Bowling Green routs Sacramento State 38-10
Team pages: Sacramento State · Bowling Green
Bowling Green routed Sacramento State 38-10. Share this game
We had Bowling Green favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Bowling Green a 66% chance, and the closing betting line (Bowling Green was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.
Bowling Green 38-10 Sacramento State
Bowling Green wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Sacramento State 10-38 Bowling GreenSacramento State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Bowling Green -9.5), at 82% for Bowling Green (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Bowling Green scored on 5 of its 9 drives; Sacramento State on 2 of its 11.
Bowling Green’s drives are teal, Sacramento State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Sacramento State’s side
Sacramento State’s best moment: J.Kastantin pass intercepted by B.Silvera at Sac St46 QB hurried by F.Puloka (Q1 13:30). It lifted Sacramento State’s win chance by 10 points.
What it cost
Bowling Green’s chance to win the conference rose from 1% to 2%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Bowling Green 38, Sacramento State 10
Bowling Green covered −9.5 by 18.5. The total, 48, went over 43.5.
| Team totals | Sacramento State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 215 | 355 |
| Passing | 13 of 28, 145 yds | 13 of 17, 137 yds |
| Rushing | 35 for 70 yds | 41 for 218 yds |
| First downs | 15 | 22 |
| Third down | 3 of 14 | 5 of 9 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 7 for 85 yds | 3 for 25 yds |
| Time of possession | 28:50 | 31:10 |
Sacramento State leaders
- Passing Jackson Sharman 13 of 28, 145 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Isaiah Ene 12 for 46 yds; Daniel Swinney 8 for 45 yds
- Receiving Matthew Coleman 6 for 85 yds, 1 TD; Onterrio Smith Jr. 4 for 37 yds
Bowling Green leaders
- Passing Jay Kastantin 11 of 15, 116 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Austyn Dendy 15 for 86 yds, 2 TD; Jay Kastantin 7 for 50 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Jeremiah Scoby 6 for 70 yds; Joseph Saffold 3 for 47 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
70° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 61°, with about 7 in 10 games between 50° and 73°.
October game-day temperatures at Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Toledo airport, 15 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Sacramento State · 1-4
Rated 131st in our preseason ratings, 180th now.
Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.
Last three games
Bowling Green · 1-4
Rated 117th in our preseason ratings, 153rd now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 4-point win over Miami (OH) as a 10.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Bowling Green
- Wk 1Lvs Tarleton State13-20
- Wk 2Lat Nebraska7-56
- Wk 3Lat Iowa State7-55
- Wk 4Lvs South Florida6-14
- Wk 5Wat Miami (OH)24-20
Sacramento State
- Wk 1Lat Eastern Michigan17-28
- Wk 1Wvs Mississippi Valley State52-0
- Wk 2Lat Fresno State3-49
- Wk 3Lvs North Dakota State10-31
- Wk 4Lvs Massachusetts6-35
Power rating by week
Bowling Green is rated 2.1 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Sacramento State’s explosive plays against Bowling Green, 54 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Sacramento State’s explosive plays against Bowling Green’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 1st percentile · Bowling Green defense, 55th
Sacramento State’s passing EPA against Bowling Green’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 7th percentile · Bowling Green defense, 47th
Bowling Green’s success rate against Sacramento State’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 16th percentile · Sacramento State defense, 60th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Bowling Green fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (85th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 66%
- Line · 78%
- Bowling Green fans · 85th
- Sacramento State fans · 4th
Bowling Green favored by 9.5 · Total 43.5
How games like this usually go
Bowling Green by 9.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Bowling Green.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −7.5 → −9.5 · Total: 44.5 → 43.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Bowling Green is worth +2.5 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 22nd percentile.
33% at home, 35% on the road against FBS opponents (13-26 home, 17-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.3 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,995 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Bowling Green2nd1-0
- Sacramento State12th0-2