Ohio beats Kent State 13-10

Team pages: Ohio · Kent State

Ohio3-213
Kent State2-310Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Dix Stadium, Kent, Ohio · Crowd 13,022ESPN+

Ohio beat Kent State 13-10.

We had Ohio favored. It won.

Next: Ohio beat Central Michigan 31-14, Sat Oct 10

Next: Kent State lost to Western Michigan 38-7, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Leonard 32-yd field goal no good (Q4, 0:10). Ohio went from 69% to 99% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ohio a 67% chance, and the closing betting line (Ohio was a 3.5-point favorite) put it at 61%.

A tight one: Ohio bottomed out at 41% and won.

Kent State never had better than a 59% chance.

Blocked field goalQ4 10:52
FinalOhio 13-10 Kent StateOhio wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q476% at halfOhioWon13-10ScoresBlocked field goal
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q476% at halfOhioWon13-10ScoresBlocked field goal
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q424% at halfOhioLost10-13ScoresBlocked field goal
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q424% at halfOhioLost10-13ScoresBlocked field goal

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 0:38White 1-yd runOhio 52% → 72% (+20)
  2. 2Q4 0:10Leonard 32-yd field goal no goodOhio 69% → 99% (+30)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 0:38White 1-yd runKent State 48% → 28% (−20)
  2. 2Q4 0:10Leonard 32-yd field goal no goodKent State 31% → 1% (−30)
Ohio’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Ohio -3.5), at 55% for Ohio (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Ohio scored on 3 of its 10 drives; Kent State on 2 of its 9.

Ohio’s drives are teal, Kent State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Ohio: Punt, from 73 yards out to 56PuntKent State: Punt, from 62 yards out to 46PuntOhio: Field goal, from 37 yards out to 23Field goalKent State: Field goal, from 87 yards out to 7Field goalQ2Ohio: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 23FumbleKent State: Interception, from 36 yards out to 47InterceptionOhio: Touchdown, from 46 yards out to 0TouchdownKent State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 47PuntOhio: End of half, from 93 yards out to 82End of halfQ3Kent State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 62InterceptionOhio: Fumble, from 50 yards out to 37FumbleKent State: Touchdown, from 59 yards out to 0TouchdownOhio: Field goal, from 81 yards out to 27Field goalKent State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 32Missed FGQ4Ohio: Punt, from 68 yards out to 53PuntKent State: Punt, from 85 yards out to 88PuntOhio: Turned over on downs, from 58 yards out to 39DownsKent State: Missed field goal, from 61 yards out to 15Missed FGOhio: End of game, from 80 yards out to 82End of game

From Kent State’s side

Kent State’s best moment: White 7-yd run (Q4 1:02). It lifted Kent State’s win chance by 15 points.

Too close to call on 58% of plays.

What it cost

Ohio’s chance to win the conference rose from 11% to 14%.

Win the conference

Ohio · won11% → ▲14%11%▲ 14%
Kent State · lost4% → ▼2%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Ohio 13, Kent State 10

Kent State covered +3.5 by 0.5. The total, 23, stayed under 50.5.

OhioKent StateTotal yardsOhio 253Kent State 266253266Passing yardsOhio 72Kent State 21772217Rushing yardsOhio 181Kent State 4918149First downsOhio 15Kent State 181518TurnoversOhio 2Kent State 222Time of possessionOhio 28:45Kent State 31:1528:4531:15
Team totalsOhioKent State
Total yards253266
Passing8 of 14, 72 yds20 of 35, 217 yds
Rushing40 for 181 yds31 for 49 yds
First downs1518
Third down4 of 105 of 16
Fourth down0 of 12 of 2
Turnovers22
Penalties7 for 70 yds7 for 61 yds
Time of possession28:4531:15

Ohio leaders

  • Passing Matt Vezza 4 of 9, 38 yds
  • Rushing Duncan Brune 18 for 86 yds; Levi Davis 5 for 42 yds
  • Receiving Riley Neer 2 for 21 yds; Jake Furtney 2 for 17 yds

Kent State leaders

  • Passing Dru Deshields 20 of 35, 217 yds, 2 INT
  • Rushing Brandon White 9 for 32 yds; Mason Blakemore 8 for 15 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Da'Realyst Clark 6 for 68 yds; Ardell Banks 2 for 60 yds

No rain through the game

64° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Dix Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Kent State favoredOhio favored0%Win chanceKent StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Kent State favoredOhio favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:10 left6:47 p.m.
Ohio 13, Kent State 10 · Kent State 1% to win
no rain · 54°
Leonard 32-yd field goal no good

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Ravenna airport, 5.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Ohio · 2-2

Rated 50th in our preseason ratings, 60th now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 35-7 vs Stonehill #232 of 668

won by 28 as a 32.5-point favorite

Ohio won 35-7 vs Stonehill. Chance to win started at 99%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

L 36-41 @ South Alabama #65 of 668

lost by 5 as a 7-point underdog

Ohio lost 36-41 at South Alabama. Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 24%.

W 29-27 vs Jacksonville State #63 of 668

won by 2 as a 1.5-point favorite

L 21-49 @ Nebraska #37 of 668

lost by 28 as a 23.5-point underdog

Ohio lost 21-49 at Nebraska. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 18%.

Last 4 games

Kent State · 2-2

Rated 122nd in our preseason ratings, 134th now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 26-13 vs Ball State #164 of 668

won by 13 as a 2.5-point favorite

Kent State won 26-13 vs Ball State. Chance to win started at 67%, low 60%, high better than 99%.

