Regular season ·

Western Michigan beat Toledo

Toledo1-138
Western Michigan2-041Final
Wed, Nov 11 · Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, Mich. · Crowd 839 · 34°, clearESPN

Records are after this game.

Western Michigan had a 4 percent chance to win with 2:45 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 41-38, November 11, 2020.

How the game turned

Western Michigan aheadToledo aheadBiggest swing
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Q4 0:45 Western Michigan 34, Toledo 38

Western Michigan 48% to win

Eleby 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 38-34

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 9:18 · Western Michigan 0, Toledo 7Western Michigan's win chance fell from 45% to 35%.Peters 9-yd TD pass to Maddox, Toledo goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q1 2:54 · Western Michigan 7, Toledo 14Western Michigan's win chance fell from 50% to 37%.Seymour 2-yd TD run, Toledo goes ahead 14-7
  3. 3Q2 6:44 · Western Michigan 14, Toledo 17Davis 34-yd field goal, Toledo goes ahead 17-14
  4. 4Q4 0:45 · Western Michigan 34, Toledo 38Western Michigan's win chance rose from 16% to 48%.Eleby 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 38-34
  5. 5Q4 0:17 · Western Michigan 41, Toledo 38Western Michigan's win chance rose from 53% to 67%.Eleby 9-yd TD pass to Hall, Western Michigan goes ahead 41-38

Western Michigan's lowest chance to win was 4 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:45 left in the 4th quarter, Western Michigan's chance to win went from 16 percent to 48 percent when Western Michigan scored a touchdown.

The score went from Western Michigan 28, Toledo 38 to Western Michigan 34, Toledo 38.

The play: Eleby 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 38-34.

It was Western Michigan's first win over Toledo since the 2016 season, after 3 straight losses in the series, counted since 1970 in our games data.

What happened next

  1. Western Michigan's next game: W 52-44 at Central Michigan, Nov 18

    7 days later

  2. Toledo's next game: W 45-28 at Eastern Michigan, Nov 18

    7 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Nov 11, 2020: Toledo 34, Western Michigan 15, Oct 23, 2021

    about 11 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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