Toledo beats Eastern Michigan 34-14

Team pages: Toledo · Eastern Michigan

Toledo5-234
Eastern Michigan4-414Final
Sat, Oct 17 · Rynearson Stadium, Ypsilanti, Mich. · Crowd 10,373ESPN+

Toledo beat Eastern Michigan 34-14.

We had Toledo favored. It won.

Next: Toledo vs Western Michigan, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Toledo favored by 3

Next: Eastern Michigan at Ohio, Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 PM ET · Eastern Michigan underdog by 12.5

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Toledo a 71% chance, and the closing betting line (Toledo was a 7.5-point favorite) put it at 73%.

Favored the whole way: Toledo never fell below 52%.

Eastern Michigan never had better than a 48% chance.

FinalToledo 34-14 Eastern MichiganToledo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4ToledoWon34-141+14Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4ToledoWon34-141Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4ToledoLowest 0%Lost14-341−14Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4ToledoLowest 0%Lost14-341Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 7:50Richter 28-yd TD pass to Dabbs, Toledo goes ahead 7-0Toledo 69% → 83% (+14)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 7:50Richter 28-yd TD pass to Dabbs, Toledo goes ahead 7-0Eastern Michigan 31% → 17% (−14)
Toledo’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Toledo -7.5), at 62% for Toledo (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Toledo scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Eastern Michigan on 2 of its 12.

Toledo’s drives are teal, Eastern Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Eastern Michigan: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 35DownsToledo: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Michigan: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 85FumbleToledo: Field goal, from 15 yards out to 13Field goalEastern Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntToledo: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Eastern Michigan: Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntToledo: Touchdown, from 90 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Michigan: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 24DownsToledo: End of half, from 76 yards out to 78End of halfQ3Toledo: Punt, from 75 yards out to 50PuntToledo: Field goal, from 13 yards out to 12Field goalEastern Michigan: Punt, from 79 yards out to 65PuntToledo: Punt, from 83 yards out to 75PuntEastern Michigan: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownToledo: Punt, from 75 yards out to 44PuntEastern Michigan: Punt, from 99 yards out to 70PuntQ4Toledo: Fumble, from 66 yards out to 52FumbleEastern Michigan: Turned over on downs, from 30 yards out to 22DownsToledo: Punt, from 78 yards out to 70PuntEastern Michigan: Turned over on downs, from 68 yards out to 47DownsToledo: Turned over on downs, from 53 yards out to 1DownsEastern Michigan: End of game, from 99 yards out to 77End of game

From Eastern Michigan’s side

Eastern Michigan’s best moment: Kim 15-yd pass to Long (Q1 13:02). It lifted Eastern Michigan’s win chance by 10 points.

What it cost

Toledo’s chance to win the conference rose from 10% to 15%.

Win the conference

Toledo · won10% → ▲15%10%▲ 15%
Eastern Michigan · lost13% → ▼8%13%▼ 8%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Toledo plays vs Western Michigan on Sat Oct 24 with a 15% chance to win the conference. Eastern Michigan plays at Ohio on Sat Oct 24 with an 8% chance to win the conference.

Box score

Toledo 34, Eastern Michigan 14

Toledo covered −7.5 by 12.5. The total, 48, stayed under 51.5.

ToledoEastern MichiganTotal yardsToledo 480Eastern Michigan 276480276Passing yardsToledo 288Eastern Michigan 242288242Rushing yardsToledo 192Eastern Michigan 3419234First downsToledo 21Eastern Michigan 212121TurnoversToledo 1Eastern Michigan 212Time of possessionToledo 33:35Eastern Michigan 26:2533:3526:25
Team totalsToledoEastern Michigan
Total yards480276
Passing24 of 30, 288 yds20 of 43, 242 yds
Rushing40 for 192 yds28 for 34 yds
First downs2121
Third down5 of 135 of 15
Fourth down1 of 20 of 4
Turnovers12
Penalties14 for 118 yds4 for 30 yds
Time of possession33:3526:25

Toledo leaders

  • Passing John Alan Richter 24 of 30, 288 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Autavius Ison 18 for 104 yds, 1 TD; CJ Miller 13 for 48 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Bryson Hammer 5 for 69 yds; Adjatay Dabbs 5 for 66 yds, 1 TD

Eastern Michigan leaders

  • Passing Noah Kim 16 of 36, 214 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Amareon Blue 7 for 23 yds; Brogan McCaughey 3 for 19 yds
  • Receiving Joshua Long 7 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Ben Prosper 2 for 39 yds

No rain through the game

no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Rynearson Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Eastern Michigan favoredToledo favored0%Win chanceEastern MichiganRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Eastern Michigan favoredToledo favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:49 left3:33 p.m.
Toledo 0, Eastern Michigan 0 · Eastern Michigan 38% to win
no rain
Kim 5-yd pass to Mack
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Ann Arbor airport, 5.2 miles away, and Detroit/willow airport, 6.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Toledo · 4-2

Rated 48th in our preseason ratings, 51st now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 8-23 vs Buffalo #134 of 668

lost by 15 as an 18.5-point favorite

Toledo lost 8-23 vs Buffalo. Chance to win started at 92%, low under 1%, high 92%.

W 39-24 @ Ball State #164 of 668

won by 15 as a 20.5-point favorite

Toledo won 39-24 at Ball State. Chance to win started at 87%, low 56%, high better than 99%.

W 41-16 vs San Diego State #68 of 668

won by 25 as a 2.5-point favorite

Toledo won 41-16 vs San Diego State. Chance to win started at 63%, low 51%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Eastern Michigan · 4-3

Rated 92nd in our preseason ratings, 120th now.

Three straight wins, including a 24-point win over Massachusetts as a 5.5-point underdog.

