Buffalo beats Robert Morris 31-28

Team pages: Robert Morris · Buffalo

Robert Morris2-228
Buffalo2-231Final
Sat, Sep 26 · UB Stadium, Amherst, N.Y. · Crowd 11,449ESPN+

Buffalo beat Robert Morris 31-28.

We had Buffalo favored. It won.

Next: Robert Morris beat Norfolk State 33-31, Sat Oct 3

Next: Buffalo lost to Western Michigan 20-17, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Buffalo a 65% chance, and the closing betting line (Buffalo was a 27.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Favored the whole way: Buffalo never fell below 77%.

Robert Morris never had better than a 22% chance.

21 unansweredBuffalo · Q3 7:52Fumble return TDRobert Morris · Q4 9:24
FinalBuffalo 31-28 Robert MorrisBuffalo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q493% at halfBuffaloWon31-28Scores21 unansweredFumble return TD
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q493% at halfBuffaloWon31-28Scores21 unansweredFumble return TD
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q47% at halfBuffaloLost28-31Scores21 unansweredFumble return TD
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q47% at halfBuffaloLost28-31Scores21 unansweredFumble return TD

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Buffalo’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Buffalo -27.5), at 97% for Buffalo (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Buffalo scored on 5 of its 13 drives; Robert Morris on 3 of its 12.

Buffalo’s drives are teal, Robert Morris’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Robert Morris: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67PuntBuffalo: Interception, from 78 yards out to 74InterceptionRobert Morris: Touchdown, from 33 yards out to 0TouchdownBuffalo: Missed field goal, from 72 yards out to 17Missed FGRobert Morris: Punt, from 80 yards out to 63PuntBuffalo: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Robert Morris: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownBuffalo: Punt, from 60 yards out to 58PuntRobert Morris: Punt, from 87 yards out to 71PuntBuffalo: Interception, from 66 yards out to 27InterceptionRobert Morris: Punt, from 77 yards out to 68PuntBuffalo: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownRobert Morris: End of half, from 75 yards out to 74End of halfQ3Buffalo: Touchdown, from 63 yards out to 0TouchdownRobert Morris: Punt, from 75 yards out to 53PuntBuffalo: Missed field goal, from 80 yards out to 22Missed FGRobert Morris: Turned over on downs, from 78 yards out to 61DownsQ4Buffalo: Touchdown, from 39 yards out to 0TouchdownRobert Morris: Punt, from 65 yards out to 43PuntBuffalo: Fumble Return returned for a touchdown, from 91 yards out to 86Fumble Return TDBuffalo: Field goal, from 60 yards out to 30Field goalRobert Morris: Turned over on downs, from 81 yards out to 36DownsBuffalo: Punt, from 64 yards out to 61PuntRobert Morris: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0TouchdownBuffalo: Turned over on downs, from 51 yards out to 46Downs

Box score

Buffalo 31, Robert Morris 28

Robert Morris covered +27.5 by 24.5. The total, 59, went over 46.5.

Robert MorrisBuffaloTotal yardsRobert Morris 316Buffalo 442316442Passing yardsRobert Morris 163Buffalo 140163140Rushing yardsRobert Morris 153Buffalo 302153302First downsRobert Morris 14Buffalo 271427TurnoversRobert Morris 0Buffalo 303Time of possessionRobert Morris 20:45Buffalo 39:1520:4539:15
Team totalsRobert MorrisBuffalo
Total yards316442
Passing13 of 31, 163 yds15 of 28, 140 yds
Rushing22 for 153 yds63 for 302 yds
First downs1427
Third down5 of 1310 of 19
Fourth down0 of 20 of 1
Turnovers03
Penalties11 for 71 yds6 for 80 yds
Time of possession20:4539:15

Robert Morris leaders

  • Passing Carson Haggard 13 of 31, 163 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Xavier Goulbourne 12 for 77 yds, 1 TD; Carson Haggard 4 for 59 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Tyreke Jinks 2 for 42 yds; Jaqai Carter 3 for 40 yds

