Miami (OH) at Cincinnati
Miami (OH) (1‑1) travels to Cincinnati (2‑0), with Cincinnati favored by 14.5.
This is Battle for the Victory Bell (OH) — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last two games
Miami (OH) · 1-1
Picked #78 in the preseason · now #87.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 45–7 vs Holy Cross #232 of 669
won by 38 as a 30.5-point favorite
L 14–59 @ Pittsburgh #46 of 669
lost by 45 as a 16.5-point underdog
Last two games
Cincinnati · 2-0
Picked #109 in the preseason · now #110 — about right.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 62–10 vs Western Carolina #195 of 669
won by 52 as a 36.5-point favorite
W 34–15 vs Boston College #132 of 669
won by 19 as a 7-point favorite
What’s at stake
Miami (OH)
- Miami (OH) is coming off a 38-point win.
Cincinnati
- Cincinnati is coming off a 52-point win.
The series
Cincinnati leads the series 35-34-1
70 meetings since 1954 · Cincinnati won the last meeting
- 2024Cincinnati 27–16
- 2023Miami (OH) 31–24
- 2022 · neutral siteCincinnati 38–17
- 2021Cincinnati 49–14
- 2019Cincinnati 35–13
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Miami (OH)
The chip · vs the national mediaThe fanbase points to the names Oxford gave the sport — and watches the program get filed as just another MAC team, as if the place that produced college football's great coaches were a footnote instead of a foundation.
What this game touches
Three title games, no banner. Miami reached its third straight MAC Championship Game in 2025 and lost it 23-13 to Western Michigan, then dropped the Arizona Bowl 18-3 to Fresno State to finish 7-7 — the recurring ache of a program that keeps arriving at the doorstep and getting turned away.
Cincinnati
The chip · vs the committeeBearcat fans remember being told for years a team like theirs could never make the Playoff — so they made it, undefeated, the first ones in — and they say the people who tried to keep them out still haven't given them full credit for kicking down the door.
What this game touches
Proving the Big 12 move was worth it. After the 2021 breakthrough, Cincinnati's Power-conference reality has been a grind — a 5-7 missed bowl in 2024, then a 7-6 in 2025 capped by a 35-13 Liberty Bowl loss to Navy — with the fanbase still waiting for the Big 12 to feel like the upgrade it was sold as.
Best players
Miami (OH)
- Malcolm Mccain (LB) · 12 tackles
- David McComb (QB) · 474 passing yards
- Toney Coleman Jr. (DB) · 9 tackles
Cincinnati
- Jonathan Thompson (LB) · 14 tackles
- Antwan Peek Jr. (LB) · 14 tackles
- Gi'Bran Payne (RB) · 210 rushing yards
The line, and the room
Miami (OH) fans are feeling better about their season (89th percentile) than Cincinnati fans are (54th) — even with Cincinnati favored here.
- Model · 58%
- Market · 88%
- Cincinnati fans · 54th
- Miami (OH) fans · 89th
Home −14.5 · O/U 51
Conditions
89°F · 6 mph wind · Fair
Cincinnati is worth +5.6 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 74th percentile.
74% at home, 61% on the road against FBS opponents (35–12 home, 25–16 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.2 at home vs. away over 71 games — inside the ±7.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 30 miles to get here.
Recent games
Cincinnati
- Wk 1Wvs Boston College34-15
- Wk 2Wvs Western Carolina62-10
Miami (OH)
- Wk 1Lat Pittsburgh14-59
- Wk 2Wvs Holy Cross45-7
Trajectory
The market
Book hold: 5.0%