Wake Forest 30-27 Louisville (Sep 26, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Wake Forest · Louisville

Wake Forest3-130

No. 16 Louisville2-227Final

Sat, Sep 26 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Ky. · Crowd 46,042

Wake Forest beat No. 16 Louisville 30-27 as an 11.5-point underdog.

We had Louisville favored. Wake Forest won.

Next: Wake Forest beat Stanford 57-3, Sat Oct 3

Next: Louisville lost to NC State 31-28, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

If we lose this game it’s going to be one of the worst losses we’ve ever had with the whistle we’ve gotten. I can’t believe it.

Q4 9:13 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Hilbert 42-yd field goal no good (Q4, 2:29). Wake Forest went from 44% to 77% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Wake Forest a 26% chance, and the closing betting line (Wake Forest was a 11.5-point underdog) put it at 18%.

77-yard TD pass

Wake Forest · Q2 5:49Blocked field goalQ4 0:15

FinalWake Forest 30-27 LouisvilleWake Forest wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The three plays that swung it

1Q4 2:29Hilbert 42-yd field goal no goodWake Forest 44% → 77% (+33)
2Q4 1:5437-yd puntWake Forest 69% → 49% (−20)
3Q4 0:55Kienholz 19-yd pass to RichardsonWake Forest 75% → 48% (−27)

The three plays that swung it

1Q4 2:29Hilbert 42-yd field goal no goodLouisville 56% → 23% (−33)
2Q4 1:5437-yd puntLouisville 31% → 51% (+20)
3Q4 0:55Kienholz 19-yd pass to RichardsonLouisville 25% → 52% (+27)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 5:06Louisville fans rage as officials call a holding penalty on Wake ForestOh so they can call offensive holding. Didn't know the refs had that one in their arsenalr/CFB game threadThese refs do understand that the game is supposed to be between the teams, right? Nobody is here to see the zebras find every ticky tack reason to get on screen.r/CFB game thread
Q2 0:57Fans argue Louisville stepped out of bounds on Kienholz passHe *probably* stepped out but quite unfortunate to have 3 different players blocking angles that could've told us one way or another.r/CFB game thread
Q3 6:46Louisville fans rage at questionable facemask penalty on Lopez's runTwo penalties cause Wake Forest's QB doesn't have a helmet that fits properlyr/CFB game threadHe got the facemask call because he didn’t strap his helmet properlyr/CFB game thread
Q3 0:42Louisville fans argue intentional grounding call on Kienholz was wrongThe receiver was very obviously in the area there. What are these refs doing? Thank god Carson Hilbert is a dog.r/CFB game thread
Q4 9:13Louisville fans rage as a penalty kills their field goal attemptQuoted at the top of the page.That’s awful. No excuse for that. Just bad discipline.r/CFB game thread

Wake Forest’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Louisville -11.5), at 17% for Wake Forest (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Louisville or Wake Forest flair (698 and 130); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Wake Forest’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Wake Forest scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Louisville on 5 of its 12.

Wake Forest’s drives are teal, Louisville’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Louisville’s side

Louisville’s best moment: Kienholz 19-yd pass to Richardson (Q4 0:55). It lifted Louisville’s win chance by 27 points.

How Louisville fans took it: “Of course they don’t call RTP on any of those hits on the QB when equivalent hits earlier were penalties. But hey, whatever. We didn’t deserve this win” r/CFB game thread

“Little ole wake forest. 🎩”

A Wake Forest fan

When fans got loud

Loud

The loudest stretch was the finish.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was loud; the crowd was busy.

The winner fell to 10%.

What it cost

Louisville’s chance to make the playoff fell from 6% to 2%.

Make the playoff

Wake Forest · won0% → ▲1%

Louisville · lost6% → ▼2%

Win the conference

Wake Forest · won0% → ▲1%

Louisville · lost5% → ▼2%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Wake Forest 30, Louisville 27

Wake Forest covered +11.5 by 14.5. The total, 57, stayed under 57.5.

