Iowa State routs Bowling Green 55-7
Team pages: Bowling Green · Iowa State
Iowa State routed Bowling Green 55-7. Share this game
We had Iowa State favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
My brother in Christ, if 83 new players, brand new coaching staff, and 0 returning starters is not a rebuild season what the hell is it "So called" lol
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Iowa State a 68% chance, and the closing betting line (Iowa State was a 22.5-point favorite) put it at 97%.
Iowa State · Q1 3:45Iowa State 55-7 Bowling Green
Iowa State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.05 in of rainBowling Green 7-55 Iowa StateBowling Green lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.05 in of rainNo single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 2:11Iowa State fans worry for Raynor after interception and head collision
My God, Raynor
r/CFB game threadRaynor you can't do that 😭💀
r/CFB game thread - Q2 9:47Iowa State fans argue preseason predictions were wrong after Barnes scores
do you know what a rebuild is? I get you’re an Iowa fan and can’t read, but you do understand what a rebuild is right? It’s what your basketball team has been in for the last 30…
r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page. - Q2 2:14Iowa State fans mock Moberly and Raynor usage while debating conference realignment
guys if every time Moberly comes out and Raynor is out wide it’s a QB power they’re not going to fall for it
r/CFB game thread - Q3 8:07Flora returns punt 66 yards for touchdown, extending Iowa State lead to 45-7
Flora is gonna have an NFL career like Kene Nwangwu
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Iowa State -22.5), at 95% for Iowa State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Iowa State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 5:28Raynor 34-yd TD pass to PoliteIowa State goes ahead 7-0Q1, 5:28 · Iowa State 7, Bowling Green 0▲2%Iowa State’s chance to win, 95% to 97%▲2%Iowa State’s chance to win, 95% to 97%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 3:58Kastantin 59-yd TD pass to Sharpties it 7-7Q1, 3:58 · Iowa State 7, Bowling Green 7▼6%Iowa State’s chance to win, 97% to 91%▼6%Iowa State’s chance to win, 97% to 91%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 3:45Pettaway 100-yd kickoff return TDIowa State goes ahead 14-7Q1, 3:45 · Iowa State 14, Bowling Green 7▲6%Iowa State’s chance to win, 91% to 97%▲6%Iowa State’s chance to win, 91% to 97%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 1:46Raynor intercepted by Braxton at the BGSU14Q1, 1:46 · Iowa State 14, Bowling Green 714-7score after the play14-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 0:19Flora 61-yd TD runIowa State leads 21-7Q1, 0:19 · Iowa State 21, Bowling Green 721-7score after the play21-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 9:47Barnes 3-yd TD runIowa State leads 28-7Q2, 9:47 · Iowa State 28, Bowling Green 728-7score after the play28-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 5:12Flora 42-yd TD runIowa State leads 35-7Q2, 5:12 · Iowa State 35, Bowling Green 735-7score after the play35-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 10:31Raynor sacked for a 5-yd lossQ3, 10:31 · Iowa State 35, Bowling Green 735-7score after the play35-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 8:07Flora 66-yd punt return TDIowa State leads 45-7Q3, 8:07 · Iowa State 45, Bowling Green 745-7score after the play45-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 8:27Barnes 8-yd TD runIowa State leads 52-7Q4, 8:27 · Iowa State 52, Bowling Green 752-7score after the play52-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Iowa State scored on 8 of its 12 drives; Bowling Green on 1 of its 14.
Iowa State’s drives are teal, Bowling Green’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“No replay is concerning. No commercial is baffling. Hopefully he comes out of this okay, this feels bad though.”
When fans got loud
Loud
The jump was loud; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
Iowa State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 0% to 1%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Iowa State 55, Bowling Green 7
Iowa State covered −22.5 by 25.5. The total, 62, went over 43.5.
| Team totals | Bowling Green | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 186 | 507 |
| Passing | 9 of 22, 96 yds | 12 of 18, 142 yds |
| Rushing | 30 for 90 yds | 46 for 365 yds |
| First downs | 10 | 25 |
| Third down | 2 of 12 | 4 of 10 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Penalties | 5 for 42 yds | 4 for 55 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:11 | 32:49 |
Bowling Green leaders
- Passing Jay Kastantin 8 of 17, 97 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Ke'Marion Baldwin 6 for 38 yds; Austyn Dendy 11 for 37 yds
- Receiving Winn Sharp 1 for 59 yds, 1 TD; Jeremiah Scoby 2 for 17 yds
Iowa State leaders
- Passing Jaylen Raynor 11 of 17, 133 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Aiden Flora 12 for 194 yds, 2 TD; Arnold Barnes 13 for 63 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Jamal Polite Jr. 1 for 34 yds, 1 TD; Tyler Claiborne 2 for 28 yds
Rain for part of the game
74° at kickoff · 0.01 in of rain by radar over the stadium · wind 12 mph from the south-southeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 24
The usual here around this date is 69°, with about 7 in 10 games between 57° and 81°.
September game-day temperatures at Jack Trice Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Ames airport, 1.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Bowling Green · 0-2
Rated 117th in our preseason ratings, 135th now.
Two straight losses.
Last two games
Iowa State · 1-1
Rated 162nd in our preseason ratings, 138th now, up 24 spots.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Iowa State
- Wk 1Wvs Southeast Missouri State38-10
- Wk 2Lat Iowa13-16
Bowling Green
- Wk 1Lvs Tarleton State13-20
- Wk 2Lat Nebraska7-56
Power rating by week
Bowling Green is rated 0.2 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Bowling Green’s explosive plays against Iowa State, 40 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Bowling Green’s explosive plays against Iowa State’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 7th percentile · Iowa State defense, 47th
Iowa State’s rushing EPA against Bowling Green’s defense
Iowa State offense, 48th percentile · Bowling Green defense, 12th
Bowling Green’s EPA/play against Iowa State’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 13th percentile · Iowa State defense, 40th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Iowa State leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 1977 · Iowa State has won the last 2
- 1979Iowa State 38-10
- 1977Iowa State 35-21
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Iowa State fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (57th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 68%
- Line · 97%
- Iowa State fans · 57th
- Bowling Green fans · 7th
Iowa State favored by 22.5 · Total 43.5
How games like this usually go
Iowa State by 22.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The total fell 2 points.
Total: 45.5 → 43.5
The books’ cut: 3.7%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm, with rain. Feels like 82° at kickoff.
Bowling Green at Iowa State · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Jack Trice Stadium, Ames
- 82°feels like at kickoff
- 0.01 inrain at kickoff
- 81weather score, Mixed
- 2ndroughest of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At Jack Trice Stadium that day, a 6:30 pm or 7 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 81 at 11 am.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
- 11 am: 81, Mixed (this game)
- 11:45 am: 74, Rough
- 1 pm: 85, Mixed
- 2:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
- 6 pm: 99, Comfortable
- 6:30 pm: 100, Ideal
- 7 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Iowa State is worth +3.9 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 47th percentile.
65% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (32-17 home, 21-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.2 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 518 miles to get here.