L 3-59 @ Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 668

lost by 56 as a 52.5-point underdog

Kent State lost 3-59 at Ohio State. Never had a real chance.

W 36-15 vs Wofford #195 of 668

won by 21 as a 10-point favorite

Kent State won 36-15 vs Wofford. Chance to win started at 83%, low 51%, high better than 99%.

L 0-57 @ South Carolina #17 of 668

lost by 57 as a 35.5-point underdog

Kent State lost 0-57 at South Carolina. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

Week by week

Kent State

Wk 1: L 0-57 at South Carolina▼57S. CarolinaWk 2: W 36-15 vs Wofford▲21WoffordWk 3: L 3-59 at Ohio State▼56Ohio StateWk 4: W 26-13 vs Ball State▲13Ball State
  • Wk 1Lat South Carolina0-57
  • Wk 2Wvs Wofford36-15
  • Wk 3Lat Ohio State3-59
  • Wk 4Wvs Ball State26-13

Ohio

Wk 1: L 21-49 at Nebraska▼28NebraskaWk 2: W 29-27 vs Jacksonville State▲2Jacksonvill…Wk 3: L 36-41 at South Alabama▼5S. AlabamaWk 4: W 35-7 vs Stonehill▲28Stonehill
  • Wk 1Lat Nebraska21-49
  • Wk 2Wvs Jacksonville State29-27
  • Wk 3Lat South Alabama36-41
  • Wk 4Wvs Stonehill35-7

Power rating by week

Ohio is rated 6.0 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

5-1-6Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Kent StateOhio

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Kent State’s rushing EPA against Ohio, 66 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Ohio’s explosive plays against Kent State’s defense

    58 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ohio offense, 11th percentile · Kent State defense, 69th

  2. Kent State’s rushing EPA against Ohio’s defense

    66 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Kent State offense, 3rd percentile · Ohio defense, 69th

  3. Kent State’s success rate against Ohio’s defense

    60 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Kent State offense, 1st percentile · Ohio defense, 61st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

OhioKent State
EPA/play, offense
Ohio · 68Kent State · 1
EPA/play, defense
Ohio · 47Kent State · 37
Success rate, offense
Ohio · 75Kent State · 1
Success rate, defense
Ohio · 61Kent State · 12
Explosive-play rate, offense
Ohio · 11Kent State · 45
Explosive-play rate, defense
Ohio · 34Kent State · 69
Rush EPA, offense
Ohio · 88Kent State · 3
Rush EPA, defense
Ohio · 69Kent State · 42
Pass EPA, offense
Ohio · 42Kent State · 11
Pass EPA, defense
Ohio · 26Kent State · 33

The series

Ohio leads the series 38-22-2

62 meetings since 1962 · Ohio has won the last 2

Kent State wonOhio won1962: Ohio by 211963: Ohio by 201964: tie1965: Kent State by 171966: Ohio by 21967: Kent State by 71968: Ohio by 241969: Ohio by 351970: Ohio by 101971: Ohio by 161972: Kent State by 231973: Kent State by 281974: Ohio by 201975: Ohio by 21976: Ohio by 21977: Kent State by 211978: Kent State by 61979: Ohio by 301980: Kent State by 11981: Ohio by 131982: Ohio by 41983: Ohio by 11984: Kent State by 121985: Ohio by 101986: Kent State by 41987: Kent State by 141988: Ohio by 71989: Ohio by 231990: Kent State by 291991: Ohio by 51992: Ohio by 131993: Ohio by 51994: Kent State by 241995: tie1996: Ohio by 91997: Ohio by 241998: Ohio by 101999: Ohio by 282000: Ohio by 372001: Kent State by 102002: Ohio by 502003: Kent State by 42004: Kent State by 262005: Ohio by 32006: Ohio by 102007: Kent State by 82008: Ohio by 72009: Kent State by 92010: Kent State by 222011: Ohio by 72012: Kent State by 222013: Kent State by 312014: Ohio by 32015: Ohio by 272016: Ohio by 42017: Ohio by 452018: Ohio by 12019: Ohio by 72021: Kent State by 72022: Kent State by 72023: Ohio by 252024: Ohio by 4119622024
  • 2024Ohio 41-0Kent State lost 0-41 vs Ohio. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 9%.
  • 2023Ohio 42-17Kent State lost 17-42 at Ohio. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 31%.
  • 2022Kent State 31-24
  • 2021Kent State 34-27Kent State won 34-27 at Ohio. Chance to win started at 64%, low 59%, high better than 99%.
  • 2019Ohio 45-38Kent State lost 38-45 at Ohio. Chance to win started at 34%, low 2%, high 66%.

Each line is Kent State’s chance to win through that meeting. Kent State is 0-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Kent State fans are in a better mood than Ohio fans (95th vs 39th among FBS fanbases), even with Ohio favored.

50-50Model 33% · Line 39%Kent State fans · 95thOhio fans · 39thOhioKent State

Ohio favored by 3.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Ohio by 3.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Kent State.

opened +5.5now +3.5

The total fell 2 points.

opened 52.5now 50.5

Spread: +5.5 → +3.5 · Total: 52.5 → 50.5

The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Kent State is worth +10.0 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.

45% at home, 18% on the road against FBS opponents (15-18 home, 10-45 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.1 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 132 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Mid-American standings