Bowling Green upsets Miami (OH) 24-20
Team pages: Bowling Green · Miami (OH)
Bowling Green beat Miami (OH) 24-20 as a 10.5-point underdog. Share this game
We had Miami (OH) favored. Bowling Green won.
How it swung
The turning point: Kemp 2-yd TD run, Bowling Green goes ahead 24-20 (Q4, 0:08). Bowling Green went from 17% to 83% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Bowling Green a 19% chance, and the closing betting line (Bowling Green was a 10.5-point underdog) put it at 20%.
Bowling Green 24-20 Miami (OH)
Bowling Green wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Miami (OH) 20-24 Bowling GreenMiami (OH) lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The four plays that swung it
- 1Q2 6:57Kastantin 64-yd TD pass to Amachree, Bowling Green goes ahead 7-3Bowling Green 15% → 38% (+23)
- 2Q4 8:50Heavner 10-yd TD pass to Billups-Williams, ties it 17-17Bowling Green 64% → 37% (−27)
- 3Q4 0:08Kemp 2-yd TD run, Bowling Green goes ahead 24-20Bowling Green 17% → 83% (+66)
- 4Q4 0:04Heavner sacked for a 7-yd lossBowling Green 70% → 100% (+30)
The four plays that swung it
- 1Q2 6:57Kastantin 64-yd TD pass to Amachree, Bowling Green goes ahead 7-3Miami (OH) 85% → 62% (−23)
- 2Q4 8:50Heavner 10-yd TD pass to Billups-Williams, ties it 17-17Miami (OH) 36% → 63% (+27)
- 3Q4 0:08Kemp 2-yd TD run, Bowling Green goes ahead 24-20Miami (OH) 83% → 17% (−66)
- 4Q4 0:04Heavner sacked for a 7-yd lossMiami (OH) 30% → 0% (−30)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Miami (OH) -10.5), at 16% for Bowling Green (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Bowling Green scored on 4 of its 9 drives; Miami (OH) on 5 of its 10.
Bowling Green’s drives are teal, Miami (OH)’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Miami (OH)’s side
Miami (OH)’s best moment: Heavner 10-yd TD pass to Billups-Williams, ties it 17-17 (Q4 8:50). It lifted Miami (OH)’s win chance by 27 points.
The winner fell to 10%.
What it cost
Miami (OH)’s chance to win the conference fell from 12% to 7%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20
Bowling Green covered +10.5 by 14.5. The total, 44, went over 41.5.
| Team totals | Bowling Green | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 367 | 306 |
| Passing | 25 of 37, 305 yds | 17 of 24, 198 yds |
| Rushing | 23 for 62 yds | 35 for 108 yds |
| First downs | 22 | 20 |
| Third down | 6 of 12 | 3 of 11 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | 6 for 64 yds | 12 for 103 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:18 | 32:42 |
Bowling Green leaders
- Passing Jay Kastantin 25 of 37, 305 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Leo Kemp 3 for 25 yds, 1 TD; Jay Kastantin 5 for 13 yds
- Receiving Brennan Ridley 9 for 95 yds; Nakai Amachree 3 for 71 yds, 1 TD
Miami (OH) leaders
- Passing Caleb Heavner 17 of 24, 198 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Rodney Nelson 16 for 70 yds; Caleb Heavner 15 for 24 yds
- Receiving Lynel Billups-Williams 4 for 75 yds, 1 TD; Damarion Witten 5 for 59 yds
No rain through the game
68° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 69°, with about 7 in 10 games between 57° and 80°.
Game-day temperatures at Yager Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Oxford airport, 3.0 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Bowling Green · 0-4
Rated 117th in our preseason ratings, 154th now.
4 straight losses.
Last 4 games
Miami (OH) · 2-2
Rated 78th in our preseason ratings, 85th now.
2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Miami (OH)
- Wk 1Lat Pittsburgh14-59
- Wk 2Wvs Holy Cross45-7
- Wk 3Lat Cincinnati31-35
- Wk 4Wvs UConn24-21
Bowling Green
- Wk 1Lvs Tarleton State13-20
- Wk 2Lat Nebraska7-56
- Wk 3Lat Iowa State7-55
- Wk 4Lvs South Florida6-14
Power rating by week
Miami (OH) is rated 5.3 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Bowling Green’s rushing EPA against Miami (OH), 67 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Bowling Green’s rushing EPA against Miami (OH)’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 7th percentile · Miami (OH) defense, 74th
Miami (OH)’s explosive plays against Bowling Green’s defense
Miami (OH) offense, 94th percentile · Bowling Green defense, 55th
Miami (OH)’s EPA/play against Bowling Green’s defense
Miami (OH) offense, 58th percentile · Bowling Green defense, 20th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Miami (OH) leads the series 34-21-4
59 meetings since 1962 · Miami (OH) has won the last 2
- 2024Miami (OH) 28-12
- 2023Miami (OH) 27-0
- 2022Bowling Green 17-13
- 2021Miami (OH) 34-7
- 2019Miami (OH) 44-3
Each line is Miami (OH)’s chance to win through that meeting. Miami (OH) is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Miami (OH) fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (81st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Miami (OH) favored by 10.5 · Total 41.5
How games like this usually go
Miami (OH) by 10.5, on the usual path until 0:22 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 5 points toward Bowling Green.
The total fell 9 points.
Spread: −15.5 → −10.5 · Total: 50.5 → 41.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Mild and dry. Feels like 67° at kickoff.
Bowling Green at Miami (OH) · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Yager Stadium, Oxford
- 67°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 9 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Yager Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm or 8 pm kickoff would have scored 99, against 100 at 3:30 pm.
- 11 am: 100, Ideal
- noon: 100, Ideal
- 12:45 pm: 100, Ideal
- 2 pm: 100, Ideal
- 3:30 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
- 4:15 pm: 100, Ideal
- 6 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7:30 pm: 99, Comfortable
- 8 pm: 99, Comfortable
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Miami (OH) is worth +6.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 85th percentile.
73% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (27-10 home, 23-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±5.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 141 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Bowling Green 37, Miami (OH) 29Oct 7, 2017
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Miami (OH)10th0-0
- Bowling Green6th0-0