Western Michigan at Toledo
Toledo (5‑2) hosts Western Michigan (5‑2). The market has Toledo favored by 3. Western Michigan’s offense is at the 49th percentile on success rate; Toledo’s defense is at the 97th.
How they got here
Last three games
Western Michigan · 5-2
Rated 24th in our preseason ratings, 43rd now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last three games
Toledo · 5-2
Rated 48th in our preseason ratings, 47th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Western Michigan’s success rate against Toledo, 48 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Western Michigan’s success rate against Toledo’s defense
Western Michigan offense, 49th percentile · Toledo defense, 97th
Toledo’s passing EPA against Western Michigan’s defense
Toledo offense, 87th percentile · Western Michigan defense, 55th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of October 23, 2026
The series
Toledo leads the series 39-24
63 meetings since 1962 · Western Michigan won the last meeting
- 2025Western Michigan 14-13
- 2023Toledo 49-31
- 2022Western Michigan 20-14
- 2021Toledo 34-15
- 2020Western Michigan 41-38
Each line is Toledo’s chance to win through that meeting. Toledo is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Western Michigan
The chip · vs the national mediaBronco fans are sick of being a punchline about a coach who left and a rowing slogan he took with him. They say a program picked seventh and crowned champion proved Kalamazoo can win on its own terms — and that nobody's laughing now.
What this game touches
The nine years chasing 2016. P.J. Fleck went 13-1 and reached the Cotton Bowl in 2016, then left for Minnesota and took 'Row the Boat' with him — and Western Michigan spent the next nine seasons as a good MAC program that never quite got back to the top, the breakthrough always one game short.
Toledo
The chip · vs the national mediaFans know the drill — the national conversation treats the MAC as a place big jobs go shopping for coaches, and Toledo as the supplier rather than the contender. They want the new staff to prove the Rockets are a destination worth respecting, not just a launchpad.
Best players
Western Michigan
- Justyce Betts (LB) · 52 tackles
- Domanick Moon (LB) · 43 tackles
- Dillon Moore (LB) · 43 tackles
Toledo
- Julian Fox (LB) · 56 tackles
- Armorion Smith (S) · 55 tackles
- Isaac Zay (LB) · 54 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: John Alan Richter (QB) — Toledo’s leading passer (1,853 passing yards) takes on Western Michigan’s pass defense (55th percentile allowed).
The total has moved up 3.0 points since opening (44.5 → 47.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Toledo fans are in a better mood than Western Michigan fans (96th vs 61st among FBS fanbases), even with Western Michigan favored.
- Model · 49%
- Line · 60%
- Toledo fans · 96th
- Western Michigan fans · 61st
Toledo favored by 3 · Total 47.5
Toledo by 3: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Toledo’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Mild. No coat needed.
Western Michigan at Toledo · Saturday, Oct. 24 · noon ET · CBS Sports Network · Glass Bowl.
- 62°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 5 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Glass Bowl: noon Saturdays score 90, 3:30 pm 88, 7:30 pm 88.
- noon: 90, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 88, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Toledo is worth +5.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 77th percentile.
74% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (31-11 home, 23-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.9 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 111 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Toledo
- Wk 3Wvs Temple49-48
- Wk 4Wvs San Diego State41-16
- Wk 5Wat Ball State39-24
- Wk 6Lvs Buffalo8-23
- Wk 7Wat Eastern Michigan34-14
Western Michigan
- Wk 3Wat Rice28-21
- Wk 4Lvs Boise State7-32
- Wk 5Wat Buffalo20-17
- Wk 6Wvs Kent State38-7
- Wk 7Wat Central Michigan21-14
Power rating by week
Western Michigan is rated 0.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Toledo.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: −1.5 → −3 · Total: 44.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Toledo6th2-1
- Western Michigan1st3-0
Last meeting in our History pages
- Western Michigan 41, Toledo 38Nov 11, 2020