Sacramento State at Ball State
Ball State (2‑5) hosts Sacramento State (1‑6). The market has Ball State favored by 14.5. Ball State’s offense is at the 88th percentile on explosive plays; Sacramento State’s defense is at the 11th.
How they got here
Last three games
Sacramento State · 1-6
Rated 131st in our preseason ratings, 239th now.
Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.
Last three games
Ball State · 2-5
Rated 161st in our preseason ratings, 157th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 1-point win over Bowling Green as a 6-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Ball State’s explosive plays against Sacramento State, 77 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Ball State’s explosive plays against Sacramento State’s defense
Ball State offense, 88th percentile · Sacramento State defense, 11th
Ball State’s success rate against Sacramento State’s defense
Ball State offense, 13th percentile · Sacramento State defense, 59th
Ball State’s passing EPA against Sacramento State’s defense
Ball State offense, 47th percentile · Sacramento State defense, 13th
What’s at stake
Sacramento State
- Sacramento State is 3 games back in Mid-American with 3 left to make it up.
- Sacramento State is still shaking off a 41-point loss.
Ball State
- Ball State needs 4 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 22% to get there with a win here, 3% with a loss.
- Ball State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2020.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Sacramento State
The chip · vs the blue bloodsSac State fans believe the Sacramento market, a $57M NIL base, and a new stadium are exactly what Power programs take for granted — and that the Hornets are building it themselves, from scratch, with no inherited infrastructure. They say the FBS will learn what the Big Sky already knows: this program punches up.
Ball State
The chip · vs the national mediaBall State's title runs get treated as isolated upsets rather than a program with real periodic championship pedigree -- three decades, three different eras, the same result. Fans see a pattern the rest of the sport treats as a coincidence.
What this game touches
The long gaps between titles. 24 years passed between the 1996 and 2020 MAC titles. The program's identity is built on real championship pedigree, but also on long stretches of irrelevance in between -- 2025's 4-8 start under a new coach is the latest reminder of how far apart the good years can be.
Best players
Sacramento State
- Boogsie Silvera (S) · 50 tackles
- Matthew Coleman (WR) · 473 receiving yards
- Amari Wallace (S) · 32 tackles
Ball State
- Stu Smith (DB) · 36 tackles
- Kaleb Stewart (LB) · 35 tackles
- Cincear Lewis (LB) · 33 tackles
What to watch
The spread has moved 5.0 points toward Ball State since opening (−9.5 → −14.5).
The total has moved up 2.0 points since opening (49.5 → 51.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Ball State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (28th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
- Model · 58%
- Line · 88%
- Ball State fans · 28th
- Sacramento State fans · 4th
Ball State favored by 14.5 · Total 51.5
Ball State by 14.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Ball State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Scheumann Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 90
Sacramento State at Ball State · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 3:30 pm ET · Scheumann Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Scheumann Stadium: noon Saturdays score 88, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 90.
- noon: 88, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Ball State is worth +7.2 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 94th percentile.
47% at home, 25% on the road against FBS opponents (18-20 home, 13-38 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,913 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Ball State
- Wk 3Lat Liberty15-51
- Wk 4Lat Kent State13-26
- Wk 5Lvs Toledo24-39
- Wk 6Lat Northwestern14-45
- Wk 7Wat Bowling Green32-31
Sacramento State
- Wk 2Lat Fresno State3-49
- Wk 3Lvs North Dakota State10-31
- Wk 4Lvs Massachusetts6-35
- Wk 6Lat Bowling Green10-38
- Wk 7Lvs Ohio7-48
Power rating by week
Ball State is rated 5.8 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 5 points toward Ball State.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: −9.5 → −14.5 · Total: 49.5 → 51.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Ball State10th1-2
- Sacramento State13th0-4