Eastern Michigan at Ohio
Ohio (5‑2) hosts Eastern Michigan (4‑4). The market has Ohio favored by 11.5. The model gives Ohio a 66% shot. Ohio’s offense is at the 11th percentile on explosive plays; Eastern Michigan’s defense is at the 60th.
How they got here
Last three games
Eastern Michigan · 4-4
Rated 92nd in our preseason ratings, 143rd now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 24-point win over Massachusetts as a 5.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Ohio · 5-2
Rated 50th in our preseason ratings, 55th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 29-27 vs Jacksonville State #63 of 668
won by 2 as a 1.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: Ohio’s explosive plays against Eastern Michigan, 49 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Ohio’s explosive plays against Eastern Michigan’s defense
Ohio offense, 11th percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 60th
Ohio’s EPA/play against Eastern Michigan’s defense
Ohio offense, 68th percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 21st
Eastern Michigan’s rushing EPA against Ohio’s defense
Eastern Michigan offense, 24th percentile · Ohio defense, 68th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of October 23, 2026
The series
Ohio leads the series 22-12-1
35 meetings since 1976 · Ohio has won the last 4
- 2025Ohio 28-21
- 2024Ohio 35-10
- 2021Ohio 34-26
- 2017Ohio 27-20
- 2016Eastern Michigan 27-20
Each line is Ohio’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Eastern Michigan
The chip · vs the national mediaEastern Michigan gets talked about as one of the toughest jobs in college football, a program that can't break through -- while quietly producing a two-time Super Bowl champion and a $106.5 million NFL star. Fans believe the individual talent proves the program is better than its team record suggests.
What this game touches
Never once reaching the MAC Championship Game. Eastern Michigan is the only MAC member never to reach the conference championship game since it began in 1997. Combined with no conference title since 1987, it's the clearest on-field frustration in the program's modern history -- made sharper by how far its best individual players have gone in the NFL.
Ohio
The chipAthens doesn't carry a grudge so much as a quiet pride: the Bobcats keep getting their coaches stolen by bigger programs, and they keep reloading and winning bowls. The fanbase has stopped apologizing for being good in a league nobody watches.
What this game touches
The program that can't keep a coach. Tim Albin won Ohio its first MAC title since 1968 in 2024, then immediately left for Charlotte. His successor Brian Smith went 8-4 but was fired for cause in December 2025 amid a misconduct investigation. Defensive coordinator John Hauser, the third head coach in three seasons, won the Frisco Bowl on his first night running the team.
Best players
Eastern Michigan
- Zach Mowchan (LB) · 58 tackles
- Bryce Llewellyn (DB) · 42 tackles
- Noah Kim (QB) · 1,678 passing yards
Ohio
- Michael Molnar (LB) · 53 tackles
- Jack Fries (LB) · 38 tackles
- Riley Neer (WR) · 440 receiving yards
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Eastern Michigan: Noah Kim (1,678 passing yards).
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward Ohio since opening (−9.5 → −11.5).
The betting line, and the fans
Ohio fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (56th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 66%
- Line · 82%
- Ohio fans · 56th
- Eastern Michigan fans · 5th
Ohio favored by 11.5 · Total 48.5
Ohio by 11.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Ohio’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 387 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Mild. No coat needed.
Eastern Michigan at Ohio · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 4 pm ET · ESPNU · Peden Stadium.
- 65°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 6 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Peden Stadium: noon Saturdays score 91, 3:30 pm 89, 7:30 pm 88.
- noon: 91, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 89, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Ohio is worth +5.2 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 67th percentile.
77% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (30-9 home, 22-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.8 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 218 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Ohio
- Wk 3Lat South Alabama36-41
- Wk 4Wvs Stonehill35-7
- Wk 5Wat Kent State13-10
- Wk 6Wvs Central Michigan31-14
- Wk 7Wat Sacramento State48-7
Eastern Michigan
- Wk 3Lat Wisconsin10-54
- Wk 4Wvs Lindenwood29-3
- Wk 5Wat Massachusetts38-14
- Wk 6Wat Akron25-23
- Wk 7Lvs Toledo14-34
Power rating by week
Ohio is rated 8.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Ohio.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −9.5 → −11.5 · Total: 49.5 → 48.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Ohio2nd3-0
- Eastern Michigan3rd3-1
Last meeting in our History pages
- Ohio 27, Eastern Michigan 20Sep 23, 2017