Miami (OH) beats Akron 34-14
Team pages: Akron · Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) beat Akron 34-14. Share this game
We had Miami (OH) favored. It won.
Next: Akron at Kent State, Sat Oct 24 · 1:00 PM ET · Akron underdog by 3
Next: Miami (OH) at Central Michigan, Sat Oct 24 · 1:00 PM ET · Miami (OH) favored by 2.5
How it swung
The turning point: Roggow intercepted by Minich at the Akron 44, returned 18 yards (Q1, 2:29). Miami (OH) went from 46% to 64% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Miami (OH) a 78% chance, and the closing betting line (Miami (OH) was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.
Miami (OH) won by 20, after dipping to 46% in the first quarter.
Akron never had better than a 54% chance.
Miami (OH) · Q2 2:29Miami (OH) 34-14 Akron
Miami (OH) wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Akron 14-34 Miami (OH)Akron lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 5:18Roggow 6-yd TD pass to Williams, Akron goes ahead 7-0Miami (OH) 72% → 58% (−14)
- 2Q1 2:29InterceptionRoggow intercepted by Minich at the Akron 44, returned 18 yardsMiami (OH) 46% → 64% (+18)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 5:18Roggow 6-yd TD pass to Williams, Akron goes ahead 7-0Akron 28% → 42% (+14)
- 2Q1 2:29InterceptionRoggow intercepted by Minich at the Akron 44, returned 18 yardsAkron 54% → 36% (−18)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Miami (OH) -9.5), at 81% for Miami (OH) (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Miami (OH) scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Akron on 2 of its 14.
Miami (OH)’s drives are teal, Akron’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Akron’s side
Akron’s best moment: Roggow 6-yd TD pass to Williams, Akron goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 5:18). It lifted Akron’s win chance by 14 points.
What it cost
Miami (OH)’s chance to win the conference rose from 6% to 8%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Miami (OH) plays at Central Michigan on Sat Oct 24 with an 8% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Miami (OH) 34, Akron 14
Miami (OH) covered −9.5 by 10.5. The total, 48, went over 47.5.
| Team totals | Akron | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 315 | 389 |
| Passing | 22 of 38, 234 yds | 8 of 16, 65 yds |
| Rushing | 32 for 81 yds | 35 for 324 yds |
| First downs | 14 | 16 |
| Third down | 6 of 17 | 2 of 9 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 4 | 1 |
| Penalties | 7 for 51 yds | 4 for 40 yds |
| Time of possession | 32:04 | 27:56 |
Akron leaders
- Passing Brayden Roggow 22 of 38, 234 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT
- Rushing Jordan Gant 15 for 46 yds, 1 TD; Taven Curry 2 for 20 yds
- Receiving Miles Burris 6 for 54 yds; Jean Louis III 1 for 49 yds
Miami (OH) leaders
- Passing Caleb Heavner 8 of 16, 65 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Rodney Nelson 13 for 142 yds, 2 TD; Scoop Smith 1 for 69 yds
- Receiving Damarion Witten 1 for 27 yds, 1 TD; Lynel Billups-Williams 3 for 21 yds
No rain through the game
55° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 62°, with about 7 in 10 games between 48° and 75°.
Game-day temperatures at Yager Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Oxford airport, 3.0 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Akron · 1-5
Rated 58th in our preseason ratings, 121st now.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Miami (OH) · 3-3
Rated 78th in our preseason ratings, 106th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Miami (OH)
- Wk 2Wvs Holy Cross45-7
- Wk 3Lat Cincinnati31-35
- Wk 4Wvs UConn24-21
- Wk 5Lvs Bowling Green20-24
- Wk 6Wat Massachusetts20-19
Akron
- Wk 2Wvs Robert Morris45-10
- Wk 3Lat Minnesota7-41
- Wk 4Lvs UNLV10-38
- Wk 5Lat Central Michigan17-41
- Wk 6Lvs Eastern Michigan23-25
Power rating by week
Miami (OH) is rated 1.5 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Miami (OH)’s explosive plays against Akron, 80 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Miami (OH)’s explosive plays against Akron’s defense
Miami (OH) offense, 94th percentile · Akron defense, 14th
Miami (OH)’s EPA/play against Akron’s defense
Miami (OH) offense, 58th percentile · Akron defense, 10th
Miami (OH)’s passing EPA against Akron’s defense
Miami (OH) offense, 68th percentile · Akron defense, 19th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Miami (OH) leads the series 22-8
30 meetings since 1993 · Miami (OH) has won the last 8
- 2025Miami (OH) 20-7
- 2023Miami (OH) 19-0
- 2022Miami (OH) 27-9
- 2021Miami (OH) 34-21
- 2020Miami (OH) 38-7
Each line is Miami (OH)’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Miami (OH) fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (72nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Miami (OH) favored by 9.5 · Total 47.5
How games like this usually go
Miami (OH) by 9.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The total rose 1 point.
Total: 46.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Miami (OH) is worth +6.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 85th percentile.
73% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (27-10 home, 23-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±5.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 201 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Miami (OH)7th1-1
- Akron12th0-2