33.5. The total, 31, stayed under 54.5.
| Team totals | Buffalo | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 351 | 308 |
| Passing | 14 of 31, 171 yds | 22 of 35, 203 yds |
| Rushing | 47 for 180 yds | 26 for 105 yds |
| First downs | 22 | 16 |
| Third down | 8 of 21 | 3 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 3 |
| Penalties | 5 for 27 yds | 15 for 137 yds |
| Time of possession | 35:25 | 24:35 |
Buffalo leaders
- Passing Jason Wright 14 of 31, 171 yds
- Rushing Messiah Burch 17 for 137 yds, 1 TD; Nino Hill 12 for 24 yds
- Receiving Dwayne Early Jr. 4 for 77 yds; Jaylen Andrews 2 for 28 yds
Toledo leaders
- Passing John Alan Richter 22 of 35, 203 yds
- Rushing Connor Walendzak 10 for 50 yds, 1 TD; CJ Miller 9 for 32 yds
- Receiving Terrell Crosby Jr. 8 for 69 yds; Sam Lee 4 for 39 yds
No rain through the game
72° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 61°, with about 7 in 10 games between 50° and 75°.
October game-day temperatures at Glass Bowl
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Lambertville airport, 5.8 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Buffalo · 2-3
Rated 134th in our preseason ratings, 160th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Toledo · 4-1
Rated 48th in our preseason ratings, 42nd now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Week by week
Toledo
- Wk 1Lat Michigan State20-30
- Wk 2Wvs Central Connecticut63-10
- Wk 3Wvs Temple49-48
- Wk 4Wvs San Diego State41-16
- Wk 5Wat Ball State39-24
Buffalo
- Wk 1Wvs UAlbany21-17
- Wk 2Lat Florida International20-33
- Wk 3Lat Penn State13-55
- Wk 4Wvs Robert Morris31-28
- Wk 5Lvs Western Michigan17-20
Power rating by week
Toledo is rated 9.8 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Buffalo’s success rate against Toledo, 92 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Buffalo’s success rate against Toledo’s defense
Buffalo offense, 5th percentile · Toledo defense, 97th
Toledo’s explosive plays against Buffalo’s defense
Toledo offense, 99th percentile · Buffalo defense, 38th
Buffalo’s rushing EPA against Toledo’s defense
Buffalo offense, 27th percentile · Toledo defense, 91st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Toledo leads the series 6-5
11 meetings since 1970 · Buffalo won the last meeting
- 2024Buffalo 30-15
- 2023Toledo 31-13
- 2022Buffalo 34-27
- 2019Buffalo 49-30
- 2018Buffalo 31-17
Each line is Toledo’s chance to win through that meeting. Toledo is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Buffalo fans are in a better mood than Toledo fans (85th vs 25th among FBS fanbases), even with Toledo favored.
Toledo favored by 18.5 · Total 54.5
How games like this usually go
Toledo by 18.5, on the usual path until Q2 9:51
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Buffalo.
Spread: −20.5 → −18.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Toledo is worth +5.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 78th percentile.
74% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (31-11 home, 23-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.9 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 264 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.