Ball State beats Bowling Green 32-31 in overtime
Team pages: Ball State · Bowling Green
Ball State beat Bowling Green 32-31 in overtime after its win chance fell to 3%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 3% or less in about 1 of every 50 games since 2018.
We had Bowling Green favored. Ball State won.
Next: Ball State vs Sacramento State, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Ball State favored by 14
Next: Bowling Green at Buffalo, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Bowling Green underdog by 3.5
How it swung
The turning point: Horton 1-yd TD run, Ball State goes ahead 32-31 (OT). Ball State went from 22% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Ball State a 31% chance, and the closing betting line (Ball State was a 6-point underdog) put it at 31%.
Bowling Green · Q2 6:50Fumble return TDBowling Green · Q4 1:01
Ball State 32-31 Bowling GreenBall State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Bowling Green 31-32 Ball StateBowling Green lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The five plays that swung it
- 1Q2 7:07Horton 8-yd TD run, Ball State leads 10-0Ball State 56% → 78% (+22)
- 2Q2 6:50Kastantin 77-yd TD pass to Ridley, cuts it to 10-7Ball State 78% → 51% (−27)
- 3Q4 1:12Kastantin 6-yd TD pass to Jacon-Duffy, ties it 17-17Ball State 62% → 26% (−36)
- 4OTDendy 4-yd TD run, Bowling Green goes ahead 31-24Ball State 41% → 13% (−28)
- 5OTHorton 1-yd TD run, Ball State goes ahead 32-31Ball State 22% → 100% (+78)
The five plays that swung it
- 1Q2 7:07Horton 8-yd TD run, Ball State leads 10-0Bowling Green 44% → 22% (−22)
- 2Q2 6:50Kastantin 77-yd TD pass to Ridley, cuts it to 10-7Bowling Green 22% → 49% (+27)
- 3Q4 1:12Kastantin 6-yd TD pass to Jacon-Duffy, ties it 17-17Bowling Green 38% → 74% (+36)
- 4OTDendy 4-yd TD run, Bowling Green goes ahead 31-24Bowling Green 59% → 87% (+28)
- 5OTHorton 1-yd TD run, Ball State goes ahead 32-31Bowling Green 78% → 0% (−78)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Bowling Green -6), at 28% for Ball State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Ball State scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Bowling Green on 4 of its 9.
Ball State’s drives are teal, Bowling Green’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Bowling Green’s side
Bowling Green’s best moment: Kastantin 6-yd TD pass to Jacon-Duffy, ties it 17-17 (Q4 1:12). It lifted Bowling Green’s win chance by 36 points.
The winner fell to 3%.
What it cost
Bowling Green’s chance to win the conference fell from 3% to 1%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Bowling Green plays at Buffalo on Sat Oct 24 with a 1% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Ball State 32, Bowling Green 31
Ball State covered +6 by 7. The total, 63, went over 46.5.
| Team totals | Ball State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 435 | 313 |
| Passing | 16 of 24, 195 yds | 17 of 24, 215 yds |
| Rushing | 42 for 240 yds | 35 for 98 yds |
| First downs | 23 | 18 |
| Third down | 5 of 12 | 5 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 6 for 57 yds | 5 for 60 yds |
| Time of possession | 30:15 | 29:45 |
Ball State leaders
- Passing Keldric Luster 16 of 24, 195 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Keldric Luster 17 for 125 yds, 1 TD; TJ Horton 16 for 81 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving CJ Nelson 6 for 59 yds; Isaiah Thacker 2 for 40 yds
Bowling Green leaders
- Passing Jay Kastantin 17 of 24, 215 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Austyn Dendy 17 for 61 yds, 1 TD; Nakai Amachree 5 for 21 yds
- Receiving Brennan Ridley 2 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Winn Sharp 4 for 35 yds
No rain through the game
48° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 58°, with about 7 in 10 games between 47° and 71°.
October game-day temperatures at Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Toledo airport, 15 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Ball State · 1-5
Rated 161st in our preseason ratings, 166th now.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Bowling Green · 2-4
Rated 117th in our preseason ratings, 136th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Miami (OH) as a 10.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Bowling Green
- Wk 2Lat Nebraska7-56
- Wk 3Lat Iowa State7-55
- Wk 4Lvs South Florida6-14
- Wk 5Wat Miami (OH)24-20
- Wk 6Wvs Sacramento State38-10
Ball State
- Wk 2Wvs Stony Brook41-17
- Wk 3Lat Liberty15-51
- Wk 4Lat Kent State13-26
- Wk 5Lvs Toledo24-39
- Wk 6Lat Northwestern14-45
Power rating by week
Bowling Green is rated 1.8 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Ball State’s explosive plays against Bowling Green, 32 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Ball State’s explosive plays against Bowling Green’s defense
Ball State offense, 87th percentile · Bowling Green defense, 55th
Bowling Green’s passing EPA against Ball State’s defense
Bowling Green offense, 30th percentile · Ball State defense, 1st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Bowling Green leads the series 21-9-1
31 meetings since 1968 · Bowling Green has won the last 3
- 2024Bowling Green 38-13
- 2023Bowling Green 24-21
- 2015Bowling Green 48-10
- 2014Ball State 41-24
- 2009Bowling Green 31-17
Each line is Bowling Green’s chance to win through that meeting. Bowling Green is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Bowling Green fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (64th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Bowling Green favored by 6 · Total 46.5
How games like this usually go
Bowling Green by 6: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2.5 points toward Ball State.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: −8.5 → −6 · Total: 44.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Bowling Green is worth +2.5 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 22nd percentile.
33% at home, 35% on the road against FBS opponents (13-26 home, 17-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.3 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 123 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Bowling Green2nd2-0
- Ball State12th0-2