W 25-23 @ Akron #121 of 668

won by 2 as a 4.5-point favorite

Eastern Michigan won 25-23 at Akron. Chance to win started at 57%, low 31%, high 87%.

W 38-14 @ Massachusetts #141 of 668

won by 24 as a 5.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan won 38-14 at Massachusetts. Chance to win started at 24%, low 24%, high better than 99%.

W 29-3 vs Lindenwood #202 of 668

won by 26 as a 24.5-point favorite

Eastern Michigan won 29-3 vs Lindenwood. Chance to win started at 96%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Eastern Michigan

Wk 2: L 7-35 at Michigan State▼28Michigan…Wk 3: L 10-54 at Wisconsin▼44WisconsinWk 4: W 29-3 vs Lindenwood▲26Lindenwo…Wk 5: W 38-14 at Massachusetts▲24Massachu…Wk 6: W 25-23 at Akron▲2Akron
  • Wk 2Lat Michigan State7-35
  • Wk 3Lat Wisconsin10-54
  • Wk 4Wvs Lindenwood29-3
  • Wk 5Wat Massachusetts38-14
  • Wk 6Wat Akron25-23

Toledo

Wk 2: W 63-10 vs Central Connecticut▲53C. Conne…Wk 3: W 49-48 vs Temple▲1TempleWk 4: W 41-16 vs San Diego State▲25S. Diego…Wk 5: W 39-24 at Ball State▲15Ball St.Wk 6: L 8-23 vs Buffalo▼15Buffalo
  • Wk 2Wvs Central Connecticut63-10
  • Wk 3Wvs Temple49-48
  • Wk 4Wvs San Diego State41-16
  • Wk 5Wat Ball State39-24
  • Wk 6Lvs Buffalo8-23

Power rating by week

Toledo is rated 6.3 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

6-1-7Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Eastern MichiganToledo

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Eastern Michigan’s success rate against Toledo, 78 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Eastern Michigan’s success rate against Toledo’s defense

    78 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Eastern Michigan offense, 19th percentile · Toledo defense, 97th

  2. Toledo’s passing EPA against Eastern Michigan’s defense

    73 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Toledo offense, 87th percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 14th

  3. Toledo’s explosive plays against Eastern Michigan’s defense

    39 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Toledo offense, 99th percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 60th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

ToledoEastern Michigan
EPA/play, offense
Toledo · 79Eastern Michigan · 21
EPA/play, defense
Toledo · 84Eastern Michigan · 21
Success rate, offense
Toledo · 44Eastern Michigan · 19
Success rate, defense
Toledo · 97Eastern Michigan · 23
Explosive-play rate, offense
Toledo · 99Eastern Michigan · 26
Explosive-play rate, defense
Toledo · 16Eastern Michigan · 60
Rush EPA, offense
Toledo · 47Eastern Michigan · 24
Rush EPA, defense
Toledo · 91Eastern Michigan · 58
Pass EPA, offense
Toledo · 87Eastern Michigan · 29
Pass EPA, defense
Toledo · 51Eastern Michigan…

The series

Toledo leads the series 37-13

50 meetings since 1972 · Toledo has won the last 3

Eastern Michigan wonToledo won1972: Toledo by 161974: Eastern Michigan by 161977: Eastern Michigan by 101978: Eastern Michigan by 51979: Toledo by 301980: Toledo by 421981: Toledo by 351982: Toledo by 11983: Toledo by 281984: Toledo by 101985: Eastern Michigan by 111986: Toledo by 51987: Eastern Michigan by 291988: Eastern Michigan by 11989: Eastern Michigan by 171990: Toledo by 141991: Toledo by 71992: Toledo by 411993: Toledo by 141994: Eastern Michigan by 31995: Toledo by 61996: Toledo by 171997: Toledo by 31998: Eastern Michigan by 31999: Eastern Michigan by 72000: Toledo by 282001: Toledo by 212002: Toledo by 522003: Toledo by 352004: Toledo by 102005: Toledo by 272006: Eastern Michigan by 42007: Toledo by 242008: Toledo by 242009: Toledo by 262010: Toledo by 352011: Toledo by 382012: Toledo by 52013: Toledo by 392014: Toledo by 362015: Toledo by 432016: Toledo by 152017: Toledo by 52018: Eastern Michigan by 22019: Toledo by 32020: Toledo by 172021: Eastern Michigan by 32022: Toledo by 32023: Toledo by 262024: Toledo by 119722024
  • 2024Toledo 29-28Eastern Michigan lost 28-29 vs Toledo. Chance to win started at 18%, low under 1%, high 73%.
  • 2023Toledo 49-23Eastern Michigan lost 23-49 at Toledo. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 12%.
  • 2022Toledo 27-24Eastern Michigan lost 24-27 vs Toledo. Chance to win started at 42%, low under 1%, high 64%.
  • 2021Eastern Michigan 52-49Eastern Michigan won 52-49 at Toledo. Chance to win started at 20%, low 9%, high better than 99%.
  • 2020Toledo 45-28Eastern Michigan lost 28-45 vs Toledo. Chance to win started at 34%, low under 1%, high 36%.

Each line is Eastern Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting. Eastern Michigan is 1-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Toledo fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (96th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 29% · Line 27%Eastern Michigan fans · 5thToledo fans · 96thToledoEastern Michigan

Toledo favored by 7.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Toledo by 7.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Toledo.

opened +6.5now +7.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 52.5now 51.5

Spread: +6.5 → +7.5 · Total: 52.5 → 51.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Eastern Michigan has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.1 points (±3.4), home against road — 1st percentile of FBS.

49% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (20-21 home, 22-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.4 at home vs. away over 99 games — outside the ±5.4 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 41 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Mid-American standings