Louisville 44-20 Florida State (Oct 9, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Florida State · Louisville

Florida State3-320

Louisville3-344Final

Fri, Oct 9 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Ky. · Crowd 48,992

Louisville beat Florida State 44-20.

We had Louisville favored. It won.

Next: Florida State lost to Miami 43-35, Sat Oct 17

Next: Louisville beat Syracuse 34-26, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

35 unanswered points.... That's insane.... That's FSU

Q4 12:57 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Oct 9

How it swung

The turning point: Brown 0-yd run, turnover on downs (Q1, 4:43). Louisville went from 51% to 31% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Louisville a 55% chance, and the closing betting line (Louisville was a 4-point favorite) put it at 63%.

Louisville came back from 14 down, at one point just a 15% chance in the second quarter.

Florida State led by 14, was as high as 85% in the second quarter, and still lost.

97-yard TD run

Louisville · Q2 9:1635 unanswered

Louisville · Q3 12:45

FinalLouisville 44-20 Florida StateLouisville wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 8:34Daniels 7-yd TD run, Florida State goes ahead 7-0Louisville 57% → 44% (−13)
2Q1 4:434th and 1Brown 0-yd run, turnover on downsLouisville 51% → 31% (−20)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 8:34Daniels 7-yd TD run, Florida State goes ahead 7-0Florida State 43% → 56% (+13)
2Q1 4:434th and 1Brown 0-yd run, turnover on downsFlorida State 49% → 69% (+20)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 2:08Daniels throws to Danzy for a touchdown as fans marvel at the catchHold me closer, Micah Danzyr/CFB game thread
Q2 9:16Louisville scores on Brown run as fans rip Norvell for not kicking field goalthere you go louisville. were all rooting for you. kick our ass and dont let us downr/CFB game threadWould be nice to be up 3 scores and kicking off to them than up 1 scorer/CFB game thread
Q4 12:57Jennings runs for a touchdown, extending Louisville's unanswered point streak to 35Quoted at the top of the page.35 unanswered. Wowr/CFB game thread
Q4 4:21A player took a hard hit.Damn, that was a hit.r/CFB game thread

Louisville’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Louisville -4), at 67% for Louisville (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Louisville or Florida State flair (430 and 1,032); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Louisville’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Louisville scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Florida State on 3 of its 11.

Louisville’s drives are teal, Florida State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Florida State’s side

Florida State’s best moment: Brown 0-yd run, turnover on downs (Q1 4:43). It lifted Florida State’s win chance by 20 points.

“Again, shotgun in short yardage absolutely should be illegal. If they had lined up under center and QB sneaked, they’d have gotten it”

A Florida State fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

The jump was quiet; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Louisville fans

didn“Awwww and our XP gets blocked, so the failed 2 point conversion didn’t change anything”

Florida State fans

norvell“I don’t know if I’ve ever passionately hated a very good person the way I hate Mike Norvell.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, back, don, take.

The winner fell to 15%.

What it cost

Florida State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Florida State · lost1% → ▼0%

Louisville · won1% → 1%

Win the conference

Florida State · lost1% → ▼0%

Louisville · won1% → 1%

Before the game (October 7, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Louisville 44, Florida State 20

Louisville covered −4 by 20. The total, 64, went over 60.5.

Team totals	Florida State	Louisville
Total yards	362	537
Passing	21 of 38, 209 yds	11 of 15, 140 yds
Rushing	39 for 153 yds	43 for 397 yds
First downs	22	21
Third down	7 of 17	4 of 9
Fourth down	3 of 5	0 of 1
Turnovers	1	0
Penalties	4 for 24 yds	4 for 35 yds
Time of possession	31:18	28:42

Florida State leaders

Passing Ashton Daniels 21 of 37, 209 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Ousmane Kromah 19 for 88 yds; Ashton Daniels 13 for 45 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Micahi Danzy 4 for 50 yds, 2 TD; Ousmane Kromah 4 for 43 yds

Louisville leaders

Passing Lincoln Kienholz 11 of 15, 140 yds
Rushing Isaac Brown 17 for 235 yds, 2 TD; Marquise Davis 9 for 56 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Lawayne McCoy 3 for 78 yds; Treyshun Hurry 5 for 56 yds

No rain through the game

78° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 4:43 left7:28 p.m.

Florida State 7, Louisville 0 · Louisville 31% to win

no rain · 77°

Brown 0-yd run, turnover on downs

Measured at Louisville International airport, 2.5 miles away, and Louisville/bowman airport, 5.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Florida State · 3-2

Rated 82nd in our preseason ratings, 59th now, up 23 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 31-point win over Virginia as a 1.5-point underdog.

W 38-7 vs VirginiaTop 25 #53 of 668

won by 31 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 34-7 vs Central Arkansas #207 of 668

won by 27 as a 45.5-point favorite

L 36-50 @ AlabamaTop 25 #16 of 668

lost by 14 as an 18.5-point underdog

L 24-27 vs SMUTop 25 #15 of 668

lost by 3 as a 3-point underdog

W 34-17 vs New Mexico State #148 of 668

won by 17 as a 30.5-point favorite

Last three games

Louisville · 2-3

Rated 61st in our preseason ratings, 50th now, up 11 spots.

1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 28-31 @ NC State #45 of 668

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

L 27-30 vs Wake ForestTop 25 #71 of 668

lost by 3 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 41-31 vs SMUTop 25 #13 of 668

won by 10 as a 3-point favorite

W 59-13 vs Villanova #148 of 668

won by 46 as a 39.5-point favorite

L 38-41 @ Ole MissTop 25 #11 of 668

lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog

Week by week

Louisville

Wk 1Lat Ole Miss38-41
Wk 2Wvs Villanova59-13
Wk 3Wvs SMU41-31
Wk 4Lvs Wake Forest27-30
Wk 5Lat NC State28-31

Florida State

Wk 1Wvs New Mexico State34-17
Wk 1Lvs SMU24-27
Wk 3Lat Alabama36-50
Wk 4Wvs Central Arkansas34-7
Wk 5Wvs Virginia38-7

Power rating by week

Louisville is rated 1.4 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Louisville’s EPA/play against Florida State, 78 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Louisville’s EPA/play against Florida State’s defense
Louisville offense, 93rd percentile · Florida State defense, 15th
Louisville’s explosive plays against Florida State’s defense
Louisville offense, 97th percentile · Florida State defense, 23rd
Louisville’s passing EPA against Florida State’s defense
Louisville offense, 87th percentile · Florida State defense, 24th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Florida StateLouisville

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Florida State leads the series 17-5

22 meetings since 1954 · Florida State has won the last 2

2023 · neutral siteFlorida State 16-6
2022Florida State 35-31
2021Louisville 31-23
2020Louisville 48-16
2019Florida State 35-24

Each line is Louisville’s chance to win through that meeting. Louisville is 0-4 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Louisville fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (64th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Louisville favored by 4 · Total 60.5

How games like this usually go

Louisville by 4, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Louisville.

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Louisville is worth +5.9 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.

60% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (30-20 home, 16-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.8 at home vs. away over 95 games — outside the ±6.4 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 543 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Florida State 16, Louisville 6ACC Championship · Dec 2, 2023

Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2016.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Louisville12th1-2
Florida State7th1-1

Full ACC standings

Louisville beats Florida State 44-20