Cincinnati 35-31 Miami (OH) (Sep 19, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Miami (OH) · Cincinnati

Miami (OH)1-231

Cincinnati3-035Final

Sat, Sep 19 · TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio · Crowd 19,188

Cincinnati beat Miami (OH) 35-31 after its win chance fell to 3%.

Winners have been down to 3% or less in about 1 of every 55 games since 2018.

We had Cincinnati favored. It won.

Next: Miami (OH) beat UConn 24-21, Sat Sep 26

Next: Cincinnati beat Kansas State 31-26, Sat Sep 26

Top comment in the game thread

Satterfield should be fired at halftime

Q2 0:21 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Tabb 53-yd TD run, Cincinnati goes ahead 35-31 (Q4, 1:29). Cincinnati went from 57% to 86% to win. Fans right then: “Fumble luck finally flipped lol” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Cincinnati a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (Cincinnati was a 14.5-point favorite) put it at 88%.

Kickoff return TD

Miami (OH) · Q1 14:46

FinalCincinnati 35-31 Miami (OH)Cincinnati wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 3:4638-yd puntCincinnati 39% → 63% (+24)
2Q4 1:29Tabb 53-yd TD run, Cincinnati goes ahead 35-31Cincinnati 57% → 86% (+29)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 3:4638-yd puntMiami (OH) 61% → 37% (−24)
2Q4 1:29Tabb 53-yd TD run, Cincinnati goes ahead 35-31Miami (OH) 43% → 14% (−29)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 0:21Cincinnati fans chant fire Satterfield as Miami leads 28-7 with 21 seconds leftQuoted at the top of the page.This clown should’ve been fired on the spot after the first loss to Miami. Even if we turn this around somehow, this dude needs find his own uber back to Cliftonr/CFB game thread
Q3 13:28Cincinnati fans rage as French is sacked for turnover on downsJust getting dominated in every aspectr/CFB game threadComplete joke obviously you flip the fieldr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:44McComb fumbles after sack, Cincinnati recovers to seal winFumble luck finally flipped lolr/CFB game thread

Cincinnati’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Cincinnati -14.5), at 71% for Cincinnati (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Cincinnati or Miami (OH) flair (236 and 56); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Every drive

Cincinnati scored on 6 of its 14 drives; Miami (OH) on 4 of its 11.

Cincinnati’s drives are teal, Miami (OH)’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Miami (OH)’s side

Miami (OH)’s best moment: McComb 33-yd pass to Witten (Q4 5:18). It lifted Miami (OH)’s win chance by 17 points.

How Miami (OH) fans took it: “Terrible, terrible, terrible. Nobody wins. We don't get the bell. Cincy's administration gets to live under the delusion Satterfield could do something…” r/CFB game thread

“Dang! I was looking forward to the satt sacking! Still shouldn’t keep him but he may have survived a morning sacking”

A Cincinnati fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The final stretch is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

The winner fell to 2%.

What it cost

Cincinnati’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Miami (OH) · lost0% → 0%

Cincinnati · won1% → ▼0%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Cincinnati 35, Miami (OH) 31

Miami (OH) covered +14.5 by 10.5. The total, 66, went over 50.5.

Team totals	Miami (OH)	Cincinnati
Total yards	410	446
Passing	17 of 28, 334 yds	31 of 43, 309 yds
Rushing	28 for 76 yds	33 for 137 yds
First downs	20	25
Third down	6 of 12	6 of 14
Fourth down	0 of 0	3 of 4
Turnovers	2	1
Penalties	7 for 57 yds	4 for 40 yds
Time of possession	26:34	33:26

Miami (OH) leaders

Passing David McComb 17 of 28, 334 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Rodney Nelson 7 for 32 yds; David McComb 9 for 19 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Maleek Huggins 4 for 128 yds, 1 TD; Damarion Witten 3 for 84 yds

Cincinnati leaders

Passing JC French 31 of 43, 309 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Cole Tabb 6 for 78 yds, 2 TD; JC French 16 for 39 yds, 1 TD
Receiving JaVonnie Gibson 7 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Gavin Grover 5 for 59 yds

No rain and calm

89° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the west, gusts to 15

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 1:29 left6:49 p.m.

Miami (OH) 31, Cincinnati 35 · Cincinnati 86% to win

no rain · wind 4 mph from the northwest · 88°, feels like 96°

Tabb 53-yd TD run, Cincinnati goes ahead 35-31

Measured at Cincinnat/lunken airport, 5.6 miles away, and Cincinnati / N Kentucky International airport, 9.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

This is Battle for the Victory Bell (OH) — see the full head-to-head history →

Recent games

Last two games

Miami (OH) · 1-1

Rated 78th in our preseason ratings, 86th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 45-7 vs Holy Cross #228 of 668

won by 38 as a 30.5-point favorite

L 14-59 @ PittsburghTop 25 #45 of 668

lost by 45 as a 16.5-point underdog

Last two games

Cincinnati · 2-0

Rated 109th in our preseason ratings, 109th now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 62-10 vs Western Carolina #193 of 668

won by 52 as a 36.5-point favorite

W 34-15 vs Boston College #131 of 668

won by 19 as a 7-point favorite

Week by week

Cincinnati

Wk 1Wvs Boston College34-15
Wk 2Wvs Western Carolina62-10

Miami (OH)

Wk 1Lat Pittsburgh14-59
Wk 2Wvs Holy Cross45-7

Power rating by week

Miami (OH) is rated 2.0 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Cincinnati’s explosive plays against Miami (OH), 69 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Cincinnati’s explosive plays against Miami (OH)’s defense
Cincinnati offense, 98th percentile · Miami (OH) defense, 29th
Miami (OH)’s passing EPA against Cincinnati’s defense
Miami (OH) offense, 68th percentile · Cincinnati defense, 7th
Cincinnati’s EPA/play against Miami (OH)’s defense
Cincinnati offense, 90th percentile · Miami (OH) defense, 41st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Miami (OH)Cincinnati

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Cincinnati leads the series 35-34-1

70 meetings since 1954 · Cincinnati won the last meeting

2024Cincinnati 27-16
2023Miami (OH) 31-24
2022 · neutral siteCincinnati 38-17
2021Cincinnati 49-14
2019Cincinnati 35-13

Each line is Cincinnati’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Miami (OH) fans are in a better mood than Cincinnati fans (62nd vs 12th among FBS fanbases), even with Cincinnati favored.

Cincinnati favored by 14.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Cincinnati by 14.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Miami (OH).

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Cincinnati is worth +5.8 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 79th percentile.

76% at home, 58% on the road against FBS opponents (37-12 home, 25-18 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.6 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 30 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Cincinnati 27, Miami (OH) 16Sep 14, 2024

Our History pages cover 9 of their meetings since 2015.

Cincinnati beats Miami (OH) 35-31