Team totals	Wake Forest	Louisville
Total yards	402	399
Passing	12 of 19, 225 yds	27 of 36, 324 yds
Rushing	42 for 177 yds	38 for 75 yds
First downs	20	24
Third down	2 of 10	7 of 14
Fourth down	0 of 1	0 of 1
Turnovers	1	1
Penalties	10 for 85 yds	9 for 90 yds
Time of possession	26:26	33:34

Wake Forest leaders

Passing Giovanni Lopez 12 of 19, 225 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Ty Clark III 21 for 91 yds, 2 TD; Deuce Lawrence 10 for 64 yds
Receiving Carlos Hernandez 9 for 194 yds, 1 TD; Kamrean Johnson 1 for 17 yds

Louisville leaders

Passing Lincoln Kienholz 27 of 36, 324 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Keyjuan Brown 12 for 48 yds; Isaac Brown 9 for 33 yds
Receiving Tre Richardson 5 for 85 yds; Jaleel Skinner 4 for 82 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

72° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 2:29 left3:23 p.m.

Wake Forest 30, Louisville 27 · Louisville 23% to win

no rain · 77°

Hilbert 42-yd field goal no good

Measured at Louisville International airport, 2.5 miles away, and Louisville/bowman airport, 5.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Wake Forest · 2-1

Rated 81st in our preseason ratings, 73rd now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 20-33 vs MiamiTop 25 #9 of 668

lost by 13 as a 20.5-point underdog

W 38-36 @ Purdue #118 of 668

won by 2 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 38-16 vs Akron #60 of 668

won by 22 as a 27.5-point favorite

Last three games

Louisville · 2-1

Rated 61st in our preseason ratings, 43rd now, up 18 spots.

2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 41-31 vs SMUTop 25 #13 of 668

won by 10 as a 3-point favorite

W 59-13 vs Villanova #148 of 668

won by 46 as a 39.5-point favorite

L 38-41 @ Ole MissTop 25 #11 of 668

lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog

Week by week

Louisville

Wk 1Lat Ole Miss38-41
Wk 2Wvs Villanova59-13
Wk 3Wvs SMU41-31

Wake Forest

Wk 1Wvs Akron38-16
Wk 2Wat Purdue38-36
Wk 3Lvs Miami20-33

Power rating by week

Louisville is rated 3.7 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Wake Forest’s passing EPA against Louisville, 74 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Wake Forest’s passing EPA against Louisville’s defense
Wake Forest offense, 95th percentile · Louisville defense, 21st
Wake Forest’s EPA/play against Louisville’s defense
Wake Forest offense, 94th percentile · Louisville defense, 42nd
Wake Forest’s explosive plays against Louisville’s defense
Wake Forest offense, 79th percentile · Louisville defense, 48th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Wake ForestLouisville

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Louisville leads the series 7-3

10 meetings since 2006 · Louisville won the last meeting

2022Louisville 48-21
2021Wake Forest 37-34
2020Louisville 45-21
2019Louisville 62-59
2018Wake Forest 56-35

Each line is Louisville’s chance to win through that meeting. Louisville is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Louisville fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (48th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Louisville favored by 11.5 · Total 57.5

How games like this usually go

Louisville by 11.5, on the usual path until 12:49 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Wake Forest.

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 74° at kickoff.

Wake Forest at Louisville · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville

74°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
98weather score, Comfortable
Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium that day, a 6 pm or 7 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 98 at noon.

noon: 98, Comfortable (this game)
12:45 pm: 96, Comfortable
2 pm: 93, Comfortable
3:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
4 pm: 93, Comfortable
5 pm: 97, Comfortable
6 pm: 100, Ideal
7 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Louisville is worth +5.9 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.

60% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (30-20 home, 16-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.8 at home vs. away over 95 games — outside the ±6.4 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 335 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Louisville 48, Wake Forest 21Oct 29, 2022

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2021.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Louisville5th1-0
Wake Forest13th0-1

Full ACC standings

Wake Forest upsets No. 16 Louisville 30-27