Bowling Green at Buffalo
Buffalo (4‑3) hosts Bowling Green (2‑5). The market has Buffalo favored by 3. The model gives Buffalo a 60% shot. Bowling Green’s offense is at the 16th percentile on success rate; Buffalo’s defense is at the 65th.
How they got here
Last three games
Bowling Green · 2-5
Rated 117th in our preseason ratings, 149th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Miami (OH) as a 10.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Buffalo · 4-3
Rated 134th in our preseason ratings, 126th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 15-point win over Toledo as an 18.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Bowling Green’s success rate against Buffalo, 49 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Bowling Green’s success rate against Buffalo’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 16th percentile · Buffalo defense, 65th
Bowling Green’s rushing EPA against Buffalo’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 8th percentile · Buffalo defense, 50th
Bowling Green’s explosive plays against Buffalo’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 7th percentile · Buffalo defense, 38th
What’s at stake
Bowling Green
- Bowling Green needs 4 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 13% to get there with a win here, 1% with a loss.
- Eddie George is ahead of Scot Loeffler’s year-2 pace (2-5 vs. 0-5) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
Buffalo
- Buffalo needs 3 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 58% to get there with a win here, 22% with a loss.
- Pete Lembo is ahead of Maurice Linguist’s year-3 pace (4-3 vs. 2-5) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
The series
Bowling Green leads the series 13-9
22 meetings since 2000 · Buffalo won the last meeting
- 2025Buffalo 28-3
- 2023Bowling Green 24-14
- 2022Buffalo 38-7
- 2021Bowling Green 56-44
- 2020Buffalo 42-17
Each line is Buffalo’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Bowling Green
The chip · vs the national mediaFalcon fans will remind you that Urban Meyer's whole legend started here, in their building — and they say the pundits who can't place Bowling Green on a map are the same ones who'll act surprised when the place produces the next big name.
What this game touches
The 4-8 reset under a famous new face. Eddie George's debut went 4-8 (2-6 MAC) — a transition year with a transfer-built roster that fell short of a bowl, the kind of rebuild season that tests whether a marquee name can translate to wins in Bowling Green.
Buffalo
The chip · vs the national mediaBuffalo produced a fifth-overall NFL draft pick and an NCAA defensive-record holder in Khalil Mack, yet the program still gets talked about as one of the MAC's anonymous programs. Fans point to Mack's records and the 2024 Bahamas Bowl run as proof the ceiling is higher than the reputation.
What this game touches
Only one MAC title in program history. The 2008 championship under Turner Gill remains the program's only conference crown. Every strong season since -- including the 2024 nine-win Bahamas Bowl breakout -- has ended without a second banner, and 2025 regressed to 5-7 the very next year.
Best players
Bowling Green
- Dorian Pringle (LB) · 67 tackles
- Kal-El Pascal (S) · 51 tackles
- Cashmire Lewis (LB) · 37 tackles
Buffalo
- Saveon Brown (LB) · 59 tackles
- Messiah Burch (RB) · 661 rushing yards
- Miles Greer (S) · 42 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Bowling Green fans are in a better mood than Buffalo fans (77th vs 67th among FBS fanbases), even with Buffalo favored.
Buffalo favored by 3 · Total 44.5
Buffalo by 3: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Buffalo’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at UB Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 89
Bowling Green at Buffalo · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 3:30 pm ET · UB Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at UB Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 86.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 86, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Buffalo is worth +4.0 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 48th percentile.
55% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (22-18 home, 23-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.1 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 272 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Buffalo
- Wk 3Lat Penn State13-55
- Wk 4Wvs Robert Morris31-28
- Wk 5Lvs Western Michigan17-20
- Wk 6Wat Toledo23-8
- Wk 7Wvs Massachusetts25-18
Bowling Green
- Wk 3Lat Iowa State7-55
- Wk 4Lvs South Florida6-14
- Wk 5Wat Miami (OH)24-20
- Wk 6Wvs Sacramento State38-10
- Wk 7Lvs Ball State31-32
Power rating by week
Buffalo is rated 1.7 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Bowling Green.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −4.5 → −3 · Total: 43.5 → 44.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Buffalo4th2-1
- Bowling Green5th2-1