Buffalo leaders

  • Passing Jason Wright 15 of 28, 140 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Messiah Burch 26 for 146 yds; Jason Wright 15 for 95 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Chance Morrow 5 for 58 yds, 1 TD; Dwayne Early Jr. 2 for 30 yds

No rain and calm

68° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 9 mph from the north, mostly along the field, gusts to 22

September game-day temperatures at UB Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Buffalo favoredRobert Morris favored100%Win chanceBuffaloRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Buffalo favoredRobert Morris favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:50 left3:33 p.m.
Robert Morris 0, Buffalo 0 · Buffalo 97% to win
no rain · wind 11 mph from the north-northeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 22 · 68°
Haggard incomplete to Evans
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Buffalo International Airport, 4.5 miles away, and Niagara Falls International airport, 11 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Robert Morris · 2-1

Rated 208th in our preseason ratings, 191st now, up 17 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 21-point win over Wagner as a 5.5-point underdog.

L 10-45 @ Akron #61 of 668

lost by 35 as a 26.5-point underdog

Robert Morris lost 10-45 at Akron. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 5%.

W 29-9 vs West Virginia State #343 of 668

W 28-7 @ Wagner #245 of 668

won by 21 as a 5.5-point underdog

Robert Morris won 28-7 at Wagner. Chance to win started at 28%, low 25%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Buffalo · 1-2

Rated 134th in our preseason ratings, 145th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 13-55 @ Penn StateTop 25 #31 of 668

lost by 42 as a 39.5-point underdog

Buffalo lost 13-55 at Penn State. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 20-33 @ Florida International #115 of 668

lost by 13 as an 8.5-point underdog

Buffalo lost 20-33 at Florida International. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 24%.

W 21-17 vs UAlbany #221 of 668

won by 4 as an 18.5-point favorite

Buffalo won 21-17 vs UAlbany. Chance to win started at 90%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Buffalo

Wk 1: W 21-17 vs UAlbany▲4UAlbanyWk 2: L 20-33 at Florida International▼13F. InternationalWk 3: L 13-55 at Penn State▼42Penn State
  • Wk 1Wvs UAlbany21-17
  • Wk 2Lat Florida International20-33
  • Wk 3Lat Penn State13-55

Robert Morris

Wk 1: W 28-7 at Wagner▲21WagnerWk 1: W 29-9 vs West Virginia State▲20W. Virginia St.Wk 2: L 10-45 at Akron▼35Akron
  • Wk 1Wat Wagner28-7
  • Wk 1Wvs West Virginia State29-9
  • Wk 2Lat Akron10-45

Power rating by week

Buffalo is rated 2.8 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-5-7-10Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3BuffaloRobert Morris

The series

Buffalo leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2019 · Buffalo won the last meeting

  • 2019Buffalo 38-10Buffalo won 38-10 vs Robert Morris. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

Each line is Buffalo’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Buffalo’s chances here.

50-50Model · 65%Line · 99%Robert MorrisBuffalo

Buffalo favored by 27.5 · Total 46.5

How games like this usually go

Buffalo by 27.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Robert Morris.

opened −28.5now −27.5

The total rose 2 points.

opened 44.5now 46.5

Spread: −28.5 → −27.5 · Total: 44.5 → 46.5

The books’ cut: 3.6%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 66° at kickoff.

Robert Morris at Buffalo · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · UB Stadium, Amherst

  • 66°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 100weather score, Ideal

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At UB Stadium that day, a noon, 12:45 pm, 2 pm or 7 pm kickoff would have scored 99, against 100 at 3:30 pm.

  • noon: 99, Comfortable
  • 12:45 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 2 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 3:30 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
  • 4 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 5 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 6 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 7 pm: 99, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Buffalo is worth +4.0 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 49th percentile.

55% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (22-18 home, 23-24 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.1 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 187 miles to get here.

Where next