Bowling Green at Iowa State
Bowling Green (0‑2) travels to Iowa State (1‑1), with Iowa State favored by 23.5. The model gives Iowa State a 65% shot.
How they got here
Last two games
Bowling Green · 0-2
Picked #117 in the preseason · now #134.
Two straight losses.
L 7–56 @ Nebraska #37 of 669
lost by 49 as a 30.5-point underdog
L 13–20 vs Tarleton State #95 of 669
lost by 7 as a 1.5-point favorite
Last two games
Iowa State · 1-1
Picked #162 in the preseason · now #140 — better than expected.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 13–16 @ IowaTop 25 #17 of 669
lost by 3 as a 14-point underdog
W 38–10 vs Southeast Missouri State #231 of 669
won by 28 as a 29.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Bowling Green
- Bowling Green is still shaking off a 49-point loss.
Iowa State
- Iowa State is the program that turned 'losing for 100 years' into one of the most-loved Big 12 stories of the 2020s.
The series
Iowa State leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 1977 · Iowa State has won the last 2
- 1979Iowa State 38–10
- 1977Iowa State 35–21
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Bowling Green
The chip · vs the national mediaFalcon fans will remind you that Urban Meyer's whole legend started here, in their building — and they say the pundits who can't place Bowling Green on a map are the same ones who'll act surprised when the place produces the next big name.
What this game touches
The 4-8 reset under a famous new face. Eddie George's debut went 4-8 (2-6 MAC) — a transition year with a transfer-built roster that fell short of a bowl, the kind of rebuild season that tests whether a marquee name can translate to wins in Bowling Green.
Iowa State
The chip · vs big brotherThe chip is shaped like the team across the state — Iowa State fans are tired of being the little sibling in their own Cy-Hawk rivalry, the program everyone roots for but nobody fears. They wanted Campbell's era to flip that for good, and now they have to defend it all over again.
Best players
Bowling Green
- Dorian Pringle (LB) · 23 tackles
- Kal-El Pascal (S) · 22 tackles
- Preston EstoEsta (S) · 13 tackles
Iowa State
- Sullivan Schlimgen (LB) · 18 tackles
- Carson Willich (LB) · 13 tackles
- Drew Surges (S) · 10 tackles
The line, and the room
Iowa State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (44th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
- Model · 65%
- Market · 97%
- Iowa State fans · 44th
- Bowling Green fans · 50th
Home −23.5 · O/U 44.5
Conditions
86°F · 10 mph wind
Iowa State is worth +3.6 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 39th percentile.
65% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (30–16 home, 21–20 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.9 at home vs. away over 73 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 518 miles to get here.
Recent games
Iowa State
- Wk 1Wvs Southeast Missouri State38-10
- Wk 2Lat Iowa13-16
Bowling Green
- Wk 1Lvs Tarleton State13-20
- Wk 2Lat Nebraska7-56
Trajectory
The market
Spread: −22.5 → −23.5 · Total: 45.5 → 44.5
Book hold: 